2020 National League Central Season Preview
National League Central (Scott Reichel)
1)Chicago Cubs
World Series Odds: 20-1
NL Pennant Odds: 9-1
NL Central Odds: 2-1
Last season, the Chicago Cubs were on pace to win another division title before it completely imploded down the stretch en route to an 84-78 record. However, some of those issues were due to injuries to key players which practically sucked the life out of the organization and potentially led to the epic collapse. Either way, the front office decided to blame manager Joe Maddon and did not renew his contract. Replacing him will be first-time manager David Ross who was a member of Chicago’s World Series team in 2016. The Chicago Cubs managed to keep four of their five starting pitchers from last season which should lead to some positive results.
Rotation:
Leading the rotation will be veteran southpaw Jon Lester, who was mediocre in 2019 after finishing the season with a 13-10 record along with a 4.46 ERA. However, he underachieved during the season half of the season as he had a 5.35 ERA after the All-Star Break. The second starter will be Yu Darvish, who was streaky last year after finishing the 2019 season with a 6-8 record along with a 3.98 ERA. However, Darvish did have a 2.76 ERA after the All-Star Break so he did look a lot more comfortable during the second half of the season. The third pitcher in the rotation will be Kyle Hendricks, who was the most consistent starter last season as he finished with an 11-10 record and a 3.46 ERA (lowest among all starters). However, he also had a 5.02 ERA on the road so he struggled away from Wrigley Field in 2019. The fourth pitcher in the rotation will be Jose Quintana, who was pretty good last season as he finished with a 13-9 record and a 4.68 ERA. In addition, he won seven of his nine decisions after the All-Star Break so he finished the season in good form. The last spot is a bit unknown as Cole Hamels decided to sign with the Braves during the offseason. In his absence, Tyler Chatwood is expected to be the fifth starter after starting just five games for Chicago in 2019.
As for the bullpen, veteran Craig Kimbrel returns from a disastrous campaign where he ended up 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA and 13 saves. The Cubs need a bounce-back season from him. Right-hander Rowan Wick (2-0, 2.43 ERA, 2svs) and left-hander Kyle Ryan (4-2, 3.54 ERA) are both hard-throwers that could also get big outs in late-inning situations.
Lineup:
Chicago brings back a lot of familiar faces to the starting lineup in 2020 and it will hope to score a lot of runs once again. The Cubs finished last season averaging 5.02 runs per game, which was tied for tenth in the league. Batting in the leadoff spot will be outfielder Ian Happ, who batted .264 BA along with 11 HRs with a .333 OBP. However, he only played in 58 games as he battled injuries for the bulk of the regular season. Batting second will be third baseman Kris Bryant, who was pretty good last season as he had 31 HRs along with 77 RBIs and a 4.8 WAR. Bryant was linked to some trade rumors during the offseason but Chicago decided to keep him around to remain a staple in the lineup. Batting third will be first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who was very solid last season as he had a .293 BA along with a team-high 94 RBIs and a .405 OBP. Batting fourth will be shortstop Javier Baez who was amazing last season with 29 homers along with 85 RBIs and had a 4.4 WAR. Baez was actually in serious running for the NL MVP before missing 20 games in September due to injury. Batting in the fifth spot will be outfielder Kyle Schwarber, who was very dangerous last season as he had a team-high 38 HRs along with 92 RBIs. Batting sixth will be catcher Willson Contreras, who was good last season as he had 24 HRs along with 64 RBIs. However, he only had hit .238 after the All-Star Break, so he looked significantly worse during the second half of the regular season. Batting seventh will be outfielder Jason Heyward, who was okay last season as he had a .251 BA along with 21 homers and 62 RBIs. He’s one of the best right fielders in the game. Batting eighth will be second baseman Nico Hoerner, who was solid in limited action as he had a .282 BA along with 17 RBIs in just 78 ABs.
Outlook:
The Cubs have the talent to easily win this division as long as their key players stay healthy which has been an issue in recent seasons. The lineup is stacked and the rotation is experienced which is a good combination for any contending team to possess. Although Chicago does have some questions regarding the bullpen and its new manager, I was never a big fan of Maddon as a manager so I do not expect this team to suddenly implode with a different voice in the dugout. Plus, I expect Chicago to make another acquisition before the trade deadline for reinforcements which should be enough for the Cubs to win the NL Central in 2020.
2)St. Louis Cardinals:
World Series Odds: 30-1
NL Pennant Odds: 15-1
NL Central Odds: 12-5
Last season, the St. Louis Cardinals were able to win their first NL Central title since 2015 while finishing the regular season with a 91-71 record. However, the Cardinals actually started the season off pretty slowly as they possessed a losing record through 89 games. Luckily, some offseason acquisitions like Paul Goldschmidt eventually came back into form and helped get St. Louis back on track during the second half of the season. The Cardinals rode that momentum past the Braves in the NLDS before getting swept by the Nationals in the NLCS.
Rotation
The St. Louis Cardinals managed to keep the bulk of their starting rotation from last season intact and will be hoping that it will help lead them back into the postseason for the second straight season. Leading the rotation will be ace Jack Flaherty, who was fantastic last season after finishing the 2019 campaign with an 11-8 record along with a 2.75 ERA. In addition, he had a 7-2 record with an insane 0.91 ERA after the All-Star Break, so St. Louis will hope that some of that momentum will carry over into this season. Joining him in the rotation will be Miles Mikolas, who had a down year in 2019 after finishing the season with a 9-14 record along with a 4.16 ERA. However, he did possess a 3.01 ERA in home games so most of his underwhelming performances came on the road. Mikolas is dealing with a right flexor strain, but the time off should allow him to join the rotation. The third pitcher in the rotation will be Dakota Hudson who had a breakout year in 2019 as he finished with a 16-7 record and a 3.35 ERA. The fourth pitcher in the rotation will be veteran Adam Wainwright who was pretty good last season as he finished with a 14-10 record and a 4.19 ERA. However, he also had a 6.22 ERA in road games so he was a disaster in hostile environments. The last spot in the rotation is a bit of a question mark as Michael Wacha decided to sign with the Mets during the offseason. Carlos Martinez is expected to return to the rotation as a result after spending last season as St. Louis’ closer. However, Martinez had mixed results in the bullpen as he recorded 24 saves in the regular season before having a 14.73 ERA in the postseason. If Martinez can’t go, the Cards could turn to 31-year old newcomer Kwang-hyun Kim, a southpaw from South Korea.
As for the bullpen, left-hander Andrew Miller has had issues with arms and fingers in terms of getting a feel for his pitchers. Right-hander Giovanny Gallegos is now the current favorite for saves and is expected to be the closer.
Lineup
Similarly to the starting rotation, the starting lineup for the Cardinals is expected to look a lot like last season’s as seven of the eight everyday players are returning. The only exception is outfielder Marcell Ozuna who is now on the Atlanta Braves. Batting in the leadoff spot will be outfielder Dexter Fowler, who struggled last season as he only had a .238 BA while also having 67 RBIs. He was even worse in the postseason as he only recorded two hits in 33 ABs. What he does bring is solid defense. Batting in the two-hole will be second baseman Kolten Wong who was pretty good last season as he had a .285 BA along with 24 stolen bases. However, Wong did battle some injuries towards the end of the season and he will be looking to stay healthy for the entire 2020 season. Batting third will be first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who was great last season as he led the roster in home runs (34) and RBIs (97). Batting fourth will be shortstop Paul DeJong who was pretty good in 2019 as he had 30 HRs along with 78 RBIs. Batting in the fifth spot will be third baseman Matt Carpenter who was very underwhelming last season as he only had a .226 BA along with just 46 RBIs. Batting sixth will be catcher Yadier Molina who was good last season with .270 BA along with 57 RBIs in 419 at-bats. However, Molina is now 37 years old so one has to wonder just how much he has left in the tank at this stage in his career. Batting seventh could be outfielder Lane Thomas who played well in very limited action last season. In just 34 games, he had a .316 BA along with a .409 OBP. Another option is Tyler O’Neill (.262), another 24-year old left-fielder. Batting eighth will be outfielder Harrison Bader, who struggled last season as he only had a .205 BA along with just 39 RBIs.
Outlook:
The Cardinals should look like a solid team once again this season as they were able to bring back the majority of key pieces from last season’s playoff team. However, I am still a bit concerned about the streakiness of this lineup which went through some long droughts during the course of the regular season and postseason in 2019. The rotation is solid but I still have some question marks due to Wainwright’s age and Mikolas’ inability to pitch well on the road in 2019. As a result, St. Louis should be in the hunt for another NL Central title but I think that it will finish the season in second place.
3)Cincinnati Reds
World Series Odds: 20-1
NL Pennant Odds: 9-1
NL Central Odds: 2-1
Last season, the Cincinnati Reds were underwhelming once again as they finished the regular season with a 75-87 record. As a result, Cincinnati finished in possession of fourth place in the NL Central. Now, Cincinnati will be looking for a much better campaign in 2020, as it will hope to make it back into the postseason for the first time since 2013.
Rotation:
The Cincinnati Reds spent part of the offseason bolstering their rotation via free agency. Leading the rotation will be ace Luis Castillo who was very good in 2019 after finishing the season with a 15-8 record along with a 3.40 ERA. He also held hits to a .202 average, which ranked third-best in the National League. However, he had a 4.78 ERA after the All-Star Break, so he looked a lot worse in the second half of the season. The second starter will be Sonny Gray, who returned to form last season after finishing the 2019 season with an 11-8 record along with a 2.87 ERA. In addition, Gray had a 2.12 ERA after the All-Star Break, so he was fantastic down the stretch. The third pitcher in the rotation will be Trevor Bauer, who was very underwhelming last season as he had an 11-13 record along with a 4.48 ERA. Cincinnati actually acquired him right before the Trade Deadline and he had a 2-5 record after joining the organization, so he will be looking for a bounce-back season. The fourth pitcher in the rotation will be Anthony DeSclafani, who was decent last season as he had a 9-9 record along with a 3.89 ERA. The fifth starter will be veteran southpaw Wade Miley, who was very good last season with the Astros. Miley had a 14-6 record along with a 3.98 ERA before Cincinnati signed him to a two-year deal during the offseason. He’s definitely a hired gun as Miley is pitching for his seventh team in seven years.
The closer will be Raisel Iglesias, who had 34 saves and 89 strikeouts in 67 innings. He leads MLB with 30 saves working more than one inning over the last four seasons. They also have an outstanding set-up man in Michael Lorenzen, who has a dominant four-seam fastball and curveball.
Lineup:
Cincinnati spent a lot of money adding some serious talent to its starting lineup in 2020, which was a necessary move after it finished last season averaging 4.33 runs per game which ranked 25th in the league. Batting in the leadoff spot will be outfielder Shogo Akiyama, who Cincinnati signed to a three-year deal during the offseason. Last season, he had a .303 BA along with 20 HRs and 62 RBIs in Japan. He’s a lefty and has some speed (12 steals). Batting second will be first baseman Joey Votto, who was awful last season as he had just 15 HRs along with 47 RBIs. That was the worst season of his career and he will be looking to get back on track in 2020. He also has four years left on a 10-year deal. Batting in the three-hole will be third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who was great last season as he had a team-high 49 HRs along with a team-high 103 RBIs. However, he also underwent shoulder surgery during the offseason so he might be unavailable for the start of the season. Batting fourth will be second baseman Mike Moustakas who was very good last season with Milwaukee, as he had 35 HRs along with 87 RBIs which caused Cincinnati to sign him to a four-year deal during the offseason. Batting in the fifth spot will be outfielder Nick Castellanos who was solid last season with Detroit and Chicago as he had a .289 BA along with 27 HRs which caused Cincinnati to sign him to a four-year contract. Batting sixth will be outfielder Jesse Winker, who was okay last season as he had 16 HRs along with a .357 OBP. Batting seventh will be center fielder Tucker Barnhart, who was a bit underwhelming last season as he only had a .231 BA along with just 11 HRs. He’s a strong defender, but can’t hit lefties (.133 last year). Batting eighth will be shortstop Freddy Galvis who hit 23 homers last season to go along with 70 RBIs., but had a terrible 0.296 OBP.
Outlook:
The Reds were one of the biggest spenders during the offseason and acquired a ton of talent as a result. However, Cincinnati has not finished with a winning record since 2013 so it is a bit odd for the Reds to suddenly have some expectations. I am personally a bit skeptical of Cincinnati since it has not proved anything up to this point but I do expect to see some improvement due to the upgrades at several positions. Therefore, I think that the Reds will finish the season with a winning record as they should be able to do enough in order to finish third in the NL Central.
4)Milwaukee Brewers
World Series Odds: 50-1
NL Pennant Odds: 25-1
NL Central Odds: 6-1
Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers managed to salvage their season with a late run en route to an 89-73 record which was good enough to make the postseason. However, Milwaukee blew a lead late in the NL Wild Card Game against Washington and was eliminated from the postseason. Now, the Brewers will look to make it back into the postseason despite some huge roster changes. The Milwaukee Brewers have lost some of their starting pitchers from last season and they will be hoping that the new additions will be able to hold their own.
Rotation:
Leading the rotation will be Brandon Woodruff, who was very good in 2019 after finishing the season with an 11-3 record along with a 3.62 ERA. However, he only started 22 games as he battled injuries for a decent portion of the schedule. The second starter will be Adrian Houser, who was okay last season after finishing the 2019 campaign with a 6-7 record along with a 3.72 ERA. However, Houser did have a 3.17 ERA at home last season so he looked very comfortable at Miller Park. The third pitcher in the rotation will be Brett Anderson, who was pretty good last season with Oakland, finishing with a 13-9 record and a 3.89 ERA The fourth pitcher in the rotation will be Eric Lauer, who Milwaukee acquired during the offseason in a trade with San Diego. Last season, Lauer had an 8-10 record along with a 4.45 ERA so he will be hoping that the change of scenery will improve his performance. The fifth starter will be Josh Lindblom, who was amazing last season in the KBO League as he had a 20-3 record along with 2.50 ERA was why he won the KBO League Most Valuable Player Award. Now, Lindblom will hope that some of that success will carry over into the 2020 MLB season.
Josh Hader was the closer last season and averaged 15.3 strikeouts per nine innings in three MLB seasons. However, he has home-prone last season and also can be wild (NL Wild Card last season).
Lineup:
Milwaukee has a lot of new faces to the starting lineup in 2020 which could be a good thing after it finished last season averaging 4.74 runs per game which ranked 17th in the league. Batting in the leadoff spot will be outfielder Lorenzo Cain who was okay last season as he had a .260 BA along with 18 SBs. His numbers may decline, but he’s still a Gold Glover in centerfield. Batting in the two-hole will be second baseman Keston Hiura, who was pretty good last season as he had a .303 BA along with 19 HRs. However, he only played in 84 games after starting the season in the minors so he is poised to put up some huge numbers in 2020 with much bigger sample size. He also finished 10th in MLB with a 50% hard-hit rate. Batting third will be outfielder Christian Yelich, who was amazing last season as he had a .329 BA along with a team-high 44 HRs. Yelich was on pace to win another NL MVP Award before suffering a serious knee injury late in the season so he will be looking to put together another productive campaign in 2020. Batting fourth will be first baseman Justin Smoak, who was terrible last season with Toronto (.202) but did manage 22 homers, a .342 OBP along with 61 RBIs. Batting in the fifth spot will be outfielder Avisail Garcia, who was solid last season with Tampa Bay as he had 20 HRs along with 72 RBIs and a .332 OBP. Batting sixth will be catcher Omar Narvaez, who was good last season with Seattle as he had 22 HRs along with 55 RBIs. Batting seventh will be third baseman Eric Sogard, who was solid last season with Toronto and Tampa Bay as he had a .290 BA along with 40 RBIs. However, this is Sogard’s second stint with Milwaukee so he should be very comfortable playing in Miller Park once again. Batting eighth will be shortstop Orlando Arcia, who struggled last season as he had a .223 BA along with 59 RBIs. Luis Urias (.223) could bat against lefties and at 22, is the future starter. He’s showed 20-homer power-potential in the minors.
Outlook:
The Brewers have a very different looking roster in comparison to last season and there are some lingering concerns as a result. The main issue involves the pitching staff as it will be relying on several new pitchers in the starting rotation who might need some time adjusting to Miller Park. Plus, one has to wonder just how good Yelich will look following a serious knee injury. Even though Milwaukee can hypothetically make it back into the postseason, I personally do not see it as I expect the Brewers to finish the campaign with a fourth-place finish and a losing record.
5)Pittsburgh Pirates
World Series Odds: 300-1
NL Pennant Odds: 150-1
NL Central Odds: 300-1
Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were one of the worst teams in baseball as they finished in possession of last place in the NL Central with a 69-93 record. Now, expectations remain low for the Pirates who are projected to finish the 2020 season in the basement of the NL Central once again. The Pittsburgh Pirates were able to keep its entire starting rotation from last season and they will be hoping for those starters to perform a lot better in 2020.
Rotation:
Leading the rotation will be Joe Musgrove, who was mediocre last season with an 11-12 record along with a 4.44 ERA. However, he also had a 5.09 ERA at home last season so he struggled a lot in front of his home fans. The second starter will be Chris Archer, a former ace, who was awful last season due to shoulder issues, finishing with a 3-9 record along with a 5.19 ERA. To make matters worse, he went winless after the All-Star Break so he could never figure it out at any point during the regular season. The third pitcher in the rotation will be Trevor Williams, who had a 7-9 record along with a 5.38 ERA so he will be hoping that the new season will bring much better results. The fourth pitcher in the rotation will be Mitch Keller, who was awful last season as a rookie but has potential. Keller struggled with a 1-5 record along with a 7.13 ERA. However, he also had a 4.00 ERA at home last season so he looked a lot more comfortable in front of Pittsburgh’s home fans. The fifth starter will be Steven Brault, who was mediocre last season with a 4-6 record along with 5.16 ERA. He spent some time in the bullpen as well last season but he will most likely become a full-time starter in 2020.
The closer will be Keone Kela, who has 28 career saves in 39 opportunities. He dominates right-handers and has a 96-mph fastball. Felipe Vazquez was supposed to be the closer, but he may never pitch in the majors again due to on charges of sexual assault of a minor.
Lineup:
Pittsburgh will be returning most of its starting lineup in 2020 which is a decent thing after it finished last season averaging 4.68 runs per game which ranked tied for 19th in the league. Batting in the leadoff spot will be shortstop Kevin Newman, who was very good last season as he had a .308 average along with 64 RBIs. Batting second will be second baseman Adam Frazier. who was good last season as he had a .278 BA along with 154 hits and is a plus defender. However, he only had a .266 BA after the All-Star Break so he looked a bit worse as the season progressed. Batting third will be outfielder Bryan Reynolds, who was amazing last season as he had a .314 BA along with 68 RBIs with 57 extra-base hits as a rookie. Batting fourth will be first baseman Josh Bell, who was great last season as he had a team-high 37 HRs along with a team-high 116 RBIs. However, Bell got injured late and missed the last 14 games of the season which killed his NL MVP Award hopes. Batting in the fifth spot will be outfielder Gregory Polanco, who was very underwhelming last season as he had just six HRs along with 17 RBIs. However, he battled injuries all season long, which was why he only appeared in 42 games. Batting sixth will be third baseman Colin Moran, who was good last season as he had a .277 BA along with 80 RBIs. Batting seventh will be outfielder Jarrod Dyson, who struggled last season with Arizona as he had a .230 BA along with 30 SBs. Batting eighth will be catcher Jacob Stallings, who was okay last season as he had a .260 BA along with a .325 OBP in just 72 games played. He’s there for his ability as a catcher and pitch-framer.
Outlook:
The low expectations for the Pirates seem pretty reasonable as Pittsburgh clearly has the worst roster in the NL Central. The rotation is full of average to below-average pitchers while its bullpen leaves a lot to be desired so I expect the Pirates to struggle keeping the opposition off of the scoreboard on a regular basis. However, the lineup is still underrated so it should be able to get itself into a ton of high-scoring affairs during the regular season. As a result, I think that the Pirates will finish in the last place once again with a lot of room to spare.
