NFL Week 4 AFC Betting Preview

Are the Chiefs destined for another Super Bowl run, or will someone emerge from the AFC to challenge Kansas City in January? Betting analyst Ron Marmalefsky shares his thoughts on the outlook in the AFC after the first three weeks, highlighting each team’s strengths and weaknesses thus far.

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AFC Betting Notes

As I did a year ago for Wager Talk, I’m back with occasional articles about the NFL and NCAA. These articles are intended to provide a glimpse into the process I use to prepare for not only the week ahead, but also to get ahead of the curve in determining a team’s fortunes as the season unfolds.

Today’s article is about the NFL, and covers my thoughts about all 16 AFC teams now that three weeks have been played. I continually look at my notes for each team all during the season, and evaluate whether a team is meeting, exceeding or underachieving thus far. While I look at numerous team and player metrics, this article will isolate two of my thoughts per team. Hopefully, this exercise can provide clues to what lies ahead for each team.

Team Recaps

BALTIMORE: All three outcomes have been close, but the Ravens continue to squander leads under John Harbaugh.

• Is the run defense back in form? They’ve allowed 53-150, a year after having their worst outcome in two plus decades.
• Their 10-3 sack ratio was achieved against teams that I would have expected to hold them back. That’s good news.

BUFFALO: Buffalo is currently tied with KC with my highest Power Number. Only the run defense has been suspect.

• Their 11-2 sack ratio looks like it will be at or near the top in sack differential all season long.
• RB Cook has emerged as more than just an efficient runner (4.6 per carry). He is a threat as a receiver as well.

CINCINNATI: The Bengals are a mess in the secondary ever since they parted ways with Jessie Bates. Tee Higgins looked like a WR who needed to work through things in the preseason. The timing with Joe Burrow was not there.

• TE’s and RB’s are being targeted more than usual by Joe Burrow. This has limited his yards-per-completion figure.
• Cincy is 0-3, losing all their games by six or fewer points.

CLEVELAND: Without RB Chubb, Cleveland does not yet trust its run game. Still, the pass defense remains a strength.

• The OL (or more specifically, QB Watson) has allowed 16 sacks. Teams aren’t afraid of using a power pass rush.
• As for Watson, he no longer throws with anticipation. He’s completed 67 passes for 551 yards, a really bad sign.

DENVER: With no TD passes, Denver’s offense has stalled. Where’s the creativity a Sean Payton offense usually displays?

• Bo Nix is by far their leading rusher as surprisingly the top RB’s have combined to go 42-92, or just 2.2 yards-per-carry.
• Instead of improvement, there has been regression in run and pass D numbers. The year two DC may not last long.

HOUSTON: It doesn’t look like it, but QB Stroud and the Houston run game have solid numbers so far in 2024.

• Issues remain with the OL in pass protection. This needs to be addressed.
• On paper, the 67.6% pass D from 2023 has improved (49-84). In reality, the three QB’s they have faced show an expectation of 60.5% according to my numbers, which is below starting QB market value. Look for the pass defense to regress once they face better QB’s, which likely translates into higher scoring games.

INDY: Indy has scored 58 points in three games. As I explain below, their true number is closer to 81. Keep that in mind when thinking that the offense may have regressed.

• Indy’s time of possession: 64:48. Their opponents time of possession: 115:12. That’s unheard of. If both teams had held the ball the same amount of time, points per minute would yield a three-game total of 81-48. Keep that in mind.
• While QB Richardson is not even 50% (36-73), blame continues to go to the passive defensive scheme. Indy is currently allowing 70% through the air, and 4.45-179 yards-per-came on the ground.

JACKSONVILLE: Jacksonville has a roster problem thanks to bottom tier GM Trent Baalke. This only gets better if QB Lawrence regains his form. Thus far, he has not met my 2024 expectations.

• The pieces are there for offensive improvement, as the run game and WR’s are fine. The OL will improve when facing softer pass rushers. Look for point totals to rise when that situation exists.
• I projected Jacksonville to reach 40 defensive sacks. They have just five, which is one reason the defense has been soft.

KANSAS CITY: KC is dangerously close to being 0-3, but don’t let that foll you. The team will improve once the secondary gets more seasoning, and once the OL finds its rhythm.

• As expected, the KC run defense remains soft. Teams would be smart to wear down their defense with power runs.
• TE Kelce is off to a slow start. It’s a marathon, not a sprint, so look for a spike up after their 10/13 bye week.

LAS VEGAS: Vegas has been outplayed in each of their three games. The defense has vastly underachieved.

• I’m not YET concerned about their 5.4 per carry run D. They played the Chargers and Ravens. The #’s are misleading.
• More concerning is the NFL’s worst rush attack. That puts too much pressure on their QB’s to throw on passing downs.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS: LA Charger games are taking far less than three hours thanks to their power football approach. This is the Harbaugh way, but a massive number of injuries might force the team into a style of play that will stunt their growth.

• As I expected (see season preview), game total UNDERS were the way to go early in the season (3-0 to the under).
• The pass defense has been surprisingly subpar. It was ‘expected” that a Jim Harbaugh coached defense would stiffen vs. the run (275 yards allowed), but they’ve allowed nearly 75% through the air to QB’s expected to hit 61%.

MIAMI: The wheels have fallen off this once high-powered offense. With minimal roster depth, this season could go south.

• After recording 56 sacks a year ago, Miami has but 6. That area “could” improve if they can get healthy.
• RB and pass catching threat Achane is averaging just 3.5 per carry. With backups at QB, the run game has to get better.

NEW ENGLAND: With a depleted roster, NE is doing the right thing by running the ball to try and shorten games.

• I projected 50 sacks allowed this year. That seems accurate despite throwing 77 total passes (11 allowed in 3 games).
• No WR on this team is feared. Teams will be able to play single coverage, which could eventually impact the run game.

NEW YORK JETS: Press the reset button? The ten-day break should enable this team to thrive defensively despite DL injuries.

• The Jets have underrated run-pass balance. As long as the OL holds up (5 sacks allowed), this is a good omen.
• WR Lazard would be almost out of football without Aaron Rodgers. Their chemistry remains underrated.

PITTSBURGH: Any team with T.J. Watt on it is lethal, but an injury to pass rusher Highsmith could be an under the radar issue.

• I still feel that the offense (under Arthur Smith) is more vanilla than it needs to be. RB and dual threat Patterson should be incorporated even more into the offense, as does WR Austin.
• After years of mediocrity, the run defense may be back to its old, impressive self. They’ve overachieved based on opponents faced, which is a very good sign.

TENNESSEE: Teams such as Tennessee must relearn how to win. They have too many self-inflicted wounds to be fully trusted. To be honest, nothing on the three-game stat sheet is surprising.

• I expected the Titans to be in the 30th – 32nd range in defensive sacks allowed. They’ve allowed 15 sacks thus far.
• Under former coach Vrabel, the run defense was top two. I expected regression, especially with the new, press-man cover scheme, which can work once the talent gets upgraded. Tennessee is now much softer vs. the run.

Follow me on twitter @ronacesports to be alerted of future articles, and my weekly podcasts with Las Vegas Cris, Ted Sobel, and Jeff Dawson.

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