Friday College Football Week 9 Predictions: North Texas vs Charlotte, Cal vs Virginia Tech, Boise State vs Nevada
North Texas vs Charlotte
Kickoff: 7:00PM ET on ESPN2
This matchup opens the night with North Texas hitting the road as a hefty favorite against Charlotte, and for good reason. Charlotte ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in both offense and defense, in most analyst power ratings
In contrast, North Texas boasts a top-10 ranked offense, averaging over 70 total points per game combined in their matchups this season.
North Texas is scoring at a blistering rate — averaging 45 points per game in wins. However, their defense is far from elite, barely cracking the top 100.
The concern for this matchup lies not in the Mean Green’s ability to score, but whether Charlotte can contribute enough offensively to threaten the spread or total.
Adding to Charlotte’s woes, their starting quarterback Connor Harrell is questionable. If he sits, the backups bring significantly worse passing metrics — potentially limiting scoring chances even further.
North Texas vs Charlotte Predictions: North Texas -25.5 / Team Total Over 42.5
We project North Texas to win by exactly 26 points, mirroring the current spread. With no significant line value remaining, the safest betting angle may be North Texas’s team total over 42.5, as they’ve hit 45+ points in all six wins this season.
Cal vs Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 7:30PM ET on ESPN
In the primetime ESPN slot, Virginia Tech hosts Cal in an ACC showdown with more betting intrigue. While Virginia Tech’s 2-5 start may not inspire confidence, they enter this game off a bye week, and this national TV spotlight could spark a top-tier effort.
Virginia Tech has played a much tougher schedule than Cal, including matchups against Vanderbilt and South Carolina early in the season.
When not facing SEC-level competition, the Hokies have been more competitive — including a 229-yard rushing effort against NC State.
Our simulation gives Virginia Tech an 8-point edge, which offers solid line value at the current -6.5 spread. Despite some opt-outs and overall disappointment this season, Tech could treat this as a “statement game” under the Friday night lights.
Cal vs Virginia Tech Predictions: Virginia Tech -6.5
On the other side, Cal has struggled offensively — averaging only 3.1 yards per carry and failing to establish any consistent run or pass game. Though their defensive metrics are decent, they may be inflated due to a weaker schedule.
If the Hokies show up motivated — as expected in a rare national TV home game — Virginia Tech should cover comfortably.
Boise State vs Nevada
Kickoff: 10:00PM ET on CBSSN
The night wraps up with Boise State traveling to Nevada. While the Broncos are double-digit favorites, the most valuable play might be found in team totals.
Boise State’s offense is explosive, averaging 37 points per game. Despite a key injury to top receiver Ben Ford (out for the season), the team has a deep receiving corps and hasn’t skipped a beat when rolling.
Our simulation predicts a 23-point win, slightly above the current 21.5-point spread. We prefer a spread of 21 or lower for optimal value due to key number importance, but notes that Boise’s team total over 36.5 may be the safest bet.
Boise is 5-2 straight up, and in all five wins, they’ve scored 41+ points and covered the spread. This trend strongly supports Boise State covering if they win, and the team total over as a correlated play.
Boise State vs Nevada Predictions: Boise State -21 / Team Total Over 36.5
Nevada, meanwhile, is a bottom-10 offense (on average ranked 130th by analysts) and has gone under in 5 of their last 6 games. Their defense also ranks outside the top 100, creating a clear mismatch.
While Nevada has covered as a big underdog on a couple occasions, the edge remains with Boise State’s offense to dominate — especially if you can grab over 36.5 on their team total.
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