Friday Night College Football Week 11 Picks & Predictions: Houston vs UCF, Northwestern vs USC, Tulane vs Memphis
Houston vs UCF
Kickoff: 8:00PM ET on FS1
The first game of the night kicks off at 8:00 Eastern on Fox Sports 1, where the Houston Cougars visit the Central Florida Knights in Orlando. Early money has shifted slightly toward Houston, who opened as a one-point road underdog but are now a one-point favorite.
However, according to a 10,000-game simulation model, that line movement may be misplaced. The projections show UCF winning by an average of more than 3.5 points, positioning them as a strong home underdog.
Matchup Breakdown
Both programs enter this game off a loss, but the circumstances differ:
- UCF was blown out 30–3 at Baylor, a result that masks their underlying strengths.
- The Knights have struggled with turnovers, committing four in their past two games, and have dropped four of their last five overall.
Despite that, one of those five recent games stands out — a 45–13 win over West Virginia. That same Mountaineer team defeated Houston just last week, handing the Cougars a home loss as a two-touchdown favorite.
Houston vs UCF Prediction: UCF +1.5
Houston’s high-scoring loss may linger, particularly after a four-turnover deficit, while UCF’s profile suggests a potential bounce-back. The Knights average nearly 200 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry, compared to Houston’s lower ground efficiency.
Since this matchup is priced near a pick’em, UCF should be able to establish its running game and control tempo.
⭐ Pick Rating: 4 Stars
Tulane vs Memphis
Kickoff: 9:00PM ET on ESPN
The second game on Friday’s card is a crucial Group of Five matchup between Tulane and Memphis, airing at 9:00 Eastern on ESPN.
Memphis continues to chase a potential playoff berth from the G5 ranks and has played consistent football all year. Their only loss came to UAB, a game in which starting quarterback Brendan Lewis was injured mid-contest. The Tigers fell 31–24 in that outing but have rebounded since.
Quarterback Health and Line Movement
Lewis returned for the past two games, leading Memphis to wins over Central Florida and South Florida. However, he suffered a leg injury in last week’s 38–14 win over Rice, exiting in the fourth quarter.
He practiced on Monday and is expected to play, but the market has priced in uncertainty. The line opened Memphis –6.5 and dropped to –3.5 to –4 by Thursday.
Despite the dip, projections show Memphis winning by more than 11 points on average when Lewis starts. Even with backup AJ Hill (who played in that UAB game), the Tigers maintain value as a favorite.
Tulane vs Memphis Predictions: Memphis -3.5
Memphis has been one of the most reliable teams against the number. Oddsmakers have struggled to adjust, as the Tigers have gone 8–1 straight up and covered in every game but one—that lone miss coming in the UAB loss when Lewis was hurt.
Tulane, meanwhile, has struggled recently, covering only once in its last five games. Simulations show a strong edge toward Memphis at the current line.
⭐ Pick Rating: 4.5 Stars
Northwestern vs USC
The primetime FOX national game at 9:00 Eastern features No. 19 USC hosting Northwestern at the Coliseum. Both teams faced Nebraska recently, producing very different outcomes.
- USC defeated Nebraska on the road last week.
- Northwestern lost to the Cornhuskers by seven the week before.
That scheduling contrast favors USC, which has shown superior offensive consistency.
Simulation Edge
In a 10,000-game simulation, USC wins by an average of 19 points, suggesting value at the current line of –14 to –14.5. While Northwestern may have the stronger defense, the Trojans hold a massive advantage on offense, averaging nearly 9.5 yards per pass attempt and 40 points per game.
Northwestern runs effectively but struggles through the air, averaging just 6.3 yards per pass against opponents allowing 7.1. If they fall behind, their limited passing game makes a comeback unlikely.
Northwestern vs USC Prediction: USC -14.5
With USC projected to lead early and maintain control, the Trojans are well-positioned to cover this double-digit spread.
⭐ Pick Rating: 4 Stars
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