2025 Baylor Football Preview Presented by GoldSheet | Big XII Football
Expectations are high for the Baylor football team in 2025 as Dave Aranda’s team returns almost everyone from last year’s squad. With stability at quarterback and in the coaching staff, the Bears have an opportunity to make a big leap in the Big XII this season.
2025 Baylor Football Team Preview
Big XII Betting Odds
| Team | 2024 Record | 2025 Win Total | Big XII Odds | Nat’l Champ Odds |
| Arizona | 4-8 (2-7) | 5.5 (o -105 / u -115) | +4500 | +100000 |
| Arizona State | 11-3 (7-2) | 8.5 (o EV / u -120) | +550 | +10000 |
| Baylor | 8-5 (6-3) | 7.5 (o -105 / u -115) | +700 | +18000 |
| BYU | 11-2 (7-2) | 6.5 (o -125 / u +105) | +2000 | +30000 |
| Cincinnati | 5-7 (3-6) | 6.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +3000 | +100000 |
| Colorado | 9-4 (7-2) | 5.5 (o -120 / u EV) | +2800 | +30000 |
| Houston | 4-8 (3-6) | 6.5 (o +110 / u -130) | +3500 | +80000 |
| Iowa State | 11-3 (7-2) | 7.5 (o +115 / u -135) | +1100 | +20000 |
| Kansas | 5-7 (4-5) | 6.5 (o -160 / u +135) | +1800 | +30000 |
| Kansas State | 9-4 (5-4) | 8.5 (o -115 / u -105) | +550 | +10000 |
| Oklahoma State | 3-9 (0-9) | 4.5 (o -200 / u +165) | +5500 | +50000 |
| TCU | 9-4 (6-3) | 6.5 (o -160 / u +135) | +850 | +25000 |
| Texas Tech | 8-5 (6-3) | 8.5 (o -155 / u +130) | +600 | +10000 |
| UCF | 4-8 (2-7) | 5.5 (o EV / u -120) | +5500 | +50000 |
| Utah | 5-7 (2-7) | 7.5 (o -175 / u +135) | +600 | +11000 |
| West Virginia | 6-7 (5-4) | 5.5 (o +115 / u -140) | +4000 | +50000 |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 11. The Bears went 8-5 straight-up, 9-4 against the spread last season with a loss to LSU in the Texas Bowl. Baylor won-and-covered each of its last six regular season games after some narrow losses to start the season.
Baylor Football Roster
Projected Returning Starters: 18 (ten on offense and eight on defense)
Projected Starting QB: Sawyer Robertson (Returning)
Returning Production: 70-percent (77-percent on offense and 63-percent on defense)
Incoming Talent Class: No. 40 Nationally / No. 4 in Big XII
Coaching Changes: No major changes. Head coach Dave Aranda, offensive coordinator Jake Spavital and defensive coordinator Matt Powledge have all returned to Waco.
Returning starters are courtesy of Phil Steele’s 2025 College Football Preview Magazine. Returning production is courtesy of Bill Connelly’s conference preview series at ESPN. Incoming talent rankings are courtesy of 247 Sports’ Composite Ratings, which capture the talent rankings of both incoming freshman and incoming transfers.
2024 Baylor Football Stats
Strength of Schedule: No. 23 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential: +6 (No. 35 nationally)
Plays per Game: 70.9 (No. 41)
Seconds per Play: 23.7 (No. 16)
Average Time of Possession: 28:01 (No. 112)
Baylor Football Stats on Offense
Yards per Game: 440.1 (No. 20)
Points per Game: 34.4 (No. 19)
Yards per Play: 6.33 (No. 22)
Offensive Success Rate: 45.2-percent (No. 22)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards): 79 (No. 6)
Net EPA per Play: +0.09 (No. 44)
Baylor Football Stats on Defense
Yards per Game Allowed: 386.2 (No. 87)
Points per Game Allowed: 26.7 (No. 81)
Yards per Play Allowed: 5.68 (No. 77)
Defensive Success Rate: 38.3-percent (No. 35)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards): 67 (No. 114)
Success Rate is an advanced metric that factors in the down and distance in relation to yards gained. A two-yard gain for a running back doesn’t look great in his overall box score, however a two-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 is a successful play. A low success rate on defense means you’re doing a good job of stopping the opponent from achieving successful plays. EPA stands for expected points added per play and it is a measure of how many points a team adds (or loses) on each play compared to the expected value.
2025 Baylor Football Schedule
2025 Football GoldSheet Newsletter
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WagerTalk Live Odds Screen
WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Baylor football games from their release in May all the way through Week 1 in August. Find free college football picks from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.
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