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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans Prediction,
Preview,
and Odds - 9-20-2020

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#279 Jacksonville
Jaguars 7.5
#280 Tennessee
Titans -7.5

Sunday, September 20, 2020 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

AFC South action here as the Tennessee Titans host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee is coming off a thrilling Monday Night Football win over the Broncos, while Jacksonville picked up a huge upset win over the Colts. Oddsmakers have the Titans as a huge favorite here, so the Jags will need to defy the odds for a second straight week.

Last season, the Titans won at home 42-20, but lost on the road, 20-7.

Line Movements

The Titans have gone from -11 down to -7.5 with the Jags snatching up 74% of the bets.

The OU Line has gone from 43 up to 44, despite the Under getting the 60% of the bets.

Gametime Weather: Sunny with temps in the mid-70s

Jags Score Huge Win

The Jacksonville Jaguars managed to pull off the biggest upset of Week 1 by knocking off the Indianapolis Colts as underdogs of more than a touchdown. The Jags were widely expected to be the worst team in the league this season, so the importance of the opening win can't be understated. That all being said, when you dig into it the win was pretty clearly lucky. They were severely out-gained by the Colts, both in terms of total yardage and yards per play. It took a missed 30-yard field goal, a blown fourth and short, and a couple of Philip Rivers miscues for them to squeak out the win. They didn't force a single Indianapolis punt all game.

Gardner Minshew was efficient but didn't have to do too much, only attempting 20 passes. The Colts let him have whatever he wanted underneath, and now he'll be facing a Titans defense that will be much more aggressive. Mike Vrabel surely is watching this Week 1 tape, and I think he's going to have his guys play a lot more tight coverage and not give up anything easy. The Jags are blatantly tanking this season no matter how much they insist otherwise, as they traded pretty much everyone of value on defense. Jalen Ramsey, A.J. Bouye, Yannick Ngakoue, Ronnie Harrison, and Calais Campbell are all gone now, and this is one of the youngest units in the league. It's probably going to be downhill from now.

Jacksonville’s Injury Report

Out: TE Tyler Davis

Tennessee’s Injury Report

Questionable: DB Malcolm Butler, OG Jamil Douglas, LB Vic Beasley, and LB Derick Roberson

Out: WR A.J. Brown and RB Darrynton Evans

Titans Escape With Win

The Tennessee Titans also won in Week 1, although it certainly came down to the wire. They only won by two points on a last-second Stephen Gostkowski field goal, but in reality, it shouldn't have been that close. Gostkowski had already missed three kicks and an extra point, which is the only reason the outcome was in doubt in the first place. Derrick Henry wasn't quite as dominant as usual, but I think most of the offense's lack of rhythm can be attributed to the altitude. It's always tough to play in Denver early in the year, especially with an early offseason. Henry should have a much better game here in this one.

Tennessee's defense looked pretty dang good as they limited the Broncos to only 14 points. There are reasons to believe it will only get better, as the recently signed Jadeveon Clowney will now have had another week to acclimate himself to the system. Crucial linebacker Rashaan Evans was also ejected for fighting early on Monday night, and they'll now have him back for a full game. The Jaguars had pretty much no big plays against Indianapolis, so Tennessee can afford to get aggressive and send plenty of pressure. They limited Drew Lock to just 6.5 yards per attempt, and now they'll be at home where they'll be much more comfortable.

On the injury front, WR A.J. Brown (knee) is out for this one, but they will have Corey Davis (probable) available.

Jacksonville’s Injury Report

Out: TE Tyler Davis

Tennessee’s Injury Report

Questionable: DB Malcolm Butler, OG Jamil Douglas, LB Vic Beasley, and LB Derick Roberson

Out: WR A.J. Brown and RB Darrynton Evans

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet
Rating:

I don't think this one is going to be particularly close, and I'm laying the points with the Titans. When you dig into the box score it becomes clear Jacksonville's Week 1 win was fraudulent, and they aren't likely to repeat it. Tennessee's rushing attack should overpower Jacksonville's young defense, and as soon as the Jags are playing from behind I expect them to completely crumble. Now is the perfect time to sell high on Gardner Minshew following his strong performance, as he's bound to come down to earth. This line was much higher on the lookahead line before Week 1, so there's value in this number.

Prediction: Titans -7.5

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Full-Game Total Pick
Rating:

I also think this total is a little too low. Jacksonville let Indianapolis move the ball up and down the field at will, and only a few blundering miscues stopped the Colts from scoring a ton. The Titans' offense understandably looked a little rusty due to playing in the altitude in Week 1, and I expect them to be a lot sharper here. The Jags will be down big early on and will have no choice but to start chucking to try to catch up, which will keep the clock stopped in the second half.

Prediction: Over 44

Alex Porter , "The Stash"

Alex Porter is one of the premier minds in basketball and football handicapping. With a degree in statistics, Alex uses advanced metrics as well as copious amounts of film study to make his picks. Since starting his betting career at the age of 18, the recent college graduate has never had a losing football season. We are very glad to have Alex as a part of our team here at StatSalt.

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