A Look At The Newly Released NFL Win Totals

The NFL Draft is a week away and the start of the regular season is still a few months away but it is never too early to talk about win totals in the sport. Let’s just hope that the NFL season gets played to it’s fullest. The first NFL player to contract Covid-19 was just announced overnight. That player is Brian Allen of the Los Angeles Rams and now we are getting reports that Von Miller (Denver) has tested positive as well. The one thing that we may have to get prepared for is an NFL season with no fans in the stands. I have seen reports that NFL teams may just pack half of their stadiums and others where we may see no fans at all. That will be weird, but at least we will have sports. Maybe the stadiums will pump in some crowd noise to make it more realistic. LOL We shall see.

Ok, onto what we are here for and that is the NFL Win Totals that have recently been released by Ceasars Palace.

Baltimore Ravens: 12

Kansas City Chiefs: 12

New Orleans Saints: 10.5

San Francisco 49ers: 10.5

Dallas Cowboys: 9.5

Philadelphia Eagles: 9.5

Seattle Seahawks: 9.5

Buffalo Bills: 9

Pittsburgh Steelers: 9

Minnesota Vikings: 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9

New England Patriots: 8.5

Cleveland Browns: 8.5

Indianapolis Colts: 8.5

Tennessee Titans: 8.5

Los Angeles Chargers: 8.5

Chicago Bears: 8.5

Green Bay Packers: 8.5

Los Angeles Rams: 8.5

Houston Texans: 7.5

Denver Broncos: 7.5

Atlanta Falcons: 7.5

Arizona Cardinals: 7.5

Las Vegas Raiders: 7

New York Jets: 6.5

Detroit Lions: 6.5

Miami Dolphins: 6

New York Giants: 5.5

Carolina Panthers: 5.5

Cincinnati Bengals: 5

Jacksonville Jaguars: 4.5

Washington Redskins: 4.5

In looking over the numbers above, there are two that stand out to me. They are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 9 and the New England Patriots at 8.5. When was the last time we saw the Buccaneers have a higher win total than the Patriots? I can’t remember. Can you? Next question. When was the last time the Patriots had a win total of less than nine? I can’t remember that either. Since 2001, the Patriots have not won less than nine games in a season and they have notched double-digit wins in 17 of those 18 seasons. We all know that this is the Tom Brady effect but I will point out that back in 2008, Brady was injured very early in the season, which put Matt Cassel in the QB spot for the final 15 games of that season and they still went 11-5. Granted, that was the only year in their past 18 years that the Pats missed the postseason, but still, they tallied 11 wins on the season. New England may have lost Tom Brady but they still have Bill Belichick and he will have a QB under center than can get them to at least nine wins. I feel the 8.5 is too low.

Now let’s look at the other side of this equation. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been one of the worst teams over the past nine years. Posting just one winning season over that stretch while failing to make the playoffs in each of their last 12 years. The Bucs have had more than nine wins just once in their last 12 years and now they have a win total of nine. I know Brady is good and he has something to prove in trying to show that he can take his new team to the postseason but still, he will be 43 years of age when the season starts and he will not have the play callers that he had at New England. The Bucs were tops in the league in passing last year and Jameis Winston had 1000 more yards passing than Brady did but still it’s the INTs that are key here. Winston threw 30 of them last year while Brady threw just eight. We also note that Tampa had to play from behind a ton and so they were forced to throw more. Tampa Bay will be an improved team but I do not see them hitting double digits in wins. I actually expect them to land right on the number of nine.

Let’s take a gander at some other win totals for this year. The Bills are an interesting team to look at this year. They are projected to win nine games and they should do at least that, but can they win 10? Can the Bills rip away the stranglehold that the Pats have had on the AFC East for the past million years? I think they can. Buffalo has an improving QB, a solid running game and one of the better defenses in the league. Those are all good ingredients for a strong season.

The 49ers are set at 10.5 and I feel they can go over that win total. San Fran had 13 wins last year and they have the majority of their core players back this year. The Niners also have two first-round picks in the draft. The division has gotten a bit tougher but still, San Fran is built for the long haul and I do not see any way that they post fewer than 11 wins this year. In the NFC East, it will be a two-team race between the Eagles and Cowboys and both have been set at 9.5 wins. I see both teams hitting 10 wins this year. Both teams will have very good offenses this year and they also sport improved defenses, plus they get to face the Giants and Redskins twice each.

A couple of teams that I feel the win total is too high are the New York Jets (6.5) and the Carolina Panthers (5.5). Both teams will finish last in their division and I just don’t see more than four wins for either squad. New York still has one of the worst offenses in the league. Sam Darnold has a good upside, but he has very few weapons around him, especially now that WR Robby Anderson is no longer on the team. The offense will not do nearly enough to get them to seven wins this year. The Panthers will have a similar problem as they will probably have no Cam Newton and TE Greg Olson, plus their defense took a huge hit with the retirement of Luke Kuechley. They still have RB Christian McCaffery and WR DJ Moore, but there are too many holes on both sides of the ball to think that the Panthers can get to six wins.

The Los Angeles Chargers are another team to look at. Can they get to nine wins without Philip Rivers running the show? I honestly don’t think so and that is coming from a huge Chargers fan. LA will have a good defense but the offense will struggle some. Tyrod Taylor is not the answer for this team and the running game has had its struggled of late. We also not that the Chiefs will be dominant and the Raiders, plus the Broncos are both much improved. LA should finish at 7-9 or possibly 8-8, but no better.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have a win total of 4.5 and they will be very hard-pressed to exceed that number. Jacksonville has already let Nick Foles go and that means the reigns of the team are in the hands of Gardner Minshew. He showed some flashes of brilliance last year and could have a better season this year but there is very little talent around him on offense. The defense was not good, especially against the run and the schedule will not be easy, especially in a division that includes Houston. Tennessee and the new look Indianapolis Colts, who have Philip Rivers at the helm. The Jags ate one of the worst teams in the league.

Let’s take a look at one more team and that is the Washington Redkins. The Skins were one of the worst teams in the league last year but I see them bouncing back this year and topping the 4.5 win total that has been posted for them. The Redskins had their issues at the QB spot last year but I feel that with a bit more experience he should have a better showing this year. He also should get help from a running game that will be healthier with the return of Darrius Guice. The defense struggled but with a better offensive showing that should correct itself. Washington Should be good for about six wins this year.

Here are my Top 3 Over plays: Washington Over 4.5, Philadelphia Over 9.5, and San Francisco Over 10.5.

Here are my Top 3 Under plays: Carolina Under 5.5, NY Jets Under 6.5, and Jacksonville Under 4.5.