Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Fresh off their two two-game winning streaks of the season, the Atlanta Falcons will host division rival Tampa Bay at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. The game is set for a 1:00 P.M ET kickoff on FOX. New Orleans currently leads the NFC South with an 8-2 record but these two 3-7 teams still have a shot with some help.
Tampa Bay needs better play at the quarterback position. Jameis Winston currently leads the NFL in interceptions with 18. No other quarterback even has 15 interceptions this year.
This will be the first meeting of the season between Tampa Bay and Atlanta. They'll also meet in the season finale on Tampa Bay's turf. Atlanta won both meetings last year, though both games were settled by one score.
Tampa Bay is ExplosiveThe Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a rough first season under head coach Bruce Ariens, at least in terms of record. The Bucs are currently 3-7 on the season and have just one win since Week 4 when they upset the LA Rams.
"He’s starting to develop, and it’s about that time. Usually with rookies, it takes until Thanksgiving."— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) November 20, 2019
➡️: HC Bruce Arians on WR Scotty Miller pic.twitter.com/FwsblToaBL
If you have watched the Bucs this year, you know their makeup. This is a team that is going to score on every team they play. They take big shots and are the only losing team with a Top 10 offense. The Bucs rank sixth in points per game (27.7 ppg) and total yards per game (380.4 ypg).
Now, we get to the reason why they're 3-7; Tampa Bay can't stop opposing offenses and Jameis Winston's NFL-leading 18 interceptions put them in tough spots far too often. They currently rank dead last in scoring defense, allowing a head-scratching 31.3 points per game. Even in their wins, they're allowing 27 points per game, and Tampa Bay leads the NFL in giveaways per game (2.5).
Falcons Heating UpDon't look now but the Atlanta Falcons are heating up. They are coming off their first set of back-to-back wins this season, but the damage may already be done. Atlanta is 3-7 on the year and they have less than one-percent chance to make the postseason, per FiveThirtyEight.
LIVE: DQ at the podium https://t.co/F620009gH7— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) November 20, 2019
The Falcons have managed to turn things around without some of their best weapons, which is a testament to Matt Ryan, who missed the game before their two wins, and their defense. The offensive line kept Ryan upright and he delivered. Ryan only took four sacks combined in their last two games after taking 14 combined in his previous four games.
As for the defense, they only allowed 12 points combined in their last two games, both against offenses ranking in the Top 15 in points per game. Every game prior, they allowed at least 20 points and in the four games leading up to their two wins, they were allowing 37.8 points per game.
- 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
- 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight-up win.
- 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
- 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home.
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
This line is a gift, there's no doubt about it. It's a classic situation where the Atlanta Falcons are being overvalued by the public after two straight wins. Public money is coming in heavy on Atlanta (70%) and that tells us all we need to know. Tampa Bay with the points is a must-bet this Sunday. Atlanta is all banged up and their two wins are more fluke than anything else. They showed us who they were over the first two months, and that is a team that cannot stop anyone. Tampa Bay has one of the best offenses in the league and they're the perfect group to put an end to the mini-run by Atlanta. Plus, Tampa Bay hasn't covered in their last six games; they're SO OVERDUE for a cover. That said, the Bucs win outright here.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5
Full-Game Total Pick
Before winning two in a row, the Atlanta Falcons allowed 151 points in their four games prior. This defense isn't great, they were just the beneficiary of two good situations. The game against Tampa Bay is a bad situation; the Falcons rank 26th in passing yards allowed, which is the Bucs strong suit. Plus, they don't force turnovers, which is something that's killed Jameis and the Bucs offense. Atlanta ranks 31st in takeaways per game. On the other side, the Falcons offense has been solid all year. They'll be able to move the ball at will against the Bucs' 32nd ranked defense. This one will be an absolute shootout.
Prediction: Over 51