Canadiens vs Penguins - NHL Qualifying Round Preview & Prediction

The re-start of the NHL season is a month and a half away and it will start with the playoffs, as the rest of the regular season has been scrapped. We know the matchups for the qualifying round of the playoffs and I will be taking a look at each one of the next week to 10 days.

The NHL playoffs will have 24 teams in it with the 16 of those teams playing in eight best-of-five Qualifying round matchups. The Top four teams in each conference will then square off against each other in a round-robin style format to determine the seeding of those four teams. The four teams from the West that win their Qualifying Matchup will face the top four teams in that conference and the same for the East. The Western Conference playoffs will take play in one hub city and the Eastern Conference will do the same. The hub cities have not yet been announced.

Okay, let’s get to the first matchup, which is the Pittsburgh Penguins vs the Montreal Canadiens. The Penguins are favored at -190 to win this series while the Habs come in at +175.

A Look At The Montreal Canadiens

Regular Season Stats & Rankings: Montreal is 19th in scoring at 2.93 gpg, 2nd in shots per game at 34.1, and 22nd in powerplay conversions at 17.7%. On the defensive end of the ice, they finished at 19th in goals allowed at 3.10 gpg, 13th in shots allowed at 31.1 spg, and 19th in penalty kill at 78.7%.

If this was a regular playoff scenario, the Canadiens would not be in it as they are 12th in the Eastern Conference with 71 points. The Habs are hoping that the break will have done them some good as they were playing very badly before the pause started. Montreal will come into this series having lost three in a row and 10 of their last 14. The offense was a big issue over that stretch as the Habs averaged 1.8 gpg in their last 10 losses, compared to 4.3 gpg in their last four wins. Montreal will need their offense to be on point in this one as the penguins have a very good offense that averaged 3.20 gpg this year. The Habs scored just three goals in their two losses to the Penguins in the regular season, compared to four goals in their one win.

Carey Price is the number one goalie for the Habs and he went 27-31 with a 2.79 GAA on the year, including 15-12 with a 2.66 GAA away from home. In his career, Price has gone 25-31 with a 2.53 GAA in the playoffs and he is 13-19 with a 2.95 GAA against the Penguins. Backing up Price will be Charlie Lindgren, who went 2-4 with a 3.33 GAA this year. He has no playoff experience. Leading the team in points is Tomas Tatar with 61 while Phillip Danault is 2nd with 47 and Max Domi is 3rd with 44. Leading the team in goals has been Tatar and Brendan Gallagher, who each have 22 while Domi is 2nd with 17.

A Look At The Pittsburgh Penguins

Regular Season Stats & Rankings: Pittsburgh is 10th in scoring at 3.20 gpg, 12th in shots per game at 31.9, and 6th in powerplay conversions at 19.9%. On the defensive end of the ice, they finished at 12th in goals allowed at 2.84 gpg, 6th in shots allowed at 29.7 spg, and 10th in penalty kill at 82.1%.

The Pittsburgh Penguins finished 5th in the Eastern Conference with 86 points but they were not playing all that well right before the pandemic hit. Pittsburgh entered the break having lost eight of their last 11 games and just like the Habs, it was their offense that did them in over that stretch. The Penguins scored a total of 12 goals in their final eight losses, compared to hanging up 16 goals in their final three wins. The Penguins have been a very solid offensive team overall this year, despite the fact that Sidney Crosby has missed 28 games and Jake Guentzel has missed 30. Crosby went into the break healthy, while Guentzel has not played since December 30th. He is expected back for the playoffs. The offense should be far better with both Crosby and Guentzel on the ice at the same time.

In the crease for the Penguins, will be Matt Murray, who went 20-16 with a 2.87 GAA on the year, including 10-10 with a 2.98 GAA in his games away from home. Murray has been solid in the postseason in his career, going 28-19 with a 2.16 GAA in 48 games played but we do note that he was 0-4 with a 3.02 GAA in the postseason last year. He has gone 4-1 with a 2.19 GAA in his career against the Habs. Backing up Murray will be Tristan Jarry, who played in 33 games this year and went 20-13 with a 2.43 GAA in those games, including 7-7 with a 2.66 GAA away from home. Jarry has no playoff experience and he is 2-1 with a 2.34 GAA against the Habs in his career. Leading the team in points was Evgeni Malkin with 74 while Brian Rust had 56 and Crosby had 47. Rust led the team in goals with 27 while Malkin was 2nd with 25 and both Guentzel and Jason Zucker each had 20 to place 3rd.

Prediction

The Pittsburgh Penguins are a pretty solid favorite in this series and I will be going with them to win it and move on. Both teams struggled down the stretch before the break but the Pens are still the better overall team in this match. They have a better offense, especially with the return of Jake Guentzel and that should be the difference in this series. Carey Price has plenty of playoff experience but he has not had a ton of success while Matt Murray has and I will also look for Murray to bounce back from a horrid showing in last year’s postseason which saw him go 0-4. It all sets up perfectly for the Penguins to take this series in four games.