Free Picks For Belmont Park - 7/10/20

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight ($64,000)

This six-furlong turf race involves six 2-year-old male runners. Five of the horses are first-time starters. #5 Blame the Booze, a brother to 2020 Arkansas Derby winner Nadal, is under the direction of trainer Wesley Ward. Ward has a 31% win rate and 63% WPS percentage with first-time starters in 2020. #6 King of Miami is another runner making his debut and is also one of Ward’s horses. Ward will have Jose L. Ortiz in the saddle for the son of American Pharoah. Ward and Ortiz have won 20% of their races this year when working together. #3 Takecareyallchicken is the only member of the field to already have a race in hand. Takecareyallchicken was not a factor in his debut going five furlongs on June 19.

Picks: I like an exacta box of #6,#5, #3. I also like a show bet on the #6.

Race 6- Maiden Special Weight (Purse -$56,000)

10 New York State 3-year-old and upward fillies and mares will go six and one-half furlongs on the dirt. This race, which includes three-first time starters, should be very competitive though I believe that it will ultimately come down to #10 Jewel of Arabia and #7 Vivazano. Jewel of Arabia just narrowly missed, by a neck, her first victory the last time out -- going five-and-one-half furlongs here at Belmont. Jewel of Arabia has yet to finish worse than third in any of her three career outings. Jockey Manuel Franco, who has a 19% win rate and a 46% WPS percentage in 2020, gets the ride for trainer Christophe Clement this go around. Vivazano showed a lot in her debut and led most of the way but ultimately bested Jewel of Arabia and Eloquent Speaker. I expect Vivazano to have an improved effort in this one and to join Jewel of Arabia setting the pace. Like the battle for first place, I believe that the battle for the show will be just as close. #5 Steal My Heart, #1 Bella Domenica and #9 Voice of Spring should be among the horses that you consider to fill out the rest of your ticket.

Picks: I like a win bet on the #10. I also like an exacta box bet of #10, #7. In addition, I will take an trifecta box bet of #10, #7, #5, #1, #9.

Race 9 - Gold Fever Stakes (Purse -$80,000)

This six-furlong stakes race is for 3-year-old male horses and will have seven runners. This meet certainly looks like it will be a “dogfight” to the wire, just not for first place. #6 Long Weekend should handily win his third straight stakes race while also collecting win No. 5 in six career races. There really isn’t anything not to like about the 1-to-2 morning-line favorite, who has registered an ESpeed of at least 100 in three straight races. The only questions are how will he respond to a two-plus month layoff as well as handle the track as this will be his debut at Belmont. #5 Wondrwherecraigis will look to go 3-for-3 to start his career as he followed up his maiden victory in the special weight division with a half-length victory in a $52,332 allowance going five-and-one-half furlongs at Laurel Park. Jockey Jose Lezcano is having the best run at the stakes level in his career this year, registering a 15% win percentage along with a 55% WPS percentage. Not only is this the Kentucky gelding’s first foray into the stakes level as well as at Belmont. #4Listentoyourheart has been on the stakes circuit since breaking his maiden and has recorded a victory along with four top 3 finishes in those five meets. Listentoyourheart registered a career-best ESpeed of 97 while finishing second in the seven-furlong $100,000 Mike Lee Stakes at Belmont Park about a month ago. The New York colt is 2-1-1-0 at Belmont Park. #1 Premier Star gets the inside post and has shown considerable early speed in his previous four starts, which should put him in the first flight of horses out of the gate. Premier Star is coming off a fourth-place finish against $35,000 optional claimers in a six-furlong race at Laurel Park (June 19) following a four-month layoff.

Pick: With the #6 probably going to be an overwhelming favorite, I will go with a trifecta bet of the #6 keyed with the #5, #4, #1. I also will go with a show bet on the #4.