Atlanta Dream vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Preview and Odds - 8/15/21
It’s an interconference battle on the hardwood as the second half of the WNBA season gets underway with a tilt in the Valley of the Sun. The Atlanta Dream is on the road as they make the trip to face the Phoenix Mercury Sunday evening. Atlanta fell 79-68 at home to Indiana in their final game before the Olympic break back on July 11. Phoenix split a home-and-home series with the league-leading Storm as they were defeated 82-75 on the road in their final game before the break July 11. The Mercury have claimed the last six meetings, including a 96-80 win as the “home” team in the bubble in the most recent matchup on August 14, 2020.
Atlanta Dream Hoping to Right a Sinking Ship
Atlanta dropped four straight and seven of their last eight heading into the break as they were dumped at home by Indiana in their most recent contest. The Dream enter the second half tied for 10th in the WNBA standings, 2.5 games behind the Mystics for the eighth and final playoff spot. Atlanta led Indiana by four after the opening quarter only to trail by two at the half. The Dream was within three with 1:46 to play in the third quarter before giving up a 14-0 run as they were scoreless for an 8:31 stretch spanning the third and fourth quarters. Atlanta drew no closer than nine after that as they went down in defeat. The Dream shot 35.5% from the field, including one of 13 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 49-30. Odyssey Sims led Atlanta with 20 points in the loss.
The Dream is 5th in the league in scoring offense coming into this contest as they average 82.7 points a game this season. Atlanta is 11th in the league in rebounding (32.9 boards a night) and stands 8th in assists with an average of 18.3 per game. The Dream are 12th in the league in scoring defense as they allow an average of 88.3 points a contest this season. Tiffany Hayes is one of four players for the Dream scoring in double figures as she puts up 17.6 points a night. Chennedy Carter contributes 14.2 points plus 3.3 assists per contest. Odyssey Sims, Crystal Bradford, Tianna Hawkins, Elizabeth Williams, Monique Billings, Courtney Williams (16.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, 4.1 assists), Aari McDonald, Cheyenne Parker (10.2 points, 4.5 boards), Candice Dupree and Shekinna Strickland are other key rotation pieces for coach Darius Taylor. The Dream are 9th in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.2% from the floor as a team. Atlanta stands tied for eighth in threes per game (6.8) and 9th in three-point percentage as they hit 33.3% of their long-range attempts. The Dream is 12th in the league in free throw percentage as they shoot 73.5% from the stripe as a team this year. Carter is suspended indefinitely for conduct detrimental to the team during the game against the Aces July 4. Parker is out for the year as she announced she was pregnant last month.
Phoenix Mercury Looking to Make a Move
Phoenix split a home-and-home set with league-leading Seattle heading into the break and hope to start the second half with a win as they try to make a move in the standings. The Mercury enter this game seventh in the WNBA standings, one game ahead of ninth-place Dallas to remain in the playoff picture. Against Seattle, Phoenix led by as many as seven in the first quarter and held a four-point lead late in the stanza before giving up a 13-0 run spanning the first and second quarters to trail 32-23. Phoenix got no closer than three the rest of the way as Seattle held them at bay. The Mercury shot 40.3% from the field, including nine of 23 from three-point range, and allowed Seattle to shoot 48.4% in the game. Kia Nurse led Phoenix with 28 points, six rebounds and five assists in the loss.
The Mercury are 8th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 79.8 points per game. Phoenix is sixth in rebounding (35.7 rebounds) per contest and stand seventh in the league by handing out 18.6 assists a night. The Mercury are seventh in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 81.5 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is second on the Mercury in scoring with 19.1 points plus 5.2 assists a night. Brittney Griner (20.5 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.6 points, four assists) and Brianna Turner (7.2 points, 8.6 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (9.7 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Alanna Smith are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is seventh in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.7% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is 10th in three-pointers per game (6.7 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (31.1%) this season. Phoenix is 8th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 79.7% of their chances on the year.
Pick: Phoenix Mercury
Atlanta is expected to have Hayes back in the mix for the first time in nearly two months but the fact that the Dream is on their third coach of the season shows a lack of cohesion. Throw in Parker being done for the year and Carter serving an indefinite suspension and you’re looking at a thinned-out Atlanta rotation. The Mercury split a home-and-home set with the Storm right before the break and they’re healthy now. Taurasi looks recovered from the sternum issue that cost her most of the season as she was a key contributor to the United States winning the gold medal in women’s basketball in Tokyo. Atlanta has fallen apart and there’s no reason to project a turnaround here.
Total: Over
Phoenix has had their issues offensively this season but they get a crack at the league’s worst scoring defense here. In addition, the Dream are last in field goal percentage defense (47.4%) and in three-point field goal percentage defense (41%) on the year. Atlanta has seen the over hit in 11 of their 19 games this season, partially due to their defensive issues. The under has hit in seven of their last 10 meetings though the most recent meeting did go over the mark. Phoenix will stretch Atlanta’s defense out and that will lead to a big offensive night, pushing this one past the total thanks to another brutal Dream defensive showing.
