UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs Borralho Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds September 6, 2025

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for September 3, 2025 with the main event headlined by Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho in a middleweight fight. The main card starts up at 3:00pm ET from the Accor Arena in Paris, France!

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Nassourdine Imavov vs Caio Borralho: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, September 6	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Nassourdine Imavov +110 vs Caio Borralho -130
Rounds:	4.5 (Over -190 / Under +145)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 3:00pm ET / 12:00pm PT
Arena:	Accor Arena in Paris, France
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions: Undercard

Sam Hughes -305 vs Shauna Bannon +245 

Shauna Bannon simply hasn’t looked like UFC-level competition, and her last win was more luck than skill—she was dropped badly and nearly finished before pulling off a desperation armbar against a low-level opponent.

Sam Hughes, on the other hand, is undersized for the division but makes up for it with excellent cardio, constant forward pressure, and the ability to  grind opponents down with takedowns.

Bannon’s striking is basic, not especially fast or  powerful, and won’t be enough to deter Hughes from marching forward.

With Hughes’ pace and  ground control, she should be able to take over the fight in the later rounds. The most likely outcome is Hughes by decision, as her relentless style overwhelms Bannon across three rounds.

Andreas Gustafsson -118 vs Rinat Fakhretdinov -102 

I’ve been high on Andreas Gustafsson since his Contender Series appearance, and this is another  spot where his style looks overwhelming.

He’s brutally physical in the clinch, driving opponents against the fence and battering them with heavy shots to the head and body until they wilt.

Rinat Fakhretdinov prefers to lean on his wrestling, but in his last fight against Carlos Leal he struggled at times even though Leal was on short notice.

If he can’t consistently keep Gustafsson off him, the nonstop pressure and power from Gustafsson will take over.

Over three rounds, Gustafsson’s aggression should eventually break Rinat down, making Gustafsson the pick.

Brad Tavares -230 vs Robert Bryczek +190 

This is a fight where neither man really stands out. Brad Tavares has been a UFC veteran for a long time, but at this stage of his career his volume is low, his striking is fairly predictable, and while he still has solid takedown defense, he no longer looks as sharp as he once did.

His recent win came over Gerald Meerschaert, but that’s less impressive given Meerschaert’s limited  striking ability.

Robert Bryczek earned his UFC shot with a lot of finishes on the regional scene, but his debut was underwhelming as he fought conservatively and went the distance.

That said, he’s likely to be the busier striker here, and with more activity he could edge close rounds,  making him the right side at this price even if the pick isn’t especially confident.

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Sam Patterson -162 vs Trey Waters +136 

Sam Patterson fights are almost always volatile, and that makes unders attractive. He has legitimate finishing ability with both knockouts and submissions, but his tendency to leave his  chin exposed means he can be finished just as easily.

Trey Waters has gone the distance in both  of his UFC bouts, relying more on volume and accuracy than raw power, but his style still leaves room for danger against Patterson’s aggression.

Both men are tall with long reach, so expect each to have some success at range, but Patterson’s ground game stands out as the biggest difference-maker.

Waters was overwhelmed and submitted by Bonfim on Contender Series, and  Patterson could replicate that blueprint, making Patterson by finish the pick.

Axel Sola -135 v Rhys McKee +120 

Axel Sola makes his UFC debut here, and while he has the advantage of fighting in his home country of France, it’s debatable whether he would have earned the shot without that factor.

His striking looks serviceable, but he’s been dropped by lower-level competition in the past, raising  questions about how he’ll handle the step up.

He does have some ability to clinch and mix in takedowns, but overall, his resume doesn’t scream UFC-ready.

Rhys McKee, meanwhile, has  already faced higher-level competition, and his striking should be sharper and more consistent in this matchup. Given Sola’s unproven status and defensive concerns, the lean is McKee, especially at plus money.

Ante Delija -118 vs Marcin Tybura -102 

Ante Delija makes his UFC debut here, but it’s tough to know how ready he truly is for this level. His recent record is padded with wins over lower-level competition, and when he faced a top opponent like Moldavsky, he was hurt and finished quickly in the first round.

Delija brings  power in his striking and a solid ground game, but fighters coming over from Bellator and PFL have often struggled in their UFC debuts.

Marcin Tybura may be 39, but he’s still finding ways  to win, largely by forcing fights into grappling exchanges and leaning on his ground skills.

Delija may start fast, but his tendency to fade over three rounds gives the edge to Tybura, who looks  like the pick in this spot.

Oumar Sy -380 vs Brendson Ribeiro +300 

Oumar Sy enters this fight looking to bounce back from the first loss of his career against Alonzo  Menifield, and I love backing fighters in that spot.

His biggest strength is in the clinch, where his physicality can overwhelm opponents, though his lack of striking volume cost him in that last outing.

Brendson Ribeiro has shown flashes of improvement, particularly with a submission win two fights ago, but he was knocked out by Murzakanov in his following bout and has been stopped by strikes in four of his last five losses.

For Ribeiro to pull off the upset, he would need  to stay off the fence, use his kicks, and maintain a high pace, which is not something he’s been able to do consistently.

Sy’s strength and control make him the rightful pick, but at such a heavy price, it’s not worth betting—especially given his striking limitations.

William Gomis -230 vs Robert Ruchala +190 

William Gomis has shown steady improvement since entering the UFC. Early on he looked unpolished, but his last two fights against physical opponents like Brito and Amil proved he has the heart and toughness to hang at this level.

His style relies on distance management with a  karate stance, but he can get wild with spinning attacks and has a tendency to fade, which doesn’t always look great to the judges.

Robert Ruchala, meanwhile, is a very active striker with  constant movement, and he supplements that activity with takedowns and strong top control; his only career loss came to a highly experienced opponent with a 17-1 record.

Given Gomis’  history of close split decisions and Ruchala’s pace and cardio, this fight looks primed to go deep, and the pick is Ruchala by decision at this price.

Losene Keita -205 v Patricio Pitbull +170 

Patricio Pitbull pulled off the upset against Dan Ige, but that result was more about Ige underperforming than Pitbull looking dominant.

The oddsmakers seem to agree, making him the  underdog here despite his experience and name value. Losene Keita, making his UFC debut, brings real athleticism, speed, and knockout power from his success in the OKTAGON promotion, where he’s already beaten high-level competition.

Pitbull’s best path is to slow things down with clinch work and grind Keita against the fence, but at this stage of his career he looks too slow and worn to execute that game plan effectively.

With youth, explosiveness, and momentum on his side, Keita is the pick to make a statement in his debut.

Fares Ziam -340 vs Kaue Fernandes +270 

Fares Ziam is a fighter I initially wasn’t high on, but his development has made me a believer. His striking has sharpened considerably—he uses his length effectively with jabs and kicks—and  he’s shown the ability to hold top position and deal damage on the ground.

Kaue Fernandes, however, is no pushover; he’s coming off a dominant win over Guram Kutateladze where his leg  kicks, striking, and takedown defense all looked excellent.

That makes this line feel too wide, as Fernandes has the tools to keep this competitive. Instead of picking a side, the better play looks like the fight to go the distance, as both men are durable with strong cardio and this projects as a close decision.

Modestas Bukauskas -325 vs Paul Craig +260 

This fight sets up as another opportunity to fade Paul Craig, who has been one-dimensional  throughout his UFC career.

His striking is sloppy, his wrestling is ineffective, and outside of pulling off opportunistic submissions, he doesn’t have a reliable path to victory.

He’s managed just one win in his last seven, and his most recent fight ended in a strange no contest after nearly being finished from bottom position before landing an illegal upkick.

On the other side, Modestas Bukauskas has strung together three straight wins, showing solid striking and much more composure inside the cage.

As long as he avoids getting caught in a submission, Bukauskas  should comfortably make it four in a row with his stand-up.

Mason Jones -142 vs Bolaji Oki +120 

Bolaji Oki hasn’t shown the upside many expected when he entered the UFC. His split-decision win over Cuamba was unimpressive, he was submitted by Duncan, and though he beat Aswell in his last fight, that came against a short-notice opponent moving up in weight—a fight he should have finished but didn’t.

His striking defense remains questionable, and he often relies on opponents making mistakes for openings.

Mason Jones, meanwhile, is getting a second UFC run and looked strong in his recent win over Jeremy Stephens, where he displayed sharp striking along with effective clinch and takedown work.

With his more complete skill set and experience, Jones looks poised to expose Oki’s flaws and get the win.

Mauricio Ruffy -192 vs Benoit Saint Denis +160 

There are a lot of concerns about Benoit Saint Denis at this point in his career. After years of wear on his body from both his MMA career and his military background, he’s looked physically broken in his recent losses to Moicano and Poirier, where he simply couldn’t withstand the  pressure.

His rebound win came against Kyle Prepolec, who had no business being in the UFC, and while Saint Denis eventually finished him in the second round, he didn’t look impressive in doing so.

Mauricio Ruffy, meanwhile, is an explosive striker with massive power and pinpoint accuracy, representing the Fighting Nerds camp that has consistently turned out sharp game plans with stars like Jean Silva and Caio Borralho.

If Ruffy keeps this standing, his striking should overwhelm Saint Denis, and the most likely outcome is Ruffy by knockout in a bad stylistic matchup for the Frenchman.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Nassourdine Imavov +110 vs Caio Borralho -130

Caio Borralho has been a sharp betting target since his Contender Series days, and his game continues to evolve.

He’s shown excellent wrestling and ground control throughout his UFC run,  but what really stands out is how much his striking has improved—he went five rounds striking with Jared Cannonier and held his own.

As the founder of the Fighting Nerds gym, he  consistently comes in with elite game plans that maximize his strengths and exploit opponent weaknesses.

Imavov may be on a solid winning streak, but the wins don’t stand out as elite— beating a faded Adesanya, a decision over Brendan Allen, and a late KO of Cannonier while trailing on the scorecards. Borralho’s ability to outsmart opponents, bank rounds, and mix his skill set makes him the pick here.

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