Written by Winning Willie
*All odds courtesy of Bovada*
It's the weekend, and that can only mean one thing, the LEC is back! I've said numerous times before that I am not a fan of how the LEC handles scheduling, but that conversation we will save for another time. Ahead of us, we have a nice five game slate and, believe it or not, only one of the matches have the makings of an easy win. In the interest of full disclosure, I rarely wager more than one unit on LEC matches because of the variation in single game matches as opposed to a three game series, but I see value across the card nonetheless.
The opening match of the day is a battle of the cellar as the ninth place Excel (1-4) will face the last place FC Schalke 04 (0-5). Let's be completely honest with ourselves, neither of these teams are any good and neither will be competing for the LEC Summer title. Excel finally broke the win column with a victory over SK Gaming in their last match, but I don't have any faith in them to continue this success. I firmly believe that FC Schalke 04 is one of the worst teams in the LEC, but they will win at least a few games during this split. If there's going to be one they win, it will be here so I will take a stab at them for plus money.
We're staying in the cellar for the second contest as well as these two teams sit tied for 7th place with a 2-3 record. The only two wins that Misfits have so far are over FC Schalke 04 and Origen, two wins that won't turn heads. Vitality has a win over FC Schalke 04 as well, but they did pull a huge upset over G2 Esports at the end of Week 1 action. I am a big fan of Bot Laner Kobbe for Misfits and he's clearly the best player on his team, but I have a hard time believing he can single-handedly carry them to a victory. Neither team have really been performing as well as they should given their rosters, but I feel Vitality plays better as a team so I am taking them to win.
I alluded to the fact earlier that only one of these games have the potential to get ugly, and this is the one. Granted G2 Esports doesn't look quite as strong as they did in the spring, but SK Gaming has not impressed me in the slightest. Both teams hold a 3-2 record, but G2 has wins over MAD Lions and Rogue which are title contenders. Meanwhile SK Gaming has only beaten Origen, FC Schalke 04 and Misfits, and they looked horrible in their matches with MAD Lions and the easily beatable Excel. I picture this one getting ugly as I don't believe SK Gaming has even the slightest chance to win.
The fourth contest of the day should arguably be the most entertaining on the card. MAD Lions is tied for first place in the LEC with a 4-1 record, but they are small underdogs against the 3-2 Origen who is tied for third. The only loss thus far for MAD Lions has been to the defending Spring Split champions G2 Esports while Origen has two questionable losses to SK Gaming and Misfits, although they did upset G2 Esports. I can definitely understand why oddsmakers would list Origen as the small favorite here given they beat G2 while MAD Lions lost to them, but I don't think they can get the job done. MAD Lions looks really good this split and I believe they will be competing for the title at the end of it.
The closing battle of the day has the makings to be another barn-burner as the 4-1 Rogue who is tied for first place is getting a nice price to face the 3-2 Fnatic. I will say that this one is surely interesting as Fnatic may have been somewhat overrated. They have lost two straight, albeit at the hands of MAD Lions and Origen. Meanwhile, this will be the toughest test yet for Rogue outside of their match with G2 in their last game, one they lost at that. I can't say that I have a huge feel either way on who will be victorious in this contest as I feel this one is almost a flip of a coin. My play to round the day out will be the over on the total kills in this bout as both of these teams tend to play more aggressively, and I picture this one being somewhat of a bloodbath.