UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs Hooker Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds November 22, 2025

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for November 22, 2025 with the main event headlined by Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 1:00pm ET from ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar.

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Arman Tsarukyan vs Dan Hooker: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, November 22	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Arman Tsarukyan -650 vs Dan Hooker +425
Rounds:	3.5 (Over +105 / Under -130)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT
Arena:	ABHA Arena in Doha, Qatar
TV:	ESPN+

Undercard UFC Fight Night Predictions

Saygid Izagakhmaev -390 vs Nicolas Dalby +280 

Saygid has aggressive striking and a solid ground game, and this is a clear spot where UFC is giving the local fighter a favorable matchup.

Dalby is now 41 years old, his durability and cardio are fading, and he has lost two straight. Dalby’s volume has also dropped, making him far easier  to overwhelm.

Saygid should push the pace, force Dalby backward, and eventually break him once the gas tank empties. The pick is Saygid, likely by finish.

Nurullo Aliev -340 vs Shem Rock +250 

Aliev is relentless with his takedowns and top pressure, and Rock doesn’t have the striking to keep Aliev from shooting repeatedly.

Rock can clinch and scramble, but he doesn’t have the tools to stop sustained wrestling from someone this physical. Aliev dominated Joe Solecki last  fight, and that’s a far better wrestler than Rock.

Unless Rock lands something unexpected early, he will be stuck defending takedowns all night. Aliev by dominant decision or late finish.

Ismail Naurdiev -186 vs Ryan Loder +144 

Loder is a wrestler, but he got dominated and knocked out on the feet in his last fight. Naurdiev doesn’t have huge power, but he’s technical enough to give Loder trouble standing.

The concern is Naurdiev’s last fight — he badly poked “The Iron Turtle” in the eye, then got physically  bullied afterward by an injured opponent. With Loder’s wrestling and plus-money price, this feels like a live-dog situation. Loder is the pick.

Aleksandre Topuria -128 vs Bekzat Almakhan +100 

Almakhan came into the UFC and pushed Umar Nurmagomedov to a competitive decision — an  extremely strong look — then knocked out the very durable Brad Katona. Topuria looked decent in his debut, but Almakhan seems to have the higher ceiling.

His takedowns are cleaner, his striking is improving fast, and I don’t see where Topuria clearly outperforms him. Very close fight, but Almakhan by decision is the pick.

Tagir Ulanbekov -188 vs Kyoji Horiguchi +146 

Horiguchi has been beating lower-level competition, but his takedowns won’t come as easily against Ulanbekov.

Striking is probably close to even, but Ulanbekov has the better minute winning tools with control, clinch work, and round-stealing takedowns.

Horiguchi’s style works well outside the UFC, but this is a big step up in physicality. Ulanbekov by decision.

AbdulRakhman Yahkyaev -1000 vs Raffael Cerqueira +600 

There’s not much analysis needed — Cerqueira is very limited and has lost all three UFC fights  decisively.

His striking is weak, he offers nothing dangerous on the ground, and he’s likely to be cut after this. Yahkyaev should dominate quickly. Yahkyaev by finish.

Luke Riley -260 vs Bogdan Grad +200 

Riley has big power but little ground game, and he’s benefitted from beating opponents not UFC caliber. Grad was competitive last fight and only lost because he got taken down late — something he won’t need to worry about here.

Grad moves well, has good volume, and should be  able to stay safe and win minutes. I’ll take Grad to avoid big shots and win a decision.

Asu Almabayev -210 vs Alex Perez +162 

Almabayev has elite grappling pressure and only one UFC loss — to Manel Kape, a top-tier striker. Perez has just one win in the last five years, and it came against a checked-out Matheus Nicolau.

Perez also suffered a major knee injury in 2023 and hasn’t looked like his old self since. Almabayev’s pace, wrestling, and consistency should overwhelm Perez. Almabayev is the easy pick.

Shamil Gaziev -192 vs Serghei Spivac +148 

Terrible matchup for Spivac — his game relies on takedowns and top control, but Gaziev is big, strong, and wrestle-heavy enough to neutralize that.

Gaziev should win the striking exchanges comfortably, as Spivac can look lost on the feet. Unless Spivac gets a miracle takedown early, this looks one-sided. Gaziev is the pick.

Myktybek Orolbai -215 vs Jack Hermansson +164 

Orolbai is sharp everywhere — strong wrestling, clean striking, and youth on his side. Hermansson is now 37, coming off a KO loss, and his offense looks slower and less dangerous. 

His striking isn’t dynamic anymore and he’s no longer a major threat on the ground. Orolbai  should look more athletic and fluid and win most exchanges. Orolbai is the pick.

Volkan Oezdemir -250 v Alonzo Menifield +190 

Best bet here is fight to go the distance — both men are durable and low volume. Oezdemir is cleaner technically on the feet, while Menifield is the stronger wrestler.

If you’re playing a side,  it’s dog or pass, and Menifield can drag this into long clinch exchanges and slow things down. Very close fight, but leaning toward the decision prop.

Ian Garry -215 vs Belal Muhammad +164 

Love Garry in this matchup. His length and range management will be a real problem for Belal, who struggled with the wrestling game of Jack Della Maddalena last fight.

Belal’s striking is predictable and not dangerous enough to win rounds from the outside. Garry’s defensive wrestling is excellent, and his fight IQ is elite. Garry by decision.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Arman Tsarukyan -650 vs Dan Hooker +425

Tsarukyan should have clear advantages everywhere — wrestling, speed, and shot selection. Hooker is always tough and durable, but over five rounds Armen’s pace and pressure will break him down.

Hooker’s willingness to brawl leaves lots of openings for Tsarukyan’s strikes and takedowns. Once Armen chains takedowns together, Hooker won’t have many answers. Tsarukyan wins, with a possible late finish.

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