Free Picks For Gulfstream Park - 5/17/20

Race 4- Special Maiden Weight (Purse -$47,000)

This race will be one mile with seven filly runners going on the main track.. #4 Estillo Talentoso is the class of field a considerable amount. The freshman runner is getting the blinkers removed after just one start following a third-place finish during his first try at the mile against similar competition the last time out (May 3). The super-quick Kentucky horse has finished in the money in the top 3 in all three of her runs. Trainer Juan Arriagada has decided to give Samy Camacho, who has an 18% winning percentage and a 48% WPS percentage this year. While Estillo Talentoso should have her way at the wire, the battle should be tight for second place between #2 Independent Miss and # 7 Ever Smart. Endurance shouldn’t be a problem for Independent Miss, who is making her fourth-mile run. She is coming off her best showing, in terms of rating, as she finished fourth in a mile and sixteenth outing. The half-sibling of stakes winner Muggsamatic has two top 3 finishes in her last three outings. Ever Smart makes her Gulfstream debut after beginning her career at Tampa Bay where she finished second going a mile on the turf the last time out. She also finished second two starts back on the natural surface going one mile and 40 yards. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell’s barn has a 19% success rate when coming off the turf and racing on dirt.

Picks: With Estillo Talentoso likely being the overwhelming favorite, I am going with a trifecta bet of #4 keyed with the #7, #2. I also will go with a show bet with the #7.

Race 5- $25,000 Claiming (Purse - $27,000)

This main track race set for one mile should be a dandy as there are three horses that stand out. #1 Flaming Hot is on the rail and gets Paco Lopez in the saddle. Flaming Hot also is taking a drop in class but in order for the 3-year-old to score in this event, he will need a better performance in start No. 2 for trainer Elizabeth Dobles after fading to sixth in his previous outing. Flaming Hot has a career 66.7% WPS rate but he is making his first career start at this distance. I expect Miguel Vasquez to try to set the pace with #8 Dizzy Sight, along with Flaming Hot, out of the gate. Dizzy Sight returns to Gulfstream, where the 4-year-old gelding has finished in the money in two of three outings, after finishing fifth against similar foes at Tampa Bay his last time out. #5 Septemberten is stretching out to seven furlongs after back-to-back fourth-place finishes versus better going six furlongs. The 4-year-old gelding has medaled in eight of 12 career events.

Picks: I like an exacta bet of #1, #8, #4.

Race 9 -- Allowance Optional Claiming $25,000 (Purse - $47,000)

Like race No. 4, the real battle doesn’t appear to be for first as #3 Indimaaj appears to be the cream of the crop but rather who is second best. Indimaaj showed well in his first start at this level on May 24, which was also marked his 2020 debut, as the 5-year-old horse posted a career-best 101 ESpeed rating despite finishing a distant second going one and one-sixteenth miles on a sloppy track. Indimaaj has reached the podium in two of his three starts at this distance, including a victory a few years ago. #1 Ice Tea is taking a class drop after finishing sixth against $50,000 optional claimers going one and one-sixteenth miles on Aug. 25. That disappointing finish followed two outstanding efforts where he finished third in the Little Magician Stakes and defeated formidable foes at the $62, 500 optional claimers on the turf. The mile track seems to suit the 6-year-old gelding, who will have Paco Lopez onboard, just fine as he has won 60% of his career races at this distance. #5 Notsosubtle is stepping up in class after recording a mammoth eight and one-half length victory on a sloppy but sealed track going a mile in distance against $12,500 claimers. While the 5-year-old gelding isn’t strictly a natural track runner though it appears to be his best surface as all three of his scores have come here. Notsosubtle also a 33% win rate at this distance. #6 Quanane should also be a contender. The 6-year-old, the 2020 Rough and Ready Stakes champion has his $50,000 claiming tag cut in half after never being in contention and finishing fifth at the previous level the last time out.

Picks: I like a win bet on the #3. I also like a show bet on #1 as well as an exacta box of #1, #3. Additionally, I like a trifecta box bet of #3, #1, #5, #6.