Kansas State vs Iowa State Prediction and Betting Preview | Farmageddon 2025
Saturday’s Kansas State vs Iowa State showdown in Ireland is a massive game to kick off the season because of how closely-contested the Big XII is expected to be this season. Our summer power ratings have nine teams positioned within a touchdown of each other at the top of the conference standings.
Kansas State vs Iowa State Preview
| Date and Time | August 23 at 12pm ET / 9am PT |
| Point Spread | Kansas State -3 |
| Total | 49.5 Points |
| Location | Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland |
| TV | ESPN |
| Forecast | Cloudy and Humid with a High of 70* |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 19. The Cyclones have dominated this series in recent years, going 4-1 straight-up and 5-0 against the spread in the last five meetings.
2024 Kansas State Stats
Strength of Schedule: No. 38 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential: -1 (No. 65 Nationally)
Plays per Game: 66.4 (No. 89)
Seconds per Play: 26.5 (No. 70)
Average Time of Possession: 29:10 (No. 91)
Kansas State on Offense
Yards per Game: 426.8 (No. 31)
Points per Game: 30.8 (No. 46)
Yards per Play: 6.57 (No. 13)
Offensive Success Rate: 43.5-percent (No. 44)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards): 71 (No. 23)
Net EPA per Play: +0.16 (No. 18)
Kansas State on Defense
Yards per Game Allowed: 343.4 (No. 43)
Points per Game Allowed: 23.4 (No. 49)
Yards per Play Allowed: 5.26 (No. 43)
Defensive Success Rate: 36.9-percent (No. 17)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards): 42
2024 Iowa State Stats
Strength of Schedule: No. 34 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential: +9 (No. 22)
Plays per Game: 73.5 (No. 16)
Seconds per Play: 26.7 (No. 72)
Average Time of Possession: 31:59 (No. 18)
Iowa State on Offense
Yards per Game: 416.2 (No. 39)
Points per Game: 31.1 (No. 41)
Yards per Play: 5.89 (No. 63)
Offensive Success Rate: 40.4-percent (No. 93)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards): 73 (No. 18)
Net EPA per Play: +0.07 (No. 51)
Iowa State on Defense
Yards per Game Allowed: 353.9 (No. 51)
Points per Game Allowed: 22.9 (No. 40)
Yards per Play Allowed: 5.73 (No. 79)
Defensive Success Rate: 40.1-percent (No. 59)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards): 57 (No. 73)
Kansas State vs Iowa State Prediction
Even though Iowa State has enjoyed recent success in this matchup (4-1 straight-up; 5-0 ATS last five years), we are interested in laying the points with Kansas State.
Per Jeff Sagarin, these teams played near-identical schedules last year (Iowa State No. 34; K-State No. 38), but the Wildcats were better in nearly every metric aside from the record column. K-State out-gained its opponents by 83.4 yards per game. The Wildcats held a +1.31 yards per play differential over their opponents while Iowa State only had a +0.16 edge. K-State had a better offensive and defensive success rate than Iowa State.
Per ESPN’s Bill Connelly, the Wildcats have a higher returning production number and K-State attracted a better class of recruits and transfers.
Iowa State was the beneficiary of a +9 turnover differential last season while K-State was -1. As long as that turnover demon doesn’t appear, we feel comfortable laying the small number with the ‘Cats in Ireland. KANSAS STATE -3
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