Wednesday College Football Week 10 Predictions: Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee & FIU vs Missouri State
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee – UNDER the Spotlight
Kickoff: 7:30PM ET on ESPN2
The first game of the night kicks off at 7:30 PM ET on ESPN2, as Jacksonville State visits Middle Tennessee. While both teams have had inconsistent seasons, this matchup comes down to contrasting styles and strengths—especially when it comes to the ground game versus the air attack.
Middle Tennessee: A Struggling Rebound
Middle Tennessee enters the contest at 1–6 straight up, yet they’ve quietly started to reward bettors, covering three of their last five games, including back-to-back covers.
Notably, the Blue Raiders have shown signs of life in conference play, particularly with a newly found rushing attack.
After failing to crack 75 rushing yards in three of their first four games, they’ve averaged over 100 rushing yards per game across their last three.
But while the rushing numbers have improved, Middle Tennessee’s passing game remains an issue, which is significant considering Jacksonville State’s primary defensive weakness is against the pass, giving up over 8.0 yards per attempt. This leaves Middle Tennessee ill-equipped to exploit that vulnerability.
Jacksonville State: Ground Game Powerhouse
Jacksonville State, averaging 31 points per game, leans heavily on its dominant rushing attack. With an offense that runs the ball nearly two-thirds of the time, the Gamecocks have racked up 277 rushing yards per game, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.
However, they struggle in the passing game, managing just 5.9 yards per pass, far below the average against teams allowing 7.3.
Defensively, Jacksonville State has done well containing the run, giving up just 4.1 yards per carry. That could neutralize Middle Tennessee’s primary strength, turning this game into a grind.
Jacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee Predictions: Under 54.6
With both teams inefficient through the air and relying on the run, this matchup sets up as a clock-draining affair.
The total of 54.5 may be too high for a game where explosive plays are unlikely and possessions will be extended by ground-heavy playbooks.
The recommended look here is the full game UNDER 54.5, with possible interest in team total unders—especially Middle Tennessee, who averages just 18.5 points per game on the season.
Florida International vs Missouri State – Running Into Value
Kickoff: 8:00PM ET on CBS Sports Network
The second nationally televised game kicks off at 8:00 PM ET on CBS Sports Network, featuring Florida International (FIU) on the road against Missouri State.
While both teams enter under the radar, this matchup offers compelling angles in both the side and total markets.
FIU: Offensive Surge Despite Recent Loss
Florida International is coming off a 45–26 loss to Kennesaw State, but the score hides an important detail—FIU’s offense is coming alive.
Despite the defeat, FIU racked up 518 total yards, including 222 on the ground and nearly 300 through the air.
In fact, over the past two weeks, FIU has logged more than 500 rushing yards combined, and has surpassed 220+ rushing yards in four of seven games this season.
Missouri State: Questionable Rush Defense
On the defensive side, Missouri State has posted strong performances against weaker rushing teams—holding Tennessee Martin and Middle Tennessee to under 100 yards.
But overall, the Bears are allowing 5.1 yards per carry, while their opponents average just 4.0—making them about a yard per carry worse than average.
Given that FIU is now averaging over 5.0 yards per carry and nearly 200 rushing yards per game, the ground game edge seems to lie with the Panthers.
Florida International vs Missouri State Predictions: Over 51 / FIU +4 / FIU Total OVER 23.5
With Missouri State more effective through the air and FIU better on the ground, this sets up as a strength vs. weaknessmatchup on both sides of the ball.
The total is set around 50.5 to 51.5, and both offenses are capable of exploiting defensive vulnerabilities. Sharper markets are already nudging the total up to 51 or even 51.5, suggesting over momentum.
As for the side, FIU could be a value play as a road underdog at +4, particularly given their strong rushing advantage. If you’re hesitant on the spread, a solid alternative is the FIU team total OVER 23.5, which removes volatility tied to the Missouri State home crowd or other game flow variables.
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