Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction and Betting Preview | July 8
Tuesday’s Padres vs Diamondbacks showdown in San Diego features a rematch of a starting pitcher matchup that we just saw three weeks ago. Ten runs were scored when Merrill Kelly and Nick Pivetta took the field in Arizona, and the GoldSheet team is expecting a similar high-scoring affair in this one.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Betting Preview
| Time | 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
| Stadium | Petco Park in San Diego |
| Weather | Clear with a Light Breeze Blowing in from Left Field |
| MoneyLine | San Diego -130 / Arizona +115 |
| Total | 8 Runs (o EV / u -120) |
| RunLine | San Diego -1.5 (+165) / Arizona +1.5 (-190) |
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks’ current roster is hitting .169 in 87 plate appearances against San Diego’s Nick Pivetta with a 21.8-percent strikeout rate and a .231 weighted on-base average.
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr. is 4-for-20.
- Eugenio Suarez is 3-for-14 with two home runs and two walks.
- Randal Grichuk is 3-for-10 with two doubles.
Merrill Kelly has struggled with hard contact this season. He enters Tuesday in the bottom-15th percentile among pitchers in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate. He’s given up a home run in each of his last four starts, including one to Jake Cronenworth in their first meeting last month.
Kelly’s hard-hit rate has jumped from 40.9-percent last year to 46.5-percent this year. His 90.8 mph average exit velocity is the hardest of his career. His expected weighted on-base average (.322) is nearly 40 points higher than his actual weighted on-base average (.285).
San Diego Padres
The Padres’ current lineup is hitting .238 in 186 plate appearances against Arizona’s Merrill Kelly with a 19.9-percent strikeout rate and a .319 weighted on-base average.
- Luis Arraez is 4-for-11 with three doubles and a triple.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. is 10-for-28 with a double and four home runs.
- Jake Cronenworth is 5-for-26 with a double and two home runs.
The Padres have used at least four relief pitchers in each of their last four games. San Diego went with a bullpen game on Sunday against the Rangers (six relievers), then Yu Darvish made his season debut on Monday with a limited pitch count. Yuki Matsui, Bryan Hoeing, Wandy Peralta and Eduarniel Núñez each provided four outs in relief on Monday and all four threw at least 20 pitches out of the bullpen.
San Diego needs a strong outing from Nick Pivetta, who has pitched very well this season, but will be facing a tough task in this one. This is a replay of a pitching matchup that we just saw in Arizona three weeks ago. Short turn-around situations like this usually benefit the hitter in the rematch because of the familiarity element.
We saw ten runs in that game between Pivetta and Merrill Kelly last month and we’re expecting a similar high-scoring affair on Tuesday. The Padres generated four runs on seven hits in 5.0 innings against Kelly. Fernando Tatis Jr. has some excellent numbers against Kelly, and he was fantastic in that first meeting going 4-for-5 with three runs scored.
Padres vs Diamondbacks Prediction
The over is 48-37-6 in Arizona’s games this season, including 17-8-1 over the last 30 days.
OVER 8 RUNS (EV)
Daily MLB Stat Sheet
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