UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs Yan Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds December 6

UFC 323 Picks, Predictions and Odds

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 323 picks and predictions for December 6 with the main event headlined by Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan in a bantamweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan: UFC 323 Main Event

Saturday, December 6	UFC 323 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Merab Dvalishvili -500 vs Petr Yan +340
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -410 / Under +280)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	PPV

UFC 323 Predictions: Undercard

Mairon Santos -210 vs Muhammad Naimov +162

I always think Naimov is underrated, and I think he is here as well. Naimov can wrestle, clinch, and eat up long stretches of control time on the ground.

Santos prefers to strike, but he’s very low volume and barely got by Yusuff last fight — and Yusuff has now lost three straight and looked terrible.

The play is the underdog as Santos doesn’t push pace, doesn’t create big moments, and Naimov should be better with the wrestling.

Iwo Barnaniewski -178 vs Ibo Aslan +138

Iwo hits like a truck and has never been out of the first round, so don’t blink. He knocked out Aly on Contender Series in 20 seconds as an underdog — true one-shot KO power.

Aslan has lost two straight and looked awful last fight, showing no aggression, no volume, and no urgency. He can’t fight like that here. Iwo will catch him and knock him out. Iwo by KO is the pick.

Jalin Turner -265 vs Edson Barboza +200

No clue what to make of Turner right now. He has lost four of five and was so frustrated after his last loss that he retired in March.

He looks lethargic and unfocused at times despite having elite physical tools. Barboza is 39 years old with a ton of mileage and looked completely washed against Drakkar Klose — old, slow, and flat.

Betting against aging fighters who look like they’ve hit a wall has been money recently. Turner is the pick, but it’s a scary fight to trust financially.

Brunno Ferreira -104 vs Marvin Vettori -120

Betting against Vettori has been a cash cow — he’s lost three in a row and looks old and slow. His head movement is gone, his power is gone, and he’s easy to hit.

Brunno Ferreira isn’t elite, but he’s won four of five, has real KO power, and has shown submission ability with back-to back armbar wins. This is a fade of Vettori at this stage. He’s well past his prime.

Chris Duncan -194 vs Terrance McKinney +150

Duncan keeps performing well in the UFC with a 5–1 record and has shown durability, cardio, and finishing ability.

McKinney must finish early — every UFC win he has is a first-round finish, and he gasses out badly if it goes past that.

Duncan is tough enough to weather the early storm and then finish McKinney late in round one or early in round two.

Grant Dawson -235 vs Manuel Torres +180

Torres has big KO power and leaves his chin exposed, which won’t matter much because Grant Dawson is an elite wrestler and won’t let this fight stay standing for long.

His only loss was a quick KO in 30 seconds — he won’t give Torres that chance. Once it hits the mat, Dawson gets the body triangle, controls, and either submits or wins rounds easily. Dawson has been a cash cow, and this is another strong matchup for him.

Fares Ziam -160 vs Nazim Sadykhov +124

Ziam has really improved — cleaner striking, a developing ground game, and more confidence. But this is a war on the feet waiting to happen. Sadykhov is a vicious striker with big volume and

big power. He can win with one-shot KO power or by overwhelming opponents with combinations. I think he’ll be too much for Ziam over three rounds. I’ll take the underdog.

Mansur Absul Malik -950 vs Antonio Trocoli +500

Trocoli stinks — finished in both UFC fights, and extremely limited everywhere. This is a gift matchup for Malik.

He beat Brundage and then had it overturned due to a weird back-of-the-head strike, but Malik is a big-time striker and finisher. He’ll knock out Trocoli quickly.

Maycee Barber -172 vs Karine Silva +134

Tons of question marks around Barber. She’s reportedly had seizures and has pulled out of her last two fights. When healthy, she’s a strong striker, good in the clinch, and a legit fighter. Silva hasn’t looked great lately, going 1–1 with mediocre performances.

Silva’s best path is on the ground, but her wrestling isn’t great. Barber likely has more power, but with her health unknown, this is a pass fight for betting.

Tatsuro Taira -122 vs Brandon Moreno -104

Great fight and extremely close. Taira has an excellent ground game and improving striking. Moreno is a great striker with elite defense, and his losses only come to the best in the division.

Taira will struggle in a pure striking match, so he needs takedowns and top control to win. Fight to go the distance is the best play. As for a side, it’s too close to pick confidently.

Jan Blachowicz -120 vs Bogdon Guskov -106

Jan is older now, low volume, still has good leg kicks, but his wrestling has fallen off. Guskov hits hard and is faster on the feet, and Jan is past his prime. Guskov is the pick.

Payton Talbott -265 vs Henry Cejudo +200

Cejudo didn’t wrestle in his last fight, which was shocking — he just swung wildly, and that won’t work against Talbott, who has a big reach and height advantage.

Talbott looked bad two fights ago and his defensive wrestling is questionable, but can 38-year-old Cejudo dominate with wrestling over multiple rounds anymore? I’m leaning no. Talbott outworks him and wins a decision.

Alexandre Pantoja -245 vs Josh Van +186

Van’s rise has been incredible — five straight wins over legit opponents. Striking is sharp, and his takedown defense has looked great.

But Pantoja is the best grappler in the division and still has gas left even at 35. UFC has no one else for him — he’s beating everyone. Pantoja should get takedowns, control Van, maybe submit him, and avoid extended striking exchanges. Pantoja for the win.

UFC 323 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili -500 vs Petr Yan +340

It’s Merab or nothing until he finally shows signs of slowing down. His nonstop pressure, cardio, pace, and relentless takedowns have broken everyone — and Yan isn’t the one to solve him.

Yan needs space and rhythm to land clean shots, and Merab gives opponents none of that. Expect constant movement, endless takedown attempts, and Yan stuck defending instead of attacking. Merab wins in dominant fashion.

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