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San Francisco 49ers vs. New York Giants Prediction,
and Odds - 9-27-2020

Game Snapshot with Current Line

#467 San Francisco
49ers -3.5
#468 New York
Giants 3.5

Sunday, September 27, 2020 at 1:00pm

Image licensed from USA Today Sports

NFC action here as the New York Giants host the San Francisco 49ers. It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo isn't going to play here, and the 49ers are severely banged up. The Giants have had some bad injury luck too, with Saquon Barkley tearing his ACL. Oddsmakers have the 49ers as a modest favorite for this early kickoff.

Line Movements:

The line on this contest has moved substantially during the course of the week. San Francisco opened as a 6.5-point favorite but that has been trimmed nearly in half as they now are a 3.5-point favorite. The picks are split at 50/50 when it comes to betting ATS on this contest.

The over/under has remained flat all week long as it opened at 42.5 points and stayed there. Much like the ATS bets, the bets are split 50/50 on which side of the total the game will fall on.

Game-time Weather: Temperature at kickoff is expected to be in the mid-70s though the real-feel will reach just about 80 degrees. The temperature will fall just short of 80 as the game wears on. Winds are expected from the southeast about six miles an hour with gusts still falling short of 10 miles an hour. There is an increasing chance of precipitation as the game wears on, from about 25 percent at kickoff to around 50 percent near the game's end. That is something to keep an eye on.

49ers are Very Banged Up

The San Francisco 49ers have had some truly brutal injury luck, and that's the story of the team right now. It looks like quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo will miss this one with an ankle injury, with Nick Mullens starting in his place. Somehow that's not even their most significant injury at the moment, as star pass-rusher Nick Bosa tore his ACL in Week 2. San Fran's imposing defensive front was the engine of their Super Bowl run last season, and now that unit is completely depleted. They traded away DeForest Buckner this offseason, and are now without him, Bosa, Solomon Thomas, and Dee Ford.

Thomas also messed up his knee while Ford is dealing with a back issue, and I don't know how they're going to get pressure on Daniel Jones now, who tends to force the ball into coverage when under duress. They're also banged up on offense, and will still be without top receiver Deebo Samuel. Tight end George Kittle looks like he'll return, but he won't be 100 percent. Top cornerback Richard Sherman is also still on injured reserve, and running backs Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman are now hurt as well. It's truly insane what has happened, and they could be demoralized. Even with less injuries, they still didn't look good in Week 1, losing as large favorites to the Cardinals. They bounced back in Week 2, but I don't think I can give them too much credit for beating the lowly New York Jets.

Injury Report:

OUT: WR Tavon Austin, WR Travis Benjamin, DL Ronald Blair III, DL Nick Bosa, OL Jake Brendel, T Shon Coleman, RB Tevin Coleman, DL Dee Ford, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, LB Dre Greenlaw, WR Jalen Hurd, WR Richie James, TE George Kittle, RB Raheem Mostert, C Weston Richburg, CB Richard Sherman, WR Deebo Samuel, DL Jullian Taylor, DL Solomon Thomas, WR Chris Thompson

Questionable: CB Ahkello Witherspoon

Giants Need A Win

The New York Giants are 0-2 under new head coach Joe Judge, but they have shown an impressive amount of fight. They've also had to face two tough defenses in the Steelers and the Bears. Both of those teams had imposing pass-rushes that were able to get after Daniel Jones, and with San Francisco's defensive line so banged up they might have a much easier time moving the ball. They very nearly beat Chicago, coming all the way back on the road to have the ball on the ten-yard line with a chance to win the game as time expired. The Giants haven't been able to escape the injury bug either, as Saquon Barkley, unfortunately, tore his ACL in Week 2. They did sign veteran RB Devonta Freeman off waivers to replace him.

It's a brutal blow, although Barkley hadn't had much room to run, so it might not actually impact the offense too much. Darius Slayton is a playmaker, and with guys like Evan Engram and Golden Tate, he still has plenty of weapons. Sterling Shepard has a toe injury, and you'll need to monitor his status for this one. On the defensive side of the ball, they look a lot better. Top corner James Bradberry is an upgrade to the secondary, and the run defense has been solid. When Jones has time to throw and go through his reads he has looked quite good, and New York's offensive line will be the X-Factor here.

Injury Report:

OUT: RB Saquon Barkley, CB Sam Beal, WR Cody Core, DB Jaquarius Landrews, LB David Mayo, S Xavier McKinney, WR Da'Mari Scott, WR Sterling Shepard, WR David Sills V, T Nate Solder, CB Shakial Taylor

Doubtful: DB Adrian Colbert

Questionable: CB Brandon Williams

The Bottom Line What to bet on this game.

Full-Game Side Bet

I think the Giants are going to cover this spread, and they've got a good chance to win this game outright. The 49ers have to be demoralized after the absurd rash of injuries they've suffered, while the Giants are desperate for a win here at 0-2. New York has had to play two really tough defenses in Pittsburgh and Chicago, and they should be able to move the ball better here against this banged-up 49ers unit. The Giants have a strong run defense, so I don't think the 49ers will be able to run much, which will force the ball into Nick Mullens' hands.

Prediction: Giants +3.5

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Full-Game Total Pick

I also like the over a lot here, and it's one of my favorite plays of the week. This total is way too low, as oddsmakers are overcompensating for the injuries to Garoppolo and Barkley. The injuries on defense for San Francisco are actually more significant, as they're now without Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Richard Sherman, and Solomon Thomas. I also don't think there's that big of a difference between Garoppolo and Mullens at this point. The Giants have had to face two dominant defensive fronts in a row, and now they'll get to face this banged-up San Fran unit. The 49ers won't be able to run, so expect them to be airing it out early and often even with Mullens, who Kyle Shanahan fully trusts.

Prediction: Over 42.5

Alex Porter , "The Stash"

Alex Porter is one of the premier minds in basketball and football handicapping. With a degree in statistics, Alex uses advanced metrics as well as copious amounts of film study to make his picks. Since starting his betting career at the age of 18, the recent college graduate has never had a losing football season. We are very glad to have Alex as a part of our team here at StatSalt.

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