Betting on Olympic Basketball
Betting on Olympic Basketball
The NBA is prevalent in the Olympics in Paris, but not just on the U.S. team. In the France/Japan game, which went to overtime, Victor Wembanyama led the French with 18 points, 11 rebounds and six assists. Japan’s best payer was Rui Hachimura, the former Lakers and Wizards forward, who had 24 points before getting ejected early in the fourth quarter on his second unsportsmanlike foul of the game.
On Wednesday, the USA is a 29-point favorite (Draft Kings) over South Sudan. While the U.S. should win handily, South Sudan could provide a tough test. South Sudan already beat Puerto Rico 90-79 in Group C play. Last Saturday in exhibition play in London, the U.S. needed a LeBron James layup with eight seconds left to beat South Sudan 101-100. South Sudan does have a former NBA player in Luol Deng and a current player in center Wayne Gabriel.
Kevin Durant did not play in that game and Joel Embiid was ineffective. Is that worth laying 29 points? I wouldn’t lay it, but take the points in that one.
In the other Group C game on Wednesday, you have Serbia as a 17-point favorite against Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has a nice squad led by Jose Alvarado from New Orleans. But Serbia, who was smashed by the U.S., 110-84. Nikola Jokic had 20 points, eight assists and just five rebounds with four steals, but didn’t get much help. If the Serbs shoot 9-of-37 from three-point range (24.3%) again, Puerto Rico not only has a chance to cover, but steal that game.
On Friday, Australia is a 4.5-point favorite over Greece and Canada is a 9-point favorite over Spain. Spain is usually good in international play, but they don’t have a lot of NBA rotation players. Santi Aldama is a young player on his way up and Rudy Fernandez has been around awhile. But Canada has nearly as much talent as the U.S. They have the best guards led by Jamal Murray, R.J. Barrett, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Dillon Brooks and Andrew Nembhard. The problem is up front where Dwight Powell, Kelly Olynyk and Khem Birch are ordinary. They should, however, cover that game against Spain.
The Aussies are a scary team because they have big guys like Jock Landale, who will just try and push people around. Josh Giddey, Patty Mills, Matthew Dellavedova, Josh Green and Danta Exum are good players who can make things interesting if they meet the U.S. (maybe). They play Greece, who is led by Giannis Antetokounmpo, but he does not have much help. As great as the Greek Freak is, I would lay the points there.
The only team, other than Canada, that could give the U.S. a run (or cover) is France, who struggled to beat Japan. They have Rudy Gobert protecting the paint, Nicolas Batum, Frank Ntikiltina and Evan Fournier in the backcourt. Don’t forget Wembanyama protecting the rim and he could give the U.S. big fits.
If you are looking at player props, Kevin Durant is the favorite to score the most points for Team USA (+130). If you are looking for a real longshot, Devin Booker (+2500) and Anthony Edwards (+1400) could be nice values.
