Thursday College Football Week 11 Predictions: Georgia Southern vs App State & UTSA vs South Florida

College football takes center stage on Thursday night with two nationally televised games in Week 11. While the NFL has its own primetime matchup, fans of the college gridiron will get double the action with a pair of Group of Five clashes from the American Athletic Conference and the Sun Belt.

Both games kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET — UTSA vs South Florida on ESPN, and Georgia Southern vs Appalachian State on ESPN2, and this breakdown from WagerTalk gives bettors insight into where the real value may lie.

UTSA Roadrunners vs South Florida Bulls

Kickoff: 7:30PM ET on ESPN

The feature game of the night belongs to the South Florida Bulls, who are looking to bounce back after a tough 34–31 loss to Memphis.

Despite the setback, South Florida remains one of the most talented teams in the Group of Five ranks, with earlier signature wins including a 34–7 upset over Boise State and a dramatic win over Florida as an 18-point underdog early in the season.

After climbing into the national rankings earlier this fall, the Bulls can’t afford another slip-up if they hope to remain in the postseason conversation. They enter this matchup favored by around 13.5 points, though some sportsbooks list the line between 12 and 14.

According to analysis, the key number of 14 could play a small role — landing exactly on that margin occurs only about 3–4% of the time. He prefers South Florida at -13.5 or better, noting that the Bulls have been the more balanced team on both sides of the ball.

UTSA vs South Florida Predictions

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️ – South Florida -13.5 or less (side)
⭐️⭐️⭐️ – Team total Over 41.5 for South Florida
⭐️⭐️ – Game total Over 67 (lean only)

Statistically, South Florida’s defense has allowed just 5.1 yards per play, compared to UTSA’s 6.1. That efficiency, combined with their ability to score both through the air and on the ground, supports a potential double-digit victory.

The Over/Under total sits between 67 and 67.5, slightly lower than its opening mark of 68.5. While it’s a lofty number, Merrill leans toward the Over — pointing out that South Florida’s defense has given up points to teams capable of moving the ball, including 49 to Miami, 36 to North Texas, and 34 to Memphis.

UTSA could find success on the ground, averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry, but their passing attack has been inconsistent. That combination points to an up-tempo, high-scoring contest.

Georgia Southern Eagles vs Appalachian State Mountaineers

Kickoff: 7:30PM ET on ESPN2

The second Thursday matchup shifts to the Sun Belt Conference, where two former FCS powerhouses — Georgia Southern and Appalachian State — square off in Boone, North Carolina.

Both programs were once national championship contenders at the 1-AA level, but this season has been far less glamorous. Each sits at 1–3 in conference play, looking to salvage momentum down the stretch.

Appalachian State opened as a 6-point favorite, though several sportsbooks have dropped to 5.5 or even 5.

This number is significant with six becoming a more common key number in both college and NFL football due to two-point conversion trends.

When comparing the two teams statistically, Georgia Southern holds a slight offensive edge, averaging 5.5 yards per play against opponents that allow the same.

App State sits at 5.6 yards per play against weaker defenses that surrender 5.9 on average. However, the Mountaineers have the defensive edge — and that could be the difference.

Georgia Southern vs App State Predictions

⭐️⭐️⭐️ – Georgia Southern +6 (value on the key number)
⭐️⭐️ – Over 61.5 (slight lean)

Georgia Southern’s defense ranks among the bottom six nationally, allowing nearly six yards per carry and 35 points per game. They’ve been unable to slow down opponents all season, and Merrill ranks their overall defense around 131st out of 136 FBS programs.

Still, App State hasn’t been dominant offensively, averaging just 4.1 yards per rush against teams allowing 4.7. They’ve been below average on the ground in five of their last six games, which limits their ability to exploit Georgia Southern’s weak front.

The total sits at 61.5, and Merrill notes there’s “teeny bit of value” on the Over. Georgia Southern’s games have averaged about 10 points higher than their opponents’ norms, while App State games have hovered right around expectation. That math suggests the true total should be closer to 64.

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