2020 National League West Season Preview

2020 National League West Season Preview

1)Los Angeles Dodgers:

World Series Odds: 3-1

NL Pennant Odds: 6-5

NL West Odds: 1/14

The Los Angeles Dodgers have become accustomed to lofty expectations. Those have skyrocketed even more heading into the 2020 MLB season. Los Angeles is coming off an excellent regular season, but a first-round exit in the playoffs left a bitter taste in its mouth. The Dodgers jumped out to a 2-1 series lead against Washington, but the Nationals won the final two games of the series to advance to the NLCS. The loss extended No. 1-seeded Los Angeles’ World Series title drought to 31 years. The Dodgers made some major moves in the offseason, though, snagging center fielder Mookie Betts from the Red Sox in a five-player trade. They also landed pitcher David Price as part of the deal. Betts was the 2017 AL MVP and Price was the 2012 AL Cy Young Award winner. Los Angeles also re-signed left fielder Chris Taylor and second baseman Max Muncy. The Dodgers have mounted expectations heading into this season, despite winning a franchise-record 106 games in the 2019 regular season. They are the clear favorite to win the NL West.

Rotation:

Clayton Kershaw might not be the best starting pitcher on the Dodgers’ staff, which speaks to the depth and talent that they have on the mound. Right-handed pitcher Walker Buehler started 30 games last season and notched a 14-4 record. He had a 3.26 ERA and led the team with 215 strikeouts. Kershaw still had an excellent season last year, starting 28 games and compiling a 16-5 record. He had a 3.03 ERA and struck out 189 batters. Price will likely be the third starter in the rotation, which will replace Hyun-Jin Ryu, who is with the Blue Jays. Price is coming off one of the worst seasons of his career, as he went 7-5 with a 4.28 ERA with Boston in 2019. He has had some brilliant years, though, including a 2.56 ERA with Tampa Bay in 2012 and a 2.45 ERA with Toronto and Detroit in 2015. Alex Wood signed a one-year, $4 million deal with Los Angeles in January. He was traded to the Cincinnati Reds by the Dodgers after the 2018 season, but is back with his old team in 2020 and is expected to be a starter. Julio Urias should round out the rotation. He went 4-3 and posted a 2.49 ERA in 37 games last season with the Dodgers, but only started eight games.

Kenley Jansen is one of the best closers in the league. However, he’s starting to fade in velocity with his cutter. He still managed 33 saves and a 3.71 ERA last season. For insurance, they brought in former Oakland closer Blake Treinen, who was an All-Star in 2018. He faded in 2019 with 16 saves, got injured and non-tendered.

Lineup:

Los Angeles might have the best lineup in the MLB this season. Betts is expected to play in right field and lead-off. First baseman Max Muncy will be looking to build on a 35-home run season in 2019 and will likely bat second once again. Third baseman Justin Turner hit .290 last season and was second on the team with 139 hits. Outfielder Cody Bellinger turned into an MVP candidate last year, hitting .305 and leading Los Angeles in runs, RBI and home runs. Center fielder A.J. Pollock and shortstop Corey Seager will round out the middle of the lineup. Catcher Will Smith and second baseman Gavin Lux will look to do damage at the bottom of the lineup.

Conclusion:

The Dodgers are -1400 to win the NL West for a reason. They might get some outside competition from Arizona or Colorado, but this should be a comfortable divisional title for them once again. The biggest thing to watch will be how Los Angeles does in the postseason. The Dodgers are currently a +300 ‘chalk’ to win the 2020 World Series, but New York (+350) and Houston (+800) both post sizeable threats. Simply put, the Dodgers’ rotation is going to be tough for any team to handle and their lineup will make them a threat even when the pitching has an off day. I see Los Angeles easily winning the NL West in 2020.

2)Arizona Diamondbacks:

World Series Odds: 60-1

NL Pennant Odds: 30-1

NL West Odds: 10-1

The Arizona Diamondbacks will look to make the postseason in 2020 after falling just short last season. They finished 85-77, which put them four games out of the Wild Card spot. Arizona made a big move in the middle of the season in 2019, trading starting pitcher Zack Greinke to Houston after 23 starts. He was easily the best pitcher on the staff, going 10-4 with a 2.90 ERA. The Diamondbacks made a move to replace Greinke in the offseason, adding veteran starter Madison Bumgarner to headline the rotation. They also added center fielder Starling Marte—a two-time Gold Glove Award winner. He had previously spent all eight years of his career with the Pittsburgh Pirates, earning an All-Star appearance in 2016. Vegas is giving Arizona the second-best shot in the NL West, albeit at 10/1 odds behind Los Angeles.

Rotation:

Bumgarner, a lefty, is projected to be the ace on the Arizona pitching staff in 2020. He had spent all 11 years of his career in San Francisco, winning three World Series titles. He also won the Silver Slugger Award in 2014 and 2015 and has been named an All-Star on four occasions. Bumgarner has the most strikeouts in San Francisco history by a left-handed pitcher. He was the NLCS MVP and World Series MVP in 2014. The veteran started 34 games last season, going 9-9 with a 3.90 ERA. Left-handed pitcher Robbie Ray is the top returning starter in the Diamondbacks’ rotation. He went 12-8 with a 4.34 ERA in 33 starts last season. Ray struck out a team-high 235 batters over 174.1 innings. Right-handed pitcher Luke Weaver started just 12 games last season, but had a lot of success. He went 4-3 and notched a 2.94 ERA, allowing just six home runs. Weaver is expected to be a crucial part of the 2020 rotation. Zac Gallen, a 23-year-old, went 2-3 in eight starts last year. He was also effective, totaling a 2.89 ERA in 42.3 innings. Gallen, along with veteran Mike Leake, are expected to round out the rotation.

Archie Bradley inherits the role of closer. He took over at the end of July and wound up with a 2.10 ERA and .585 OPS. But he’s pretty shaky due to a dip in velocity and a number of setup men could be in the mix, including Yoan Lopez, who throws 96, but pretty straight.

Lineup:

Second baseman Ketel Marte is coming off the best season of his career. Marte hit .329 and drove in 92 runs on a team-high 187 hits. He was second on the team in home runs with 32 long balls. Marte also stole the most bases on the squad, swiping 10 bags last season. Third baseman Eduardo Escobar is also coming off an impressive year, as he hit .269 and notched 171 hits. Escobar tallied a team-high 118 RBI and led the Diamondbacks in home runs with 35. The addition of Starling Marte makes the top of Arizona’s lineup fast and deadly. Marte is coming off a season in Pittsburgh where he hit .295 and recorded 159 hits in 132 games. He had 82 RBI and hit 23 home runs. Marte is one of the biggest stolen-base threats in the MLB, stealing 25 last season. Left fielder David Peralta is expected to bat clean-up. He hit .275 and drove in 57 runs in 2019. First baseman Christian Walker hit .259 and was third on the team in runs with 86 last season. He has the propensity to hit home runs, recording 29 a season ago. Outfielder Kole Calhoun signed with Arizona after spending eight years with the Angels. He did not have a great final season with Anaheim, hitting .232 with 162 strikeouts. Shortstop Nick Ahmed and catcher Carson Kelly will both be looking to bounce back from disappointing campaigns.

Conclusion:

I’m not sure the addition of Bumgarner is going to turn Arizona into a contender. In fact, I’m not entirely sure he’s an upgrade from Greinke. Starling Marte should add some pop and speed in the lineup, but the Diamondbacks just do not have the pieces to compete with Los Angeles for an entire season. They are listed at 10/1, which is probably a fair assessment. A Wild Card berth would be a job well done and a step in the right direction for Arizona. I have them finishing second in the division.

3)San Diego Padres:

World Series Odds: 60-1

NL Pennant Odds: 25-1

NL West Odds: 12-1

Fans are desperate for success in San Diego. The Padres have not had a winning season since 2010 and have not made the playoffs in 15 years. Their addition of Manny Machado did not turn things around last season, as they lost 92 games. San Diego did not make any major moves in the offseason. The Padres traded for starting pitcher Zach Davies, who had been with the Brewers since 2015. They also received Trent Grisham, while sending Luis Urias and Eric Lauer to Milwaukee. The biggest change to the lineup will be the addition of Tommy Pham, who was acquired from Tampa Bay in exchange for Hunter Renfroe, Xavier Edwards, and a player to be named later. San Diego is 12/1 to win the NL West in 2020, but will likely be trying to compete for a Wild Card spot.

Rotation:

The Padres do not have a strong pitching rotation. Chris Paddack will likely be the ace, as he compiled a 3.33 ERA in 26 starts last season. He struck out 153 batters, which was the second-most on the team. Dinelson Lamet only started 14 games in 2019, but he will be expected to play a bigger role this year. He had a 4.07 ERA and went 3-5 last season. Right-hander Garrett Richards signed a two-year deal with San Diego on Dec. 7, 2018, after spending the previous part of his career with the Angels. He did not appear in a game until the end of the 2019 season, going 0-1 with an 8.31 ERA in three starts. In 2019, Richards only pitched 8.2 total innings, allowing eight runs on 10 hits and six walks. The Padres will desperately need him to take a step forward this year. Davies will also play a crucial role in the rotation. He started 31 games with Milwaukee last season, going 10-7 with a 3.55 ERA. If he can match his numbers from 2019, he could very well be the Padres’ ace in 2020. Joey Lucchesi will probably round out the starting rotation. He went 10-10 with a 4.18 ERA in 30 starts for San Diego last year.

The bullpen will feature Kirby Yates as the closer. He had 41 saves in 44 chances last season and a 41.6% strikeout rate.

Lineup:

Youngster Fernando Tatis Jr. is the wild card of the team. The 20-year-old burst onto the scene in 2019, hitting .317 in 84 games. He had 106 hits, including 22 home runs. Tatis Jr. is expected to be a future star by many analysts and could be the catalyst for San Diego making some postseason noise this year. Pham will likely be batting second for the Padres. He debuted for St. Louis in 2014 and played there until 2018 when he went to Tampa Bay. Pham became the first Cardinals’ player since 1900 to record at least a .300 batting average, 20 home runs, 20 doubles, and 20 stolen bases in the same season in 2017. If he can replicate that success in 2020, he could play a big role. Superstar third baseman Manny Machado is coming off a disappointing season. He hit .256 and struck out 128 times with 32 homers. Machado is a four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove Award winner who will be looking to get back on track this season. First baseman Eric Hosmer and left fielder Wil Myers will be looking to do more damage in 2020 as well. Hosmer hit .265 last year, but Myers only notched a .239 average.

Conclusion:

San Diego has the talent to challenge Arizona for second place in the division—there is no doubt about that. However, last year’s struggles make it hard to predict that everything will come together, so a third-place finish is more likely. If the Padres can at least compete for second place in the NL West—that would provide a stepping stone for the 2021 season. Machado is going to have to play better and the pitching staff will need to be adequate.

4)Colorado Rockies:

World Series Odds: 300-1

NL Pennant Odds: 150-1

NL West Odds: 200-1

Colorado was the most disappointing team in the NL West last season. The Rockies had made the postseason in back-to-back years for the first time in franchise history, but they fell apart in 2019. A win in the final game of the season was the only thing that kept Colorado from finishing at the bottom of the division. July was a particularly rough month, as the team went 6-19, marking the worst full month in franchise history. August did not prove to be much better, as it went 9-19. The Rockies did not make many rash decisions following the disappointing campaign, as the front office expects things to turn around this year. They are listed as a 200/1 long shot to win the NL West.

Rotation:

The Rockies are one of the only teams in the MLB that is expected to return the same starting pitching rotation as last season. German Marquez led Colorado with a 12-5 record in 28 starts last season. He was shut down with some soreness to close the year, mainly due to Colorado’s non-existent playoff chances. Marquez is a strike-thrower, as he did have a 4.76 ERA, but numbers are always inflated for starting pitchers in Colorado. Jon Gray had the best season of any of the Rockies’ starters last year, going 11-8 with a 3.84 ERA. He did struggle to find the zone at times, walking 56 batters. Antonio Senzatela went 11-11 with a 6.71 ERA. He allowed a team-high 99 runs on 161 hits in 25 starts. Kyle Freeland went from being Colorado’s ace in 2018 to one of the worst pitchers in the MLB last season. He notched a 3-11 record with a 6.73 ERA. Freeland gave up 126 hits, including 25 home runs. Freeland had a 9.25 ERA in 10 starts at home, which was the complete opposite of his 2.40 ERA at Coors Field in 2018. The Rockies desperately need him to bounce back and find his 2018 form this season. Jeff Hoffman is expected to round out the rotation. He split time with Peter Lambert as the fifth starter in 2019. Hoffman went 2-6 with a 6.56 ERA in 15 starts. He allowed 51 runs on 77 hits, including 21 homers.

Closer Wade Davis had an awful season, posting an 8.65 ERA, which was the second-highest ERA by a reliever with a minimum of 50 appearances in MLB history. At the moment, he’ll share duties with Scott Oberg (.191 OBA in 32 innings at Coors Field), who had five saves and a 2.25 ERA last season.

Lineup:

The starting lineup remains largely unchanged as well. Right field Charlie Blackmon hit .314 last season, scoring a team-high 112 runs. Third baseman Nolan Arenado has been one of the best offensive players in the league over the last few years. He hit a career-high .315 and drove in a team-high 118 RBI in 2019. Arenado led the team with 41 home runs last season. He became the first National League player since Albert Pujols in 2010 to hit 40 or more home runs and strike out fewer than 100 times. Shortstop Trevor Story hit 35 home runs, making him the first player at that position to begin his career by hitting at least 20 long balls in four straight seasons. Strikeouts continue to be an issue for Story, though, as he struck out 174 times. Center fielder David Dahl and first baseman Daniel Murphy provide some more pop in the lineup.

Conclusion:

Colorado might have the most value to compete for the division crown of any team in the NL West. If the Rockies are somehow able to piece everything together after a disastrous year in 2019, they could certainly compete with Los Angeles. However, it’s tough to see that happening. Colorado will likely finish fourth in the division and will be forced to make some wholesale changes in the offseason.

5)San Francisco Giants:

World Series Odds: 500-1

NL Pennant Odds: 250-1

NL West Odds: 500-1

It’s the beginning of a new era in San Francisco. The Giants will be playing under a new manager this season, as Bruce Bochy retired following the 2019 campaign. He was the manager from 2007-2019, winning World Series titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Bochy was the longest-serving active manager in the MLB before retiring last season. The Giants replaced Bochy with Gabe Kapler, who was fired after two seasons in Philadelphia. Kapler went 80-82 with the Phillies in 2018, but his 81-81 mark in 2019 was not enough to keep him around. The Giants went 77-85 last year, which was good for third place in the NL West. They are going to be without veteran pitcher Madison Bumgarner, who is now with Arizona. San Francisco is the easy pick to finish last in the NL West and is 500/1 long shots to win the division.

Rotation:

Right-handed pitcher Johnny Cueto is expected to be the staff’s ace in 2020. He returned from Tommy John rehab last year, going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in four starts that spanned 16 innings. Cueto led the National League in strikeouts in 2014, but he has struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons. An injury-riddled veteran is never a great option as your ace, but Kapler is going to have to hope for the best. Jeff Samardzija was San Francisco’s second-best pitcher behind Bumgarner last year, going 11-12 with a 3.52 ERA in 32 starts. The 34-year-old appeared to have a lot left in the tank, but the Giants will find out soon enough. Kevin Gausman will also be a key part of the rotation. Gausman spent half of last season with Atlanta, where he went 3-7 with a 6.19 ERA. He finished the year with Cincinnati, posting a 0-2 record in 15 appearances. Gausman had a better ERA with the Reds at 4.03, but he only started one game. Tyler Beede will also be part of the Giants’ rotation in 2020. He went 5-10 with a 5.08 ERA in 22 starts for San Francisco last season. He was dealing with injuries during spring training but should be back when the season begins. Drew Smyly signed a one-year deal with the Giants in January, which could put him in line to start some games this season. He went 3-2 with a 4.45 ERA with the Phillies last year. San Francisco also lost closer Will Smith during free agency. Smith was 48-of-55 in save chances and was the lone All-Star on the team last season.

Lineup:

The lineup is headlined by veteran catcher Buster Posey. He led one of the league’s worst offenses with a .257 batting average in 2019. Posey has lost all of his power, only hitting seven home runs in 445 plate appearances. Left fielder Mike Yastrzemski might have been the bright spot last season, hitting .272 with 21 home runs and 55 RBI. The 28-year-old rookie became the first Giants’ rookie to hit 20 home runs in a season since Dave Kingman in 1972. He is the grandson of Hall of Famer Carl Yastrzemski. First baseman Brandon Belt and third baseman Evan Longoria will be looking for better outputs in 2020, as they both struggled last season. Belt hit just .234 and struck out a team-high 127 times. Shortstop Brandon Crawford also had one of the worst years of his career, batting .228 and striking out 117 times. He only hit 11 home runs. Alex Dickerson will likely start this season after hitting .290 last year.

Conclusion:

It’s going to be a tough season in San Francisco. The Giants are not only playing under a first-year manager, but they also have an old lineup that is unable to produce like it used to. It’s tough to see them laying down against anyone, but they simply do not have the talent to compete in this division. Fifth place in the NL West is a strong likelihood for San Francisco this season.