2020 American League Central Season Preview
AL Central preview: (Jordy McElroy)
1)Minnesota Twins
World Series Odds: 16-1
AL Pennant Odds: 7-1
AL Central Odds: 2-3
It would be asking a lot for the Minnesota Twins to sustain the magical run they went on last season. They broke the record for most home runs in a season by smacking 307 pitches over the wall, and they also knocked off the Cleveland Indians to win the AL Central division.
Their storybook ending was ultimately ruined in the playoffs by the New York Yankees, again. After putting together a 101-61 record, they were swept in the American League Divisional Series, marking the fourth-straight time they have been knocked out by the Yankees.
They are 0-10 against the Yankees in their last 10 playoff outings.
There is hope for more big hits and potentially getting over the playoff hump in 2020. The city of Minnesota is surely starving for postseason success considering they haven’t won a series since defeating the Oakland Athletics and advancing to the American League Championship Series back in 2002.
Twins manager Rocco Baldelli even went as far as putting the team in the conversation to win a World Series. The Washington Nationals went on a run.
Why not the Twins?
“It was a good feeling to hear [Baldelli] say that. He said, ‘We’re here to win a World Series,’ and it makes you say, yeah, we can do that,” said right-handed pitcher Jose Berrios, via the Star Tribune. “Last year we made the ALDS, and it’s a really good team. So why not? We can move forward.”
Rotation:
The rotation for the Twins seems fairly set in stone with most of the drama coming at the very end.
Berrios is settling into being deemed the Twins’ ace after finishing with a season-best 3.68 ERA. There is still plenty of work to do before the 25-year-old is considered an elite pitcher, but he could certainly be on his way towards a breakout season if he continues his upward trajectory.
Kenta Maeda coming over from the Los Angeles Dodgers gives the Twins another veteran arm in the rotation to help bridge the falloff behind Berrios. Minnesota ranked 21st in the league in hits and 14th in runs allowed. Opponents also averaged a .318 on-base percentage.
If the Twins hope to compete with the best teams in the league, they’re going to have to shore up their holes on defense.
There is also hope that 29-year-old righty Jake Odorizzi can continue to find his stride in the rotation after posting a career-high 178 strikeouts, along with a 1.21 WHIP and 3.51 ERA last season.
The questions start to come behind newly-signed pitcher Homer Bailey. Can journeyman righty Jhoulys Chacin sneak into the starting rotation after signing a minor league deal with the team?
LHP Taylor Rogers (2-4, 2.61 ERA, 30 svs) returns as the closer. He has posted 12 saves or more with four outs last year, which was the most for the Twins since 1990.
Lineup:
The meat and potatoes of the Twins’ 2019 success came at the plate.
If you wanted to scare an MLB pitcher, all you had to do was throw on a Twins jersey and carry a baseball bat around. It isn’t easy to bury the sort of respect generated from the historic season Minnesota pieced together.
Along with acquiring Maeda and Bailey, the team added third baseman Josh Donaldson (.259, 37 HR, 94 RBI), and veteran catcher Alex Avila. With C.J. Cron exiting in the offseason, the team would love if Donaldson could dust off his All-Star glory years. That sort of time machine presence would spark an already dangerous batting lineup. CF Byron Buxton (.262, 10, 46, 14sb) has great speed and tools but shoulder injuries have slowed him down the last two seasons. Right fielder Max Kepler (.252, 36 HR, 90 RBI, 4.4 WAR) has become one of the best corner outfielders in the league. LF Eddie Rosario (.26, 32. 109) doesn’t walk much, but he can rake.
Avila figures to work behind Mitch Garver (.273, 31 HR, 67 RBI) at catcher in an effort to keep the 2019 Silver Slugger Award winner fresh. Aside from those changes, it’s the same group that struck fear into the hearts of pitchers all over the league last season.
They may not hit as many home runs, but the boogeyman lineup featuring Kepler and Nelson Cruz (.311, 41 HR, 108 RBI) is alive and well for the Twins.
Outlook:
Vegas Insider has the Twins sitting as the favorites to repeat as divisional champions with 2-to-3 odds.
It makes sense considering the Indians have put themselves in limbo with a lack of urgency shown in the offseason. Their defense has question marks entering the 2020 season, and they are void of the offensive firepower that has turned the Twins into one of the league’s most feared hitting teams.
Forget about the Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals. There’s a better chance of getting struck by lightning than either one of them competing to win a division. And while the White Sox might actually be good enough to finish with a winning record, they haven’t matured to the point where I’d pick them to win the division.
I wouldn’t go as far as picking the Twins to win the World Series, but they’ll find a way to win the AL Central division and throw their name back into the mix.
2)Cleveland Indians
World Series Odds: 25-1
AL Pennant Odds: 12-1
AL Central Odds: 5-2
The Cleveland Indians are clearly following the definition of insanity.
Imagine the frustrations from fans of a team that’s doing the same thing and expecting different results. The Minnesota Twins have surged ahead in the AL Central division, and the Chicago White Sox are on the brink of a breakout season. Then there are the Indians, standing idly by and watching the rest of the division bury them in the standings.
The talent is there to stay in win-now mode, but the Indians appear to be moonwalking out of contention. Their complacency during the offseason isn’t sitting well with a fan-base that is slowly starting to lose patience.
They strung together a 93-69 record last season, but it still wasn’t good enough to fend off the Twins or earn a wild-card playoff spot. It was the first time the team watched the playoffs from home since the 2015 season. It was also the first time since that period that they failed to capture a divisional crown.
Rotation:
Mike Clevinger (12.3Ks/9 IP)is looking like the new ace for the Indians after the team shipped former two-time AL CY Young winner Corey Kluber off in a trade to the Texas Rangers.
That has essentially left a bit of uncertainty in the ability of the Indians to bounce back and resume their defensive dominance. Clevinger is currently mending a meniscus injury in his left knee, which would put Shane Bieber (15-8, 3.28 ERA) at the forefront of the rotation if the season started today.
Fun times.
There are plenty of arms to make opposing batters miss in their rotation, but it would also be naïve to assume losing an ace pitcher couldn’t produce a domino effect of struggles.
Not to mention 32-year-old righty Carlos Carrasco (6-7, 5.29 ERA) is working his way back from an injury. Depending on the start date of the season, that injury could force even more pressure on the starting rotation. Carrasco earned AL Comeback Player of the Year last season after battling his way back onto the field from a leukemia diagnosis.
The Indians could certainly use his leadership on the mound with Kluber leaving the team.
Zach Plesac and Adam Plutko will round off the rotation if opening day is delayed long enough for Clevinger and Carrasco to both return to action. Lefty Brad Hand (6-4, 3.30 ERA, 34 svs) is the closer with the wicked slider. He has averaged 13.2 Ks/9 IP in two years with the Tribe.
Lineup:
Francisco Lindor (.284, 32 HR, 74 RBI, 22 sb) could have just as easily followed Kluber out the door if the Indians had their way. They spent most of the offseason shopping their star shortstop but failed to pull the trigger on any blockbuster trades that would have sent him packing.
It can’t feel good being a four-time MLB All-Star playing for a team that wants you one day and wants to trade you the next. Such has been the case for Lindor since the end of the 2019 season. To make matters worse, the Indians still haven’t given any clear indication of whether they’re going to work towards signing him to a long-term extension or trading him for more assets.
The team did go out and sign Cesar Hernandez (.279, 14, 71 in Philly) to a deal after declining Jason Kipnis’ $16.5 million option. That isn’t the sort of move that’s going to rally a disheartened fan-base, but it’s a necessary one to fill the void at second base. DH Franmil Reyes (6-5, 275) just basically hits bombs (37 HRs between Cleveland and San Diego) and won’t have to hurt the team by playing outfield. Reyes provides the power along with first baseman Carlos Santana (.281, 34 HR, 93 RBI).
The Indians lacked the explosive hitting power at the plate that put the Twins over the top. They ranked 22nd in the league in hits and 15th in average runs scored. I wouldn’t bank on the offense seeing much of a spark with the team maintaining the status quo.
Outlook:
Even though Vegas Insider has the Indians sitting at 5-to-2 odds to win their division, this is the wrong season to be passive in the AL Central.
The Twins are the team to beat with their hard-hitting lineup consistently sending balls into orbit. Cleveland is sadly mistaken if they think last season’s home run derby-like numbers posted by Minnesota was a one-time thing.
But the true stake in the heart will come at the hands of the rapidly improving White Sox. This will be the year where the youth movement takes over and upends the Indians from at least second place for the first time since 2015.
Perhaps that’ll light a fire under the organization to be more aggressive in acquiring talent. The days are long gone when the Indians could simply sit pat and win in a bad division.
3)Chicago White Sox
World Series Odds: 50-1
AL Pennant Odds: 25-1
AL Central Odds: 4-1
The young gun Chicago White Sox are chomping at the bit for a breakout season. Cue the legions of fans surely rolling their eyes at the mere mention of change coming to the Windy City. It’s the sort of change that would rattle the American League Central division and leave the rival Chicago Cubs shaking in their boots.
A new sheriff could be in town in 2020.
The White Sox teased improvements last season when posting their best record since 2016. They finished with a 72-89 record and third place in the AL Central behind the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Indians. The team hasn’t put together a winning season since 2012, and they’ve missed the playoffs since the 2008 season. That was back when Carlos Quentin took home the Silver Slugger Award and MLB Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr. was still in the lineup.
In the words of newly-signed White Sox pitcher Dallas Keuchel’s mom, it’s “playoffs or die, b-----s.”
“She hadn’t paid up on a few bets before that, so she wasn’t the happiest. So she did it for me,” said Keuchel, via NBC Sports Chicago. “We’ve gone back and forth on numerous bets over the years. She doesn’t like public speaking by any means, so that was the gist of it for her to get up there and keep it light-hearted. Just say, ‘Hey, hope everyone had a great time. Good luck on the season,’ and then I had her say the b-word.”
Rotation
Along with Gio Gonzalez, Keuchel will bring a much-needed veteran presence to the White Sox’s young pitching rotation in 2020.
The two-time MLB All-Star is a former World Series champion, four-time Golden Glove winner and a former AL CY Young winner. His addition behind rising star Lucas Giolito should have Chicagoans brimming with excitement heading into the new season.
Giolito went 14-9 in 2019 with a 3.14 ERA and 228 strikeouts—a breakout performance impressive enough to earn him his first-ever All-Star nod. One can only imagine the heights his game could reach now that he’s finally settling in and finding his comfort as a big-leaguer. His sudden jump also provides hope that Dylan Cease could see a marginal uptick in production as well after a relatively quiet rookie season.
If 26-year-old righty Reynaldo Lopez can get back to being the promising pitcher he flashed in 2018, the White Sox could be on the verge of being the surprise team in the AL. Lopez finished with a 1.27 WHIP and 3.91 ERA a couple of years ago as opposed to the 1.46 WHIP and 5.38 ERA he posted in 2019.
The closer is Alex Colome, who converted 30 of 33 saves last season.
Lineup
The hitting lineup should also be sparked by returning AL batting champion Tim Anderson, who led the AL with a .335 batting average. However, the most exciting addition will be the $50 million man, Luis Robert, making his big-league debut with the White Sox.
The 22-year-old newcomer doesn’t plan on a return to the minors after his splash signing. He’s hell-bent on putting his stamp on the majors this season. His name is only one in a growing line of talent that also includes second baseman, Nick Madrigal.
There is plenty to improve on offensively for a White Sox team that was up and down throughout the 2019 season. Such is to be expected from a young lineup that is still figuring things out. Yet, there is hope that an extra year of growth and experience will ultimately pay off when the team steps to the plate in the opener.
They finished last season ranked 24th in the league in OPS, despite ranking seventh in hits. The team also only averaged 4.40 runs per game. But I’m expecting those numbers to improve with another season under the belt.
Jose Abreu remains a veteran presence in the lineup, alongside a pair of burgeoning power hitters in Yoan Moncada and Eloy Jimenez.
Outlook:
Vegas Insider currently has the White Sox at 50-to-1 odds of winning the World Series and 25-to-1 of winning the AL division. Meanwhile, they are sitting at 4-to-1 odds behind the Twins and Indians in the AL Central.
I wouldn’t go as far as saying the White Sox will wrestle away the crown from the home run-thumping Twins, but this will be the season when they finally start to make things interesting.
That’s bad news for a passive Cleveland Indians team that traded away ace Corey Kluber in the offseason. The Twins will keep on smacking pitches with the White Sox overtaking the Indians in second place.
Momma Keuchel might actually get her wish.
4)Kansas City Royals
World Series Odds: 500-1
AL Pennant Odds: 250-1
AL Central Odds: 60-1
Believing in the process means being terrible at times, and no team has taken that to heart more than the Kansas City Royals. Legendary manager Ned Yost left the broken shell of a team in the hands of former St. Louis Cardinals manager Mike Matheny.
So the new era of Royals baseball won’t look much different than the old one. It wasn’t necessarily in Yost’s plans for things to turn out like this, but that’s exactly how things will end up at the eventual start of the 2020 season.
“My plan all along was to get us through the rough times then turn it over to a new manager to bring us the rest of the way. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed my time here as your manager and will never forget the good and the hard times we had together as an organization and a fan base,” Yost said in a statement, via KCTV News.
You’d have to rewind all the way to the 2015 season to find happier days for a Royals team that hasn’t even made the playoffs in the last four seasons. They have also been accused of tanking after finishing with less than 60 wins in back-to-back seasons.
Who are these Royals, and are they any closer to returning as contenders?
Rotation:
The Royals’ ERA was the fourth-worst in baseball last season, leaving less room for optimism heading into 2020. They didn’t go out and make any splash signings to help buoy a sinking ship. Why do that if sinking is part of the overall strategy?
I’ll refrain from getting into any tinfoil conspiracies for why Royals fans will likely spend all of next season being let down by the same arms from 2019.
Kansas City ace Danny Duffy (7-6, 4.34) could be looking at a make-or-break year heading into the fourth season of his five-year, $65 million deal. It wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the oft-injured 31-year-old dumped off in a trade.
The Royals are hopeful to see righty Brad Keller get back to the promise he showed before his sophomore slump in the big leagues. He recorded a 9-6 record with 96 strikeouts and a 3.08 ERA in the 2018 season. If he can continue to improve as a pitcher and Jakob Junis can return to health, the Royals could see a spark of life on the mound. Veteran Mike Montgomery will also have more time to adjust to his new team after being traded by the Chicago Cubs last July.
As for the fifth spot, I’d bank on Jorge Lopez earning the nod in the rotation over Glenn Sparkman.
In the bullpen, former starter Ian Kennedy (3-2, 3.41 ERA, 30 svs) is one of five MLB players to have recorded 20 win and 30-save seasons.
Lineup
Along with a suspect rotation, the Royals didn’t do themselves any favors at the plate last season, either. Detroit Tigers fans weren’t the only ones wearing brown paper sacks to hide their faces when attending ballgames.
The Royals were the fifth-worst team in average runs scored and 21st in the league in hits. They also finished the 2019 season with the league’s fourth-worst OPS. Whit Merrifield (.302, 20 SB, 16 HR, 74 RBI) and Jorge Soler (48 HR, 117 RBI) are the diamonds in the rough, and both will likely continue to have their potential wasted next season.
Locking outfielder Alex Gordon up for another year was a shrewd move by the Royals. They also parted ways with former third baseman Cheslor Cuthbert and turned their attention to Maikel Franco (.234, 17 HR, 565 RBI with Phillies), who signed a one-year deal with the team back in December.
Kansas City was ranked 28th in the league in average home runs per game. This isn’t a team with even a puncher’s chance in what is quickly becoming one of the toughest divisions in baseball. Perhaps young hopefuls like Nicky Lopez (.240) and Adalberto Mondesi (.263, 43 SBs) experience breakout years to change the overall outlook.
Outlook:
The Royals are currently sitting at 60-to-1 odds of winning the AL Central division. I won’t even entertain playoff odds considering this team is still a long way out from even making that a consideration. This may not be football, but coach Jim Mora’s legendary rant works just as well for the Royals.
Improvement is the primary goal for Kansas City in 2020, along with avoiding a worse finish than the Tigers. We can pretend like avoiding a last-place finish isn’t a contest, but it would be naïve with the struggling Royals and Tigers playing in the same division.
I’m still willing to bank on Merrifield’s bat leading the way to at least a better record than Detroit, even if that isn’t saying very much.
5)Detroit Tigers
World Series Odds: 1000-1
AL Pennant Odds: 500-1
AL Central Odds: 500-1
The Detroit Tigers were on the verge of the wrong side of history in 2019. It’s the side that ends with ashamed fans wearing grocery sacks to ballgames.
The situation teetered towards the rock-bottom lows of the 2003 season, when the Tigers lost 119 games. That moment in history hangs over the Tigers organization like an immutable cloud of darkness. It was the year the team came within a loss of tying the 1962 New York Mets for the most losses in the modern MLB era.
Leave it to the 2019 Tigers to embark on a “hold my beer” moment.
They finished the season with a 47-114 record and fell back to fifth place in the AL Central division. Even the 59-103 Kansas City Royals looked decent in comparison. After the season, team manager Ron Gardenhire chalked the disappointing season up to the ongoing youth movement in Detroit. He is hopeful that patience will prevail as his staff continues their efforts in implementing a culture shock.
“Challenging,” Gardenhire said, via Detroit News, when summing up the season in one word. “This has been challenging because we had to deal with a lot of injuries early and we had to deal with having a lot of rookies on the field at the same time. There was a lot of teaching. It’s been challenging but I think we’ll all learn and grow from it. We’ve taken a beating, all the losses. We take that very hard. But there’s been times when it’s been very rewarding, too.”
Rotation:
However, all of the doom and gloom talk is mitigated by the hope the team has in its burgeoning pitching rotation. Casey Mize topped Vegas Insider0 of right-handed prospects heading into the 2020 season, while Matt Manning came in at No. 7. Left-handed pitcher Tarik Skubal came in at No. 4 on the Vegas Insider1.
So there certainly isn’t a sky is falling outlook right now in Detroit. The well is overflowing with young pitching talent that could soon be called up to help turn things around for the Tigers.
There should be plenty of familiarity with the pitching rotation running with Matthew Boyd as the ace, alongside Daniel Norris, Spencer Turnbull, Jordan Zimmermann, and former Chicago White Sox righty Ivan Nova.
Boyd couldn’t get over the nine-win hump but posted a career-high 238 strikeouts last season. He went backward with a 4.56 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in a year when he played in 32 games while allowing 39 home runs (led AL). The Tigers will lean heavily on him, along with the rest of the starting rotation, to keep opposing teams off the scoreboard. Things typically turn downright ugly in a hurry if the lineup is called upon to score four or more runs.
Joe Jimenez is the closer, who recorded nine saves last season. He has a hard sinker with a strong changeup, but his lack of command makes for a shaky closer.
Lineup:
Things get downright disappointing when considering the lack of firepower from a Tigers team that boasted one of the worst offenses in years in 2019.
There is hope that a veteran influx of talent with catcher Austin Romine, second baseman Jonathan Schoop (.256, 23 HR, 59 RBI) and first baseman C.J. Cron (.253, 25 HR, 78 RBI) can help breathe some life into an offense that ranked 30th in the league in run-scoring average.
But I wouldn’t hold my breath on a quick turnaround for a team that is clearly still in a rebuilding phase. The Tigers ranked near the bottom of the league in every important batting category. They ranked dead last in on-base percentage and RBIs.
The only offensive entertainment Detroit fans get these days is watching future Hall of Famer Miguel Cabrera (.282, 12, 59) play out his remaining years as a big-leaguer. It will be much of the same in the 2020 season as well.
Rinse, wash and repeat.
Outlook:
The Baltimore Orioles are the only other team in baseball with worse odds to win their division than the Tigers (500-to-1). That isn’t saying much considering the Orioles have the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays in their division.
But the AL Central could soon inch into the same murderer’s row direction with the hard-hitting Minnesota Twins, steady Cleveland Indians and rapidly improving Chicago White Sox competing for the crown. Things could get worse before they get any better for the Tigers.
I wouldn’t bank on them beating out the Royals to avoid being dubbed the worst team in the AL Central division. They’ll win more games and still end up sitting dead last behind the other four teams.
Another year of trusting the process without blowing a gasket is on tap for Gardenhire and company. A day is coming when brown bags will be used for groceries instead of masks in Detroit.
It just won’t be this season.
