Written by Chris Giordani
Welcome to the Gamers Without Borders 2020 tournament playoffs, where the single-elimination format among six star-studded contenders is sure to add an element of upset at some point and turn.
The early matchup between G2 and FaZe Clan features some potent namesake offered from both squads, with G2’s power coming by huNter-, kennyS, and nexa; FaZE touting the one-man army NiKo, backed by coldzera and broky most notably thereafter.
By the powers that be, we’re thankfully treated to a best-of-three between these powerhouses, and all the more potential data to break down before locking in wagers. G2 comes into this match a slight favorite by the bookmakers (-130 per Bovada), and most likely due to the outcome at the ESL: Road To Rio.
With a three-month breakdown of map stats and handicap data, we have a fairly comparable sample size for both relative to number of matches and maps played in that time frame (20 matches & 51 maps by G2, 24 matches & 60 maps by FaZe).
With a slight roster advantage on the surface level, FaZe brings all five clan members to the match over the 1.00 impact rating player benchmark, with G2 bringing four, shy of AmaNek (0.99, so it’s that close).
On the other hand, G2 won their most recent meeting 2-1 at the ESL One: Road To Rio – Europe, just over two weeks ago. I feel this is the added juice over FaZe’s -105 moneyline, in a too-close-for-comfort matchup favoring G2 minorly at -130. While the -1.5 spread is a far less likely +235, also in lieu of this previous outcome, indicated by the unenticing -345 juice on the other side of that spread with FaZe on the +1.5.
However, the difference in rosters was one major player pickup shy by the likes of FaZe Clan, who have since added a steal of a pickup in 16-year old Bymas, as a replacement to struggling legend olofmeister.
With Mirage as a 90% win-rate over 10 maps played for FaZe Clan in the past three months, the 62% rate (over eight maps) for G2 strikes me as a map that may not be banned as a viewed strength by either team. On the other hand, Dust2 proves to be a greater asset to FaZe as a whole when considering win ratio comparison on this location (75% FaZe vs 31% G2).
Despite the recent close loss by that of FaZe Clan on May 16th to G2, I feel the turmoil was at a head with olofmeister at that time and that FaZe will seek reconciliation by the sword (or bowie knife, whichever) of young gun Bymas.
This is not the only reason I find the tides to be shifting in this matchup, as FaZe Clan has been on absolute fire recently, and both teams having won three of their last five matches apiece.
G2 has seemed a bit suspect in recent weeks, and indicated by their Form rating slumping in the past three weeks overall, with FaZe adjusting to Bymas in the past week.