2020 National League East Season Preview

2020 National League East Preview

The Coronavirus is holding the sports world hostage at the moment and that obviously includes the MLB season which has been put on hold indefinitely. Still, the MLB season will eventually get started and so we will be taking a look at the National League East today. This division is shaping up as the toughest in the league, even with the Miami Marlins in it. The Mets and Phillies are improved teams while the Braves could be ready to take the next step and don’t forget about the Washington Nationals, who won it all last year.

(1) Atlanta Braves

World Series Odds: 16-1

NL Pennant Odds: 7-1

NL East Odds: 9/4

2019 Recap: The Atlanta Braves won the National League East last year by four games over the Washington Nationals. Despite posting 97 wins on the year, the Braves were still ousted NLDS for the 2nd year in a row. The Braves lost eight of the final 12 games of the regular season last year, so they did not go into the postseason with any momentum. Atlanta then went on to lose to the Cardinals in the NLDS three games to two. The last one was a 13-1 loss which left a terrible taste in the mouths of the Braves. They have a lot to prove this year.

Rotation: The Braves had a decent staff last year as they ranked 10th in the league in ERA at 4.19. That is despite the fact that they had Kevin Gausman, who posted a 6.19 ERA in 16 starts. Gausman is now in San Francisco and the Braves brought in Cole Hamels, who was 7-7 with the 3.81 ERA for the Cubs a year ago and Felix Hernandez, who was 1-8 with a 6.40 ERA for the Mariners last year. The question is, how much does King Felix have left as he has declined in each of the last three seasons. Hamels was slated to be out until mid-April but with the season expected to start after that, he will be ready by their opening day. Hamels also will give the Braves some experience in the postseason. The ace of the staff is Mike Soroka, who was 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA in 29 starts last year while Max Fried was 17-6 with a 4.02 ERA in 33 games (30 starts). Mike Foltynewicz was at one time thought of as a possible ace of the team, but after going just 8-6 with a 4.54 ERA in 21 starts last year, he could eventually be headed to the pen once some of the younger players come up from a loaded farm system. The starting pitching will again be solid but will it be enough for them to make a deep run in the postseason? We shall see. Mark Melancon came over from San Francisco last year and he had 11 saves in 23 games for the Braves. He will be their closer this year.

The Lineup: The Braves were 9th in the league in hitting at .258, 8th in homers with 249 and 9th in stolen bases with 89. This is an offense that put plenty of pressure on opposing pitchers. The one area of concern was getting clutch hits as they were 27th in men left on base at 1138. The big loss to the offense is Josh Donaldson, who had 37 homers, 94 RBIs and walked 100 times. He is now with the twins. Still, the Braves will have a strong offense that is led by leadoff man, Ronald Acuna Jr (OF), who had 41 homers, 101 RBIs and 37 stolen bases a year ago. Ozzie Albies (2B) should bat 2nd after hitting 24 homers and driving in 86 runs, while Freddie Freeman (1B) had another strong season with 38 homers and 121 RBIs. The Braves have replaced Donaldson with Marcell Ozuna (OF), who will bat 4th and had 29 homers, along with 89 RBIs for the Cardinals last year. Travis d’Arnaud (C), Dansby Swanson (SS), Austin Riley (3B), and Ender Inciarte (OF) round out the projected starting lineup. Riley is the one to watch in the bottom four of the lineup after smacking 18 homers and driving in 49 runs in just 80 games in his rookie season a year ago. The defense was strong for the Braves as they ranked 4th in the league in fielding percentage at .987%.

Conclusion: The Atlanta Braves posted 97 wins last year but they will not reach that number this year as MLB will have a shortened schedule. Still, they are the best team in a loaded National League East. The Braves have perhaps the most feared one-through-four lineup in the league and they will finish in the top five in scoring this year. The Pitching will be solid, especially with the addition of Cole Hamels. They could use another solid starter at the backend of the rotation, especially if Hernadez has another rough season. The farm system is loaded with young talent and it will be just a matter of time before their young pitching makes its presence felt. All-in-all, the Braves will win a tight race in the East.

(2) Washington Nationals

World Series Odds: 18-1

NL Pennant Odds: 8-1

NL East Odds: 9/4

2019 Recap: The Washington Nationals came into last year having gone to the postseason in four of their last seven years but in each of those instances, they were not able to make it past the NLCS. Last year, the Nats went past the NLCS all the way to winning the whole kit-and-kaboodle. The Nats won their final eight games of the regular season and then went 10-2 in their first 12 postseason games. The Nats then lost three games at home to the Astros to trail that series 3-2 heading to Houston, before winning both games to win their first world title in bases. Washington has another solid team on their hands and they will be a major factor in the NL East race.

The Rotation: The Washington Nationals had a solid staff last year but still, they ranked 13th in the league in ERA. Most of that was due to a pen that had been one of the worst in the league for much of the season. The pen played much better down the stretch and it was a big reason for their postseason success. They were 15th in the league in saves with 40 last year but should improve on that this year with Sean Doolittle after he posted 29 saves a year ago. He was not the closer all year but when inserted into the role, he was very tough. The staff is led by Max Scherzer, who was 11-7 with a 2.92 ERA in 27 starts, while Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32) and Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25 ERA) round out a strong top three of the rotation. Anibal Sanchez had a solid season with an 11-8 mark and a 3.85 ERA, while Erick Fedde (4-2, 4.50 ERA) rounds out the rotation. The Nats could use a stronger 5th starter, but overall this group looks very tough and if the pen continues to improve, this will be a top 5 pitching staff this year.

The Lineup: The Washington offense was expected to struggle last year after Bryce Harper left for the Phillies but Washington finished 6th in the league in scoring at 5.39 rpg and 13th in homers with 231. They hardly missed Harper and it showed in the numbers, plus the fact that they won the World Series. This year’s lineup does not look as good as the Braves, but still, it is a solid unit overall, including the bench which has Michael A. Taylor and Ryan Zimmerman on it. Trea Turner (SS) missed 40 games last year but he still hit 19 homers, drove in 57 runs and stole 35 bases as the lead-off hitter. Adam Eaton (OF) should bat second after hitting 15 homers and driving in 49 runs, while the big bopper is Juan Soto (OF), who hit 34 homers, drove in 110 runs and also scored 110 runs a year ago. Asdrubal Cabrera (3B) rounds out the top four after hitting 18 homers and driving in 91 runs last year. Eric Thames (1B) hit 25 homers for Milwaukee last year while the big loss was Anthony Rendon, who had 34 homers and 126 RBIs for the Nats last year. Howie Kendrick (2B), Kurt Suzuki (C), and Victor Robles (OF) round out the projected starting lineup. It is not a powerful lineup but they are a good hitting team and will still score plenty of runs. Washington was 11th in fielding percentage at .985%.

Conclusion: The Nationals have a huge target on their backs after winning the World Series a year ago. They have a solid team overall, but I feel they will come up just a bit short in the battle for the National League East. The Nats have a solid offense that will score some runs, but they will miss Anthony Rendon, who had 126 RBIs and 34 homers last year. That is a lot of missing offense and while Eric Thames had a solid season for the Brewers last year, he is not going to put up the numbers that Rendon had. The Nats have a very solid one-thru-four in their starting rotation but the pen still should be a concern for this team. Washington should be a wildcard team once again, but they will not win back-to-back World Series titles.

(3) Philadelphia Phillies

World Series Odds: 40-1

NL Pennant Odds: 20-1

NL East Odds: 9/2

2019 Recap: the Philadelphia Phillies did not have the year they were hoping for, especially after signing Bryce Harper to a mega-contract. Philadelphia finished at 81-81 and 16 games out of first place in the National League East and they have now missed the postseason eight years in a row. The Phillies did win their final two games of the year but they also went just 6-20 in their previous 26 games and it was that stretch that really kept them from challenging for at least a wildcard berth. Gabe Kapler was fired at the end of the year and the Phillies brought in Joe Girardi to take his place. The Phillies are hoping to break their long playoff drought this year.

The Rotation: The Phillies did not have great numbers on the mound last year as they were 17th in the league in ERA at 4.53. The Phillies hope that they have added a nice arm with the signing of Zack Wheeler, who went 11-8 with a 3.96 ERA in 31 starts for the Mets last year and 12-7 with a 3.31 ERA in 29 starts for them the year before. He will be joined by Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation. He was 12-7 with a 3.84 ERA in 34 starts last year after going 17-6 with a 2.37 ERA in 33 starts the year before. He is the ace of the club. Jake Arrieta is 3rd in the rotation and he has not been the pitcher the Phillies were expecting when they signed him. He has gone 18-19 with a 4.24 ERA in 55 starts as a member of the Phils the last two years. Vince Velasquez (7-8, 4.91 ERA) and Zach Eflin (10-13, 4.13 ERA) round out a less than spectacular rotation overall. The Phillies need another solid arm in the back half of their rotation. The Bullpen also needs some help overall but they may have finally landed on a solid close in Hector Neris, who had 28 saves in 34 save opportunities. Seranthony Dominguez is out indefinitely and Victor Arano is listed as day-to-day. The Phils will hope that both are ready for opening day whenever that is.

The Lineup: Last year, the Phillies signed one of the biggest prizes in the league in Bryce Harper (OF) and he was expected to change the course of this offense. It did not happen as the Phils were 14th in the league in scoring at 4.78 rpg and 22nd in homers with 215. Harper did have solid numbers overall as he hit 35 homers and drove in 114 runs. He is slated to bat 3rd in the order. Another big signing for the Phils last year was lead-off man Andrew McCutchen (OF) but he was injured very early in the year and played in just 59 games. Having him back and healthy should help the offense. Batting 2nd is expected to be JT Realmuto, who has been one of the best catchers in the league in the last few years. Last year, he hit 25 homers and drove in 83 runs while throwing out 43 of 92 attempted base stealers. Batting 4th will be Rhys Hoskins (1B), who hit 29 home runs and drove in 86 while walking 116 times. He hit just .226 and that has to improve. A big pickup on offense was Didi Gregorius (SS), who is a favorite of Girardi. Gregorius hit 16 homers and drove in 61 runs for the Yanks last year and he will now allow Jean Segura to move back to 2nd. He was another big pickup for the Phils last year. He has 12 homers and drove in 60 runs. Segura should bat 7th. Scott Kingery (3B) is slated to hit 6th while Adam Haseley (OF) will bat 8th. The Phillies will improve on last year’s numbers overall. The Phils were 15th in fielding at .984%.

Conclusion: The National League East is the toughest division in baseball and I do expect the Phillies to be in the thick of the race for most of the year. The Phillies are still weak overall in the bullpen but Girardi knows how to work a pen and he had some strong ones with the Yankees. The Starting rotation does have a solid top three but they could use help at the backend and if they don’t add another arm, it could hurt them down the stretch of the regular season. The offense will need to carry the team and with a healthy McCutchen setting the table and the addition of Gregorius they should have a better offense than a year ago. Harper will have another big year and if Hoskins can bounce back from a subpar season, the offense could be one of the better in the league. I will look for the Phils to be in the race all year but fall just a bit short of a playoff berth down the stretch.

(4) New York Mets

World Series Odds: 16-1

NL Pennant Odds: 7-1

NL East Odds: 9/4

2019 Recap: The New York Mets had a strong second half of the season but they fell a bit short of a playoff spot thanks to an insanely-hot September by the Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets finished at 86-76 on the year and 11 games out of first in the NL East, while also coming up three-games short in the wildcard race. The Mets were 9-3 over their last 12 games last year and they are hoping to bring that momentum into this season. Mickey Callaway was fired last year and then the Mets brought in Carlos Beltran to take his place but he was let go after being involved in a sign-stealing scandal with the Houston Astros. Luis Rojas is now the new headman of the Mets.

The Rotation: The Mets have had a pretty strong rotation in the last few years and they were 11th in the league in ERA last year at 4.24. This year’s rotation could be one of the best in the league, especially one-through-four and especially if they can stay healthy, which has been a problem for this team over the years. Jacob deGrom is the best of the bunch and he has now won two Cy Young awards in a row. Last year he was just 11-8 but with a 2.43 ERA and that was enough to win the award. Getting run support has been an issue for him in the last two years. Noah Syndergaard had a down year as he went 10-8 with a 4.28 ERA on the year, but he is more than capable of a strong season. Their mid-season pickup last year was Marcus Stroman, who went 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA in 11 starts for the Mets. Steven Matz should fill the 4th slot after going 11-10 with a 4.21 ERA a year ago. He is capable of much more. Rick Porcello could be a nice pickup for the Mets. He went 14-12 last year but with a 5.52 ERA for the Red Sox. They are not great numbers but let’s dig deeper into Porcello. The year before he was 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA while going 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA the year before and 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA the year before that. The year before that he was 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA. What makes him interesting is that he is due for a strong season after a rather bad year as the trends above will show. The pen has been an issue for the Mets and he could struggle some this year. Edwin Diaz is the closer after posting 26 saves and a 5.59 ERA a season ago.

The Lineup: The offense for the Mets was just above average last year at 13th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.88 rpg while ranking 11th in homers with 242. The offense is led by Pete Alonso (1B), who won Rookie of the Year in 2019 after crushing 53 homers and driving in 120 runs. He is slated to bat 2nd and many are wondering what he will do for an encore. Leading off is expecting to be Jeff McNeil, who had 23 homers and 75 RBIs a season ago. Michael Conforto (OF) had his best year as a pro with 33 homers and 92 RBIs, while J.D. Davis (OF) had 22 homers and 57 RBIs, which was also his best year as a pro. Robinson Cano (2B) should hit 5th and while he is in the latter stages of his career, he is still capable of a solid season. He played in just 107 games last year and had 13 homers and 39 RBIs. The rest of the projected lineup consists of Wilson Ramos (C), Brandon Nimmo (OF) and Amed Rosario (SS). The Mets also have Yoenis Cespedes (OF) on the Bench and will surely see time in the starting lineup. The problem with Cespedes is that he missed all of last year and played in just 119 total games the previous two years. He is injury prone. The Mets have a very solid one-thru-five in the lineup, while the bottom three will struggle some. The Mets also need a bit better defense after finishing 19th in fielding percentage at .983.

Conclusion: Let me first state that the Mets and Phillies are pretty even overall but I went with the Phillies as I feel that Joe Girardi is the wildcard for them. The Mets have a solid one-through-five in their line and the Pitching staff looks like it will be very tough as always. The problem is that the Mets don’t have depth on their bench and the bullpen still does not look that good as well. The Mets are led by Pete Alonso, who should have another big year while the top three in their starting rotation could be the best in baseball. The Mets had some issues getting a coach this year and that along with their shortcomings on the bench and in the pen will have them land in the 4th spot in the East.

(5) Miami Marlins

World Series Odds: 500-1

NL Pennant Odds: 250-1

NL East Odds: 500-1

2019 Recap: Last year it was The Phillies, Mets, Nats, and Braves all posting .500 or better records and then there were the Miami Marlins who were just 57-105, which put them at 40 games out of first in the NL East. Miami has now won just 120 games the last two years total and they are hoping to start the climb back to respectability this year. It may not be all that easy as the rest of the division is very tough.

The Rotation: The Marlins were not a horrible team on the mound last year as they were 20th in the league with a 4.74 ERA. They have a few young arms that started to show promise. Sandy Alcantara is projected as their ace despite going just 6-14 a year ago. He was not given much in the way of run support and thus his mates wasted hist 3.88 ERA. Caleb Smith was 4-4 with a 3.50 ERA at the break last year but 6-7 with a 5.42 ERA after the break. If he can put together a full season like the first half, then he could have a good year. Pablo Lopez, struggled, going 5-8 with a 5.09 ERA, while Jordan Yamamoto was 4-5 with a 4.56 ERA in his first year a season ago. Elieser Hernandez rounds out their rotation after going 3-5 with a 5.03 ERA in 21 games (15 starts) last year. This is a young staff and they will only get better with more experience. The bullpen could be solid overall and Brandon Kintzler has been brought in to be the closer. He was with the Cubs last year and hasn’t been in the closer’s role since 2017 when he was with the Twins. He had 29 saves that year.

The Lineup: The offense has been the weakness of the Fish the last two years as they ranked 29th in the league in scoring last year at 3.80 rpg and 30th the year before at 3.66 rpg. Miami has also hit just 274 homers the last two years combined. In looking at this year’s lineup, it does not have a whole lot of pop in it. Leading off will be Jonathan Villar (3B), who had 24 homers and 73 RBIs for the Orioles last year. Brian Anderson (OF) had 20 homers and 66 RBIs last year but he did miss 36 games. Corey Dickerson (OF) was brought in after spending time with the Pirates and Phillies last year. He had 12 homers and 59 RBIs a season ago. Batting 4th will be Jesus Aguilar (1B), who hit 12 homers and drove in 50 runs for the Brewers and Rays combined last year. He did have 35 homers and 108 RBIs back in 2018 for the Brewers, so he is capable of a big season. Jorge Alfaro (C), Isan Diaz (2B), Miguel Rojas (SS), and Lewis Brinson (OF) round out the projected starting lineup. The Fish have upgraded the top of their lineup with the additions of Villar, Dickerson, and Aguilar and while they will hit more homers, while scoring more runs overall, the offense is still the weakness of this team.

Conclusion: Year three of the Miami rebuild is upon us and just like the last two years they will finish in the basement of the National League East. Miami is an improved team with a pitching staff that is young but has some very solid arms in it. I will look for them to have a better team ERA overall and they could have a solid closer with the addition of Brandon Kintzler, who had a 2.68 ERA in 63 games for the Cubs a year ago. The offense has been among the worst in the league the last two years and while it still will not be good, the Fish have upgraded it with the additions of Villar, Dickerson, and Aguilar. The top of this lineup looks very solid, but the bottom of the lineup will struggle. Miami will be improved this year but not nearly enough to make a run at the division title or even a playoff spot.