Atlanta Dream vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction, Preview and Odds - 7/4/21
It’s an interconference matchup on the WNBA hardwood in the Silver State. The Atlanta Dream are on the road as they make the trip to face the Las Vegas Aces Sunday evening. Atlanta was in action Friday night on the road against Seattle, falling 91-88. Las Vegas closed out a two-game set on the road against Los Angeles Friday night, earning a 66-58 win to sweep the series. Last season, the Aces took both meetings in the bubble, including an 89-79 win as the “road” team on September 5, 2020. That gave Las Vegas four wins in the last five meetings between the teams.
Atlanta Dream Trying to Move Up in Standings
Atlanta gave Seattle all they could handle but ended up falling just short for their fourth loss in the last five games and their eighth loss in their last 10. The Dream fell to 6-10 on the season and entered Saturday 11th in the WNBA playoff picture, 1.5 games behind the Mercury for the final playoff spot. Atlanta led by one after the opening quarter, trailed by as many as seven in the second quarter and by three at the half. The Dream trailed by as many as 10 late in the third quarter and by six after three quarters. Atlanta got within one on a few occasions in the fourth quarter but couldn’t quite get over the hump as Seattle held them off. The Dream shot 47.4% from the field, including eight of 20 from three-point range, but allowed the Storm to hit 14 of 22 from beyond the arc. Courtney Williams finished with 20 points, eight rebounds and seven assists in the loss to lead Atlanta.
The Dream is 4th in the league in scoring offense coming into this contest as they average 83.5 points a game this season. Atlanta is 11th in the league in rebounding (33.7 boards a night) and stands 10th in assists with an average of 18.3 per game. The Dream are 11th in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 87.3 points a contest this season. Tiffany Hayes is one of three players for the Dream scoring in double figures as she puts up 17.6 points a night. Chennedy Carter contributes 15.4 points plus 3.4 assists per contest. Odyssey Sims, Crystal Bradford, Tianna Hawkins, Elizabeth Williams, Monique Billings, Courtney Williams (17.3 points, 6.8 rebounds, four assists), Aari McDonald, Cheyenne Parker and Shekinna Strickland are other key rotation pieces for coach Nicki Collen. The Dream are 9th in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.5% from the floor as a team. Atlanta stands seventh in threes per game (7.1) and 6th in three-point percentage as they hit 34.2% of their long-range attempts. The Dream is 11th in the league in free throw percentage as they shoot 74.3% from the stripe as a team this year. Hayes is out four to six weeks with a Grade 2 tear in her MCL that she sustained June 17 against Washington.
Las Vegas Aces Battling for Top Spot in WNBA
Las Vegas had one of their worst offensive showings of the season but still managed to sweep the Sparks on the road in a two-game set for their third straight win and their eighth in the last nine games. The Aces improved to 13-4 on the season and own the top spot in the WNBA playoff picture over the Storm based on head-to-head victories. Las Vegas led by four after one quarter, by eight at the half and by 12 midway through the third quarter only to see the Sparks charge back. The Aces trailed by two with 4:43 to play before closing the game on a 12-2 run to earn the victory. Las Vegas shot only 37.7% from the floor, including two of 11 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 34-33. A’ja Wilson led the Aces with 20 points and 10 rebounds in the victory.
The Aces come into this contest at the top of the pack in scoring offense, ranking first with 90.2 points per game. Las Vegas is 1st in the league in rebounding (38.5 boards a game) and stand second in the league in assists by handing out 20.5 dimes per contest. The Aces have been average on the defensive end of the floor as they are 5th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 79.3 points a game. A’ja Wilson leads the Aces with 19.3 points, 8.8 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Liz Cambage (14.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.8 blocks), Jackie Young (12.6 points, 4.1 rebounds) and Kelsey Plum (12.4 points) are all solid secondary options on the offensive end. Coach Bill Laimbeer also can call on Chelsea Gray (11.8 points, 6.4 assists), Dearica Hamby (11 points, 6.3 boards), Riquna Williams (9.1 points), Ji-Su Park, Emma Cannon and Destiny Slocum to contribute on both ends of the floor. Las Vegas is first in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 46.5% from the field as a team this season. The Aces are 11th in the league in threes per game (five) and fourth in three-point shooting at 35.9% on the year. Las Vegas is currently fourth in free throw shooting at 83.7% on the season.
Pick: Las Vegas Aces
We’ve seen Las Vegas beat the best that the league has to offer this season. The Aces have dropped the Storm twice in three meetings on the year. Las Vegas decimated Los Angeles in their matchups as well and they’ve clipped New York twice. The Aces simply don’t get slowed down much on the offensive end of the floor and the Dream isn’t the team to pull that feat off. Atlanta is awful on the defensive end of the floor and they have had problems at times offensively without Hayes. The Dream have been okay on the road but the Aces have outscored their opponents by an average of 17.4 points per game in their eight home contests. That’s enough to tip the pendulum toward Las Vegas as they stay hot.
Total: Over
Unless you’re the Connecticut Sun or the Sparks Friday night, you haven’t had much in the way of success when it comes to slowing down the Aces this season. The Aces had scored at least 83 points in every game before Friday night that didn’t involve Connecticut this season. Las Vegas has gone over the century mark four times and have scored at least 90 points in 10 of their 17 games this season. When it comes to facing Atlanta, who have been porous on the defensive end, you have to think that Bill Laimbeer’s group is foaming at the mouth looking for easy buckets. Atlanta has seen the over go 10-6 in their 16 games on the year while Las Vegas has seen the over go 11-6 in their 17 games. With the Aces torching scoreboards and the Dream leaking on the defensive end, this one goes over the total.
