Wednesday College Football Week 11 Predictions: Kent State vs Ball State & Northern Illinois vs Toledo

The midweek MACtion slate continues this Wednesday with two intriguing conference showdowns: Kent State vs Ball State and Northern Illinois vs Toledo. Both matchups feature long-running series histories, balanced competition, and defensive storylines that could shape the outcomes.

Both games feature teams looking to establish momentum, and this breakdown from WagerTalk gives bettors insight into where the real value may lie.

Kent State vs Ball State | Wednesday MAC Showdown

Kickoff: 7:00PM ET on ESPNU

Ball State has controlled the recent rivalry, winning five of the last six meetings against Kent State. However, the Golden Flashes managed to stay within the number last year as a three-point home underdog.

Despite outgaining Ball State by 55 total yards, Kent State couldn’t overcome the turnover battle. Ball State built a multi-score lead for most of the game, only for Kent State to slide through the back door with a 57-yard touchdown pass in the final 30 seconds.

Both teams enter this week’s matchup on equal rest, adding another layer of familiarity and focus to the preparation.

Kent State vs Ball State: Offensive and Defensive Matchups

Kent State’s offense has shown noticeable improvement with quarterback Dru DeShields leading the way. His presence has sparked efficiency in the passing attack and helped the Flashes find rhythm after early-season inconsistency.

However, Kent State’s rush defense remains a concern heading into this matchup. Ball State is one of the nation’s most run-heavy teams, running the ball on 59% of its plays, a mark that ranks inside the top 20 nationally.

The recent data reinforces that ground dominance:

• Bowling Green gashed Kent State for over 200 rushing yards two weeks ago.
• Ball State’s ground game has been most effective when facing softer defenses, highlighted by a 42-point performance and 216 rushing yards in their win over Akron.

That efficiency stands out even more considering Ball State’s conference schedule — they’ve already played Ohio, Western Michigan, and Northern Illinois, three of the stronger defensive units in the MAC. Against lesser resistance, the Cardinals have consistently found success on the ground.

Kent State vs Ball State Prediction: Ball State -2.5

While Kent State’s offense continues to improve, the combination of Ball State’s established rushing identity and Kent State’s defensive vulnerabilities on the ground define the matchup dynamic heading into Wednesday night.

Northern Illinois vs Toledo | Defensive Battle in the MAC

Kickoff: 7:00PM ET on ESPN2

Toledo has taken control of this series, winning each of the last three meetings, including a 13–6 defensive battle last season.

That game was particularly unusual — Northern Illinois generated 391 total yards and 25 first downs but never found the end zone.

The Huskies struggled mightily in scoring situations, going 4-of-19 on third down and 2-of-8 on fourth down. Despite those offensive inefficiencies, both teams come into this year’s meeting with equal rest.

Northern Illinois vs Toledo Team Trends & Statistical Profile

Northern Illinois recently snapped a six-game losing streak with a 21–7 home win over Ball State, offering some positive momentum.

The under has been a consistent trend in Huskies games this season, going 6–2 overall. Their slow tempo and lack of explosive plays have made low-scoring outcomes a common occurrence.

• NIU ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in pace, meaning they drain the clock and limit possessions.
• The Huskies are also last in the country in generating explosive plays (10+ yards).

Toledo counters with one of the most efficient defenses in the nation.

• The Rockets rank No. 1 nationally in fewest explosive plays allowed.
• Toledo’s defense has surrendered just 16.0 points per game this season, consistently frustrating opponents with disciplined coverage and gap control.

However, it’s worth noting that Toledo has already lost two games as a double-digit favorite this year, suggesting that Northern Illinois could keep things competitive for stretches of play.

Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction: Under 42.5

With both teams preferring methodical drives and physical defense, the statistical trends align toward a slower, lower-scoring style of game.

Toledo’s strength in preventing big plays and Northern Illinois’ offensive limitations create a tactical matchup that will likely hinge on turnovers and red-zone execution.

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