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New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 9-15-2019

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Game Snapshot with Current Line

#269 New England
Patriots
#270 Miami
Dolphins

Sunday, September 15, 2019 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

Featured Video from Scott Reichel

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Where: Hard Rock Stadium

When: Sunday, September 15, 2019, 1:00 pm ET

We have an AFC East matchup to discuss for Sunday when the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins meet for the 108th time in their respective franchise’s history. Miami has a slim, 55-52 edge in the series between the two National Football League franchises.

New England enters this game as the defending Super Bowl Champion and thrashed the Pittsburgh Steelers in their home opener by a score of 33-3.  Miami opened their season at home against the Baltimore Ravens and was soundly beaten by a score of 59-10.

 

New England Routs Pittsburgh

Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 341 yards and three touchdowns and wide receiver Phillip Dorsett snagged four passes for 95 yards and two touchdowns in their home-opening victory over the Steelers.

Brady looked strong against Pittsburgh on Sunday night, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 341 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Brady was sacked once but that had more to do with his inability to duck a blitz and likely couldn’t be prevented. He’s up against a Miami defense that allowed Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III to throw for six touchdowns and 378 passing yards on Sunday.

The Dolphins allowed 265 rushing yards in their season opener and the Patriots have plenty of depth in their backfield. Running back Rex Burkhead rushed for 44 yards, running back James White rushed for 26 yards and running back Sony Michael added 14 rushing yards. It could be any one of these guys doing damage on any given Sunday, but that trifecta might be the best in the NFL.

As previously mentioned, Dorsett led the Patriots in receiving, catching all four of his targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Julian Edelman chipped in with six catches for 83 yards and wide receiver Josh Gordon caught three of four targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. New England signed free agent wide receiver Antonio Brown last Saturday and while he did practice on Wednesday, his future is up in the air following some legal woes. The Dolphins and their 379 receiving yards allowed are going to have their hands full on Sunday.

New England was 0-3 inside the Red Zone and was flagged seven times for 55 yards and was without a single turnover in their home rout of Pittsburgh.

Miami Blown out in Home Opener

Rookie Head Coach Brian Flores took to the field Sunday hoping for a good showing by his Dolphins and instead left to a smattering of boos from the Dolphins faithful in the aftermath of a 59-10 beatdown at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens. The Dolphins lone touchdown was a late second-quarter Ryan Fitzpatrick pass to rookie wide receiver Preston Williams.

Fitzpatrick threw for 185 yards, one touchdown and tossed one interception before getting pulled in favor of Josh Rosen. Fitzpatrick succumbed to the constant Ravens pressure and was sacked twice on the day. He’s up against a Patriots defense that allowed 276 passing yards without a score and intercepted Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger once last Sunday.

Miami managed 12 rushing yards on the day mostly due to the big hole their defense dug for them early in the first quarter. The Patriots allowed Pittsburgh just 32 yards and that was mostly due to Roethlisberger being forced to throw early and often. Look for Dolphins running back Kenyon Drake to try and get something established on the ground Sunday afternoon.

Wide receiver DeVante Parker hauled in three of his seven targets for 75 yards and he and the rest of the Dolphins receivers are going to have their hands full against a Patriots defense allowing 276 receiving yards to a solid Steelers receiving corps.

The Dolphins were 1-1 in the Red Zone but turned the ball over three times and flagged nine times for 64 yards in their loss to Baltimore.

DB Eric Rowe is looking forward to facing his old team.

“I practiced against that offense for the last three years,” Rowe said. “Even down here, we kind of have a similar offense. I kind of know … even if you studied film, we all know where (Tom) Brady likes to go with the ball. I know Gronk’s not there anymore. It’s still Edelman, (Josh) Gordon, I’m not sure what they’re going to do with AB (Antonio Brown), but it’s always going to be Edelman, though. I know that’s his boy. Even though I practiced against the offense, we can all see on film kind of who he likes.”

Updated on Sep 15 at 4:25am EDT

Update prepared by our editoral staff

Public Money / Line Movements

The Patriots have gone from -14.5 up -18 while getting 61% of the bets. The Sharps are clearly helping out the line movement on the Patriots.

Injury / Weather Report

New England’s Impact Injury Report

Questionable: TE Matt LaCosse and OT Marcus Cannon

Out: RB Brandon Bolden 

Miami’s Impact Injury Report

Questionable: DB Bobby McCain and DE Trent Harris

Out: WR Albert Wilson and DB Reshad Jones

Gametime Weather: Upper 80s and it will feel like it is upper 90s. Scattered Thunderstorms as well.

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

It’s hard not to pull the trigger on the Patriots against the woeful Dolphins. New England is heads and tails better than Miami at everything in football except losing. The Patriots have so many weapons at their disposal as well as a Hall of Fame quarterback and coach and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Patriots beat Miami by 30 points on Sunday.

There’s always the danger of a Patriots letdown and a Dolphins bounceback, but I don’t see that happening here. The Patriots defense is too good and the offense too deep for the Dolphins to handle on Sunday.

I’m laying the wood and playing New England to cover on Sunday!

Prediction: Patriots -18.5

Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

This is a tough one because we don’t really know if Belichick is going to step on the gas or not. My best bet is that he doesn’t and the final score resembles their game with Pittsburgh more than what happened with the Ravens and Dolphins.

I see a complete first half Patriots mauling of the Dolphins and New England taking the air out of the ball and let the backfield get some work in the 2nd half. I don’t see these two teams exceeding the total on Sunday.

I’m playing the UNDER on Sunday!!

Prediction: Under 47

Phil Naessens

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