Featured Video from Scott Reichel
Late season AFC East battle here as the New York Jets host the Miami Dolphins. Neither team is headed to the playoffs, but it's still plenty interesting. The Jets enter at 4-8, while the Dolphins sit at 3-9 following their surprising win over the Eagles last week. This is a revenge game for the Jets after the Dolphins embarrassed them earlier this season. Oddsmakers have the Jets as a decent-sized favorite for this one.
Miami only has three wins this season, yet they have somehow already managed to exceed all expectations. They have quietly turned into a pretty nice story, and people are even beginning to suggest that Brian Flores get Coach of the Year votes. Just this past week they shocked the Eagles in an upset, potentially ruining Philadelphia's playoff chances. This team is fighting hard for Flores, and they aren't going to go quietly.
Following the Jets this season has been akin to riding a rickety roller coaster, and New York is back down again following their ugly loss to the previously winless Bengals this past week. This team has been puzzling all season long, and it's going to be very interesting to see how they finish the year. They have played better at home this season, so perhaps that will give them a boost here.
Dolphins A Lot Of FunThe Dolphins have been having a highly entertaining season. Miami made it no secret this offseason that they weren't planning on winning in 2019, and many expected their tanking to be pretty successful. After losing their first two games by a combined score of 102-10, there was a lot of speculation this Dolphins team could go 0-16.
They started off with seven straight losses, but the guys were still fighting hard for head coach Brian Flores. What they've done since then has been pretty incredible, going 3-2 in their last five games, and some people are now suggesting that Flores deserves Coach of the Year votes. One of those three wins came against this very Jets team about a month ago, as the Dolphins won 28-16. Josh Rosen was briefly installed as the team's starter but that experiment didn't work out, and they have since gone back to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Just this past week Fitzpatrick led the team to a miracle victory over the Dolphins.
Miami is riding high, yet I'm still skeptical they'll be able to carry it over here. Fitzpatrick always has a few huge games per season, and they always turn out to be flukes. Just the week before that they gave up 41 points to the Browns and lost by 17, so it's not like they've had any sustained success this season. Their other win came against the Colts in a very low-scoring game, and that was only because Brian Hoyer was at quarterback for Indianapolis. They're playing hard but they simply don't have enough talent on defense, and they have given up at least 31 points in three straight games. Besides that aforementioned game against the Colts, they've lost every road game this season by at least 10 points.
Jets ConfoundingThe Jets have been one of the strangest teams to follow in the NFL this season. They tore everything down this offseason by firing Todd Bowles and bringing in Adam Gase to be their new head coach. After losing a close game by one point to the Bills back in their opener, things took a disastrous turn. Quarterback Sam Darnold was diagnosed with mono, and would go on to miss the next three games.
They started the year off 0-4, but since Darnold returned they've gone 4-4. They've had some impressive efforts in that time, even beating the Cowboys and beating the Raiders by 31 points two weeks ago. Darnold is still an extremely young player who wasn't able to do any football activities for a while this season, so he understandably struggled a bit when he first returned. He's started to find his groove in Adam Gase's system however, and this Jets offense has produced 34 points in three of their past four games. After rattling off three straight wins things again took a turn for the worse this past week when they lost to the previously winless Bengals.
Everyone is once again hopping off the bandwagon, and once again I think that's an overreaction. Just the week before that they dominated a solid Oakland team by 31 points, and it's important not to overreact to one loss even if it's ugly. The defense has been playing a lot better recently, although it looks like they will be without a key piece here. You'll have to check back closer to game time but it looks like star safety Jamal Adams isn't going to play in this one, which is a big loss. The Jets have won three of their last four home games, and the only loss in that span was to the Patriots.
Trends, courtesy of Covers.com: Jets are:
- 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 14
- 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games in December
- 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games
The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.
Full-Game Side Bet
I think there's a lot of value on the Jets here. This spread would have been larger had the Jets not just lost to Cincinnati this past week, and I think people are overreacting to just one game. This is still a New York team that had just rattled off three straight victories with at least 34 points in each game, and I'm not completely souring on them just yet. This is also a chance for revenge for the Jets after the Dolphins embarrassed them about a month ago. Miami has put up some good fights at home, but they've been much worse on the road.
Prediction: Jets -5.5
Full-Game Total Pick
I also like the over a lot in this spot. Miami still has one of the worst defenses in the league, and I don't think oddsmakers are accounting enough for that here with a total in the mid-40s. The Dolphins have given up at least 31 points in three straight games, and New York's offense had been playing really well until last week. Fitzpatrick is going to swing the ball all over the field with reckless abandon, which should lead to some easy points for both teams. I think this one has sneaky shootout potential.
Prediction: Over 45