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There won't be as many NFL games as usual in Week 10 because six teams have byes, yet there are still plenty of games to be excited about. Kansas City at Tennessee is certainly one of them as the Chiefs look to improve to 7-3 on the season and the Titans look to get back to .500.
Both teams have been playing with backup quarterbacks recently. Kansas City because of an injury and Tennessee by choice. Matt Moore, the Chiefs backup, has gone 1-1 in two starts with a 100.9 passer rating while Ryan Tannehill, the Titans backup, has gone 2-1 in three starts with a 99.7 passer rating.
Per Ian Rapoport, however, the Chiefs have a "good chance" of getting Patrick Mahomes back this week against Tennessee.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 P.M ET on CBS.
Mahomes Eyeing Week 10 ReturnThe Kansas City Chiefs have managed without star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, winning two of the three games where backup Matt Moore played the majority of snaps. Moore might not be needed against Tennessee as Mahomes gets closer to a return. According to head coach Andy Reid, the quarterback is day-to-day.
"We're going to see how he does. I think it's going to be day-to-day and see how he handles it. He didn't take a ton of reps last week, so we'll try to increase them here a little bit and see how it works out," Reid said in an ESPN report.
That would be huge for Kansas City, but they're also facing an offense that's feeling themselves after making a quarterback change. The defense needs to be as ready as they were in their last road game against Denver. In said game, the Chiefs allowed Denver to just six points and 205 total yards.
Titans Winning Under TannehillFormer Texas A&M quarterback Ryan Tannehill has rejuvenated the Tennessee Titans offense since taking over for Marcus Mariota in Week 6. In Mariota's last five starts, the Titans managed just 55 combined points for 11 points per game and a 1-4 record. Under Tannehill, the Titans have gone 2-1 with point totals of 23, 27, and 20.
Offensive Coordinator Arthur Smith discusses our Week 10 matchup vs. the Chiefs. pic.twitter.com/xRHWi0NxUy— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) November 7, 2019
Head to head, Tannehill has much better numbers than Mariota this year. Most notably, his 71.8 percent completion percentage dwarfs that of Mariota, who completed 59.1 percent of his attempts in six games. Tannehill also has a better yards per attempt mark (8.4), QBR (50.7), and passer rating (99.7).
Tannehill may be without two of his biggest weapons against Kansas City. Both Delanie Walker and Corey Davis are questionable for the Week 10 matchup. Walker has 21 receptions and two touchdowns while Davis has the most targets on the team (45) and the second-most receptions (28).
- 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. KC.
- 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight-up win.
- 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
This is the sharp side for Kansas City at Tennessee. Old school wiseguys love home dogs and you should as well. The public is all over the Chiefs laying 6.5 (74 percent) but we're fading that action. The Titans have covered in the last three KC-TEN meetings and they're undefeated at home in the Ryan Tannehill era. Tannehill has totally rejuvenated the offense by pushing the ball down the field. His best receiver, A.J. Brown had less than four receptions in every game with Marcus Mariota under center. Under Tannehill, though, he's averaged four receptions per game and has posted his two highest target totals.
Prediction: Tennessee Titans +6.5
Full-Game Total Pick
The oddsmakers have underestimated the change and effect on Tennessee's offense from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill. In the three games with Tannehill starting, the Titans have had three consecutive overs. With Kansas City coming to town, a team with an innovative offensive head coach and a defense that's allowed 27 points per game in their last two games, the over is the correct side again. Kansas City is coming off back-to-back overs and I'd recommend getting action on the over 47.5 early. If Mahomes is announced as playing, the bets are going to come in hot and heavy on the over. Get it now before it goes way up.
Prediction: Over 47.5