Atlanta Dream vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction, Preview and Odds - 7/9/21
A pair of Eastern Conference rivals at opposite ends of the standings take the floor in WNBA action from the Nutmeg State. The Atlanta Dream are on the road as they make the trip to face the Connecticut Sun Friday night. Atlanta was clobbered 118-95 on the road by Las Vegas in their previous contest Sunday. Connecticut was stunned as they fell 73-67 on the road to Indiana in the second game of a two-game set Saturday. In the first meeting between the teams this season, it was the Sun picking up a 78-67 road victory on May 14. That gave Connecticut five victories in the last seven matchups between the teams.
Atlanta Dream Hoping to Get On Track
Atlanta dropped their second straight and fifth in the last six games as they were routed by Las Vegas on the road in their previous contest. The Dream entered Thursday 10th in the WNBA playoff picture, 1.5 games behind the Wings for the final spot in the postseason field. Atlanta led by two after the opening quarter and was within three at the half before things started to unravel. The Dream gave up a 14-5 run to start the second half, putting them down 65-53 with 6:55 to play in the third quarter, and never got closer than eight the rest of the way. Atlanta shot 46.9% from the field, including seven of 19 from three-point range, and allowed the Aces to shoot a blistering 59.7% from the floor. Courtney Williams paced the Dream with 19 points and five assists in the loss.
The Dream is 4th in the league in scoring offense coming into this contest as they average 84.2 points a game this season. Atlanta is 11th in the league in rebounding (33.4 boards a night) and stands 7th in assists with an average of 18.6 per game. The Dream are 12th in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 89.1 points a contest this season. Tiffany Hayes is one of four players for the Dream scoring in double figures as she puts up 17.6 points a night. Chennedy Carter contributes 14.2 points plus 3.3 assists per contest. Odyssey Sims, Crystal Bradford, Tianna Hawkins, Elizabeth Williams, Monique Billings, Courtney Williams (17.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.1 assists), Aari McDonald, Cheyenne Parker (10.2 points, 4.4 boards) and Shekinna Strickland are other key rotation pieces for coach Mike Petersen. The Dream are 8th in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.8% from the floor as a team. Atlanta stands seventh in threes per game (7.1) and 6th in three-point percentage as they hit 34.4% of their long-range attempts. The Dream is 12th in the league in free throw percentage as they shoot 74.3% from the stripe as a team this year. Hayes is out four to six weeks with a Grade 2 tear in her MCL that she sustained June 17 against Washington. Carter is suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team during the game against the Aces July 4.
Connecticut Sun Trying to Regroup
Connecticut saw their four-game win streak snapped as they were beaten by an Indiana team that doubled their season win total with the victory Saturday. The Sun fell to 12-6 on the season and sat third in the WNBA playoff picture, 2.5 games behind the Storm for the top spot in the standings. Connecticut led by two after the opening quarter and by one at the half before things unraveled in the third quarter. The Sun trailed by one midway through the third quarter before giving up a 9-2 run to trail 48-40 with 2:27 to play in the third. Connecticut regrouped to tie the game at 55 only to fall behind 67-61 with 1:16 remaining. The Sun got within two in the final minute but couldn’t complete the comeback. Connecticut shot 35.8% from the field, including four of 17 from three-point range, and were edged 39-37 on the glass. Jonquel Jones finished with 16 points and nine rebounds in the loss to lead the Sun.
The Sun is 10th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 79.6 points per game so far this season. Connecticut is second in the league in rebounding (36.9 boards a night) while they stand 10th by dishing out 17.8 assists a game on the year. The Sun have been good defensively as they are first in scoring defense by allowing an average of 74.5 points per game. DeWanna Bonner is second on the Sun with 15.8 points, 7.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists a game. Jonquel Jones (team-high 21.1 points, 10.2 rebounds), Natisha Hiedeman (8.5 points) and Brionna Jones (15.4 points, 6.8 rebounds) each are valuable contributors. Jasmine Thomas (11.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 3.9 assists), Briann January, Beatrice Mompreier, Stephanie Jones, DiJonai Carrington and Kaila Charles are important pieces for coach Curt Miller. Connecticut is fourth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.7% as a team. The Sun are sixth in three-pointers per game (7.2) and fifth in three-point percentage (35.8%) on the year. Connecticut has been mediocre at the charity stripe as they convert on 80% of their attempts, which is 7th in the league. Alyssa Thomas is questionable as she recovers from offseason surgery for a torn Achilles.
Pick: Connecticut Sun
We’ve already seen the Sun beat the Dream earlier this season and that was when Hayes and Carter were on the floor. With those two missing, Atlanta isn’t nearly the same team on the offensive end of the floor and it will be challenging to get things done. The Dream has to contend with a Sun team that not only leads the league in scoring defense but who is going to have a chip on their shoulder after becoming just the second victim of the Fever this season. Connecticut is 7-1 at home on the year and has a +8.1 ppg scoring margin in those contests. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 3-5 on the road and holds a -4.6 ppg scoring margin as the visiting team. With the Sun pretty much at full strength, they should shut down the shorthanded Dream and get the win.
Total: Over
Connecticut has seen the over hit in four of their last seven games coming into this game. The Sun have ramped up their offense of late with the return of Jonquel Jones and facing the league’s worst scoring defense in the Dream definitely can help any team that has had issues. Connecticut has seen the over hit in seven of their 18 games but they had exceeded the mark in just three of their first 11 games. Atlanta has seen the over hit in 11 of their 17 games on the season, including six of their last seven contests. We just saw the Dream surrender 118 points to the Aces, who set a franchise record in the process. Connecticut won’t get that many points but they do enough to push this one over the mark.
