Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Prediction and Betting Preview | NCAAF Week 0
Liberty is the clear favorite in Conference USA entering the 2025 season, but Saturday’s Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston contest could go a long way toward determining who can challenge the Flames at the top of the league standings.
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Preview
| Date and Time | August 23 at 7pm ET / 4pm PT |
| Point Spread | Western Kentucky -10.5 |
| Total | 61.5 Points |
| Location | L.T. Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Kentucky |
| TV | CBS Sports Network |
| Forecast | Clear with Temps in the Upper-60s |
Odds above courtesy of DraftKings as of August 20. Western Kentucky has won each of the prior two meetings since Sam Houston joined the FBS ranks, including a 31-14 road win in Texas last year.
2024 Sam Houston State Stats
Strength of Schedule: No. 123 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential: +12 (No. 8 Nationally)
Plays per Game: 69.8 (No. 56)
Seconds per Play: 27.5 (No. 100)
Average Time of Possession: 32:12 (No. 13)
Sam Houston State on Offense
Yards per Game: 347.9 (No. 102)
Points per Game: 23.8 (No. 98)
Yards per Play: 4.99 (No. 119)
Offensive Success Rate: 37.4-percent (No. 118)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards): 40 (No. 123)
Net EPA per Play: +0.01 (No. 73)
Sam Houston State on Defense
Yards per Game Allowed: 321.5 (No. 22)
Points per Game Allowed: 20.5 (No. 21)
Yards per Play Allowed: 4.78 (No. 13)
Defensive Success Rate: 41.2-percent (No. 74)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards): 29 (No. 1)
2024 Western Kentucky Stats
Strength of Schedule: No. 116 (courtesy of Jeff Sagarin)
Turnover Differential: -3 (No. 91)
Plays per Game: 63.8 (No. 117)
Seconds per Play: 26.4 (No. 63)
Average Time of Possession: 27:50 (No. 116)
Western Kentucky on Offense
Yards per Game: 373.5 (No. 82)
Points per Game: 24.9 (No. 92)
Yards per Play: 5.75 (No. 71)
Offensive Success Rate: 42.5-percent (No. 63)
Explosive Plays (20+ Yards): 65 (No. 38)
Net EPA per Play: -0.04 (No. 87)
Western Kentucky on Defense
Yards per Game Allowed: 397.3 (No. 97)
Points per Game Allowed: 24.6 (No. 62)
Yards per Play Allowed: 5.92 (No. 90)
Defensive Success Rate: 43.6-percent (No. 105)
Explosive Plays Allowed (20+ Yards): 57 (No. 73)
Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston Prediction
This is going to be a transition year for the Bearkats as they play their home games off-campus for stadium reconstruction and welcome in a new coaching staff. If this was later in the season and we had a little bit of data and film to work with, the over in this contest would likely have been a high-rated release.
Former Sam Houston head coach K.C. Keeler (now at Temple) installed a disciplined approach to the Bearkats’ defense, who finished last season top-25 in the country in yards per game allowed, points per game allowed, yards per play allowed and explosive plays allowed (No. 1 nationally). Those days are over.
New head coach Phil Longo wants to throw the ball and play at a brisk pace, which is a steep departure from the previous regime. We would like to see a game or two under the Bearkats’ belt before fully buying into the new system, but we certainly would not be surprised if this game ended with 70+ points. OVER 62 POINTS
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WagerTalk’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the moneylines, point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the college football Week 0 games, including this Western Kentucky vs Sam Houston contest. Find free college football picks from season win total bets through National Championship futures on our free picks pages.
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