2022 MLB Betting Playoff Picture
We are down to the final ten days of the Major League Baseball regular season and there are only a few things left to sort out before October baseball is in full effect. Let’s take a deep dive into the standing as we close in on the playoffs, set to begin on Friday, October 7th.
American League
Playoff Seeding
#1 Seed: Houston Astros 101-53 (+175) - The Astros have clinched the division and are on the verge of locking up the #1 seed. Bank on it. The Astros will have home-field throughout the playoffs.
#2 Seed: New York Yankees 94-58 (+200) - The Yankees ride a 7-game winning streak into the final ten days and are a shoo-in for the division title and #2 seed in the AL playoffs. The health of their everyday lineup will certainly benefit from having the first-round bye.
#3 Seed: Cleveland Guardians 86-67 (+1100) - The Guardians were certainly not anyone’s favorite to win the division but they are your AL Central Division champs. Excellent starting pitching, Jose Ramirez and the calming influence of manager Terry Francona certainly helped the cause. Clinching early will help Cleveland set up their rotation for the first round.
Wildcards: Toronto 86-67 (+600), Tampa Bay 84-69 (+1000) and Seattle 83-69 (+1000) - The Blue Jays are in the driver’s seat for the #4 seed with a two-game lead in the loss column over both the Rays and Mariners. Toronto also has six out of their last nine games at home. The Rays finish with nine road games, six with Cleveland and Houston who have both clinched and three at Fenway against Boston. Lastly, the Mariners close out with a ten-game home stand against the likes of Texas, Oakland and finally Detroit. Based on that, I think we are looking at #4 Toronto, #5 Seattle and #6 Tampa Bay for the final seedings.
National League
Playoff Seeding
#1 Seed: LA Dodgers 106-47 (+165) - LA is now just counting down the days until the second round of the playoffs. They have made some news in demoting closer Craig Kimbral from his role and making it a closer-by-committee job. A committee, incidentally, that Kimbral doesn’t appear to be a part of.
#2 Seed: New York Mets 97-57 (+255) - This one will come down to the wire. The Mets have a one-game lead in the loss column over Atlanta and have a weekend set in Atlanta upcoming that should decide the division.
#3 Seed: St. Louis Cardinals 89-65 (+950) - The Cardinals have scuffled a bit as of late, despite Albert Pujols’ 700-home run excitement, but make no mistake about it, the division race is over. The Cards are locked in as the #3 seed.
Wildcards: Atlanta (+425), San Diego (+1200) and Philadelphia (+1600) - The Braves or Mets will be the #4 seed depending on how the NL East shakes out. Philadelphia is a game behind the Padres and now just a game and a half in front of Milwaukee (+3500) for the final wildcard spots. The Phillies close with 10-straight road games but they do feature the Cubs for three, the lowly Nationals for four and finally three against a Houston team that will have clinched everything at that point. The Brewers finish with nine home games to end the season. Two with the Cards followed by four with Miami and three with Arizona. Anything less than an 8-1 finish probably won’t get it done. The Padres finish with nine at home as well. Anything short of a disastrous losing streak and the Padres will be back in the playoffs.
*Current Odds to win the league are in parenthesis, courtesy of draftkings.com
Heading to the betting window…
American League
The numbers keep on shifting as the playoffs draw near. The Yankees have dropped down to +200 to win the AL thanks to a seven-game winning streak. The Astros have stayed steady at +175 while the other big movers are the Rays and Mariners that have jumped up to +1000 to win the AL.
Safe bet: Astros at +175. The defending American League champs are healthy with depth in the rotation including starters that could prove to be invaluable out of the bullpen in a playoff series. The stint on the IL should do wonders for Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez is a legitimate ace as well. This will be a tough team to dethrone.
Sucker’s bet: Yankees at +200. Don’t believe the hype. This has been an average baseball team since the all-star break with an average rotation. The Yankees lineup, once among the most feared in the game this season, is wrote with bench players as injuries have taken their toll on the Bombers. Teams will work around Judge and take their chances with Josh Donaldson, Giancarlo Stanton and the like. This team looks like a second-round casualty to me.
Sneaky bet: Toronto Blue Jays at +600). The Blue Jays have the lineup to match with any team in the playoff field. They also have as good of a closer as anyone left as well. The key for the Jays will be the starting pitching and finding the right combination of pitchers to get to Jordan Romano at the back end of the bullpen. Manager John Schneider has done wonders with the pen since taking over. It will be interesting to watch him work in a playoff series.
National League
The Dodgers remain the prohibitive favorite at +165 and the Mets and Braves are still strong plays. What to make of the lower-tiered teams: the Cardinals, Padres and Phillies?
Safe bet: Dodgers at +165. The Dodgers look to get back to the World Series after being up-ended in 2021. A great lineup and a solid but not spectacular rotation have pushed them towards 110 wins this season. There remain some lingering doubts about that bullpen though.
Sucker’s bet: Cardinals at +950. While the trades for starters Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana have certainly propelled St.Louis to the division title, the team lacks a true ace. The rotation is loaded with quality starters but not anyone that will likely be favored in any one-game matchup. The Cards have been a feel-good story this season with Molina and Wainwright’s record-setting battery records and the incredible run of Pujols but they will be gone after the first round.
Sneaky bet: Atlanta Braves at +425. Hard to believe the defending World Series champs can be considered a sneaky play but +425 is a solid number for a team with a good rotation, an excellent bullpen and perhaps the best lineup in the National League. If the Braves overtake the Mets this week, the line will drop. Get in on this action while the number is favorable.
