Free Picks For Belmont Park - 6/11/20

Race 5 - Allowance (Purse -$66,000)

This one and one-sixteenth mile race is slated to have seven 3-year-old fillies. #5 Spice Is Nice has the most class of the field but she has not raced since finishing fifth in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks back on March 28. While the daughter of Curlin missed at the current distance, she did score a victory (Maiden Special Weight) as well as a second (Davona Dale Stakes) at a mile. Todd Pletcher has tabbed John Velaquez, who has won 18% of his starts this year, to direct the Kentucky bred horse in her Belmont debut. #2 Master of Hope appears to be Spice is Nice, the 4/5 morning line favorite, biggest obstacle. Expect the speedy Master of Hope, who has not raced since breaking her maiden in February, to try to attempt to set the pace and, if she is able to, perhaps she will start her career 2-for-2. Jockey Eric Cancel is having the best season of his career though he will have to guide Master of Hope through this current distance for the first time. #4 Kansas Kis, the veteran of the group, had been rolling before being overmatched at this distance in the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park (May 1). While Kansas Kis was fifth in her only previous Belmont outing, she placed second at a mile two starts ago so I believe the Kentucky horse is capable of handling this distance.

Picks: believing that the 5 will go off as a heavy favorite, I like a trifecta bet with the #5 keyed with #2, #4. I also will take a show bet on the #4.

Race 8 - Allowance ($66,000)

This field of 11 3-year-old and upwards, who have to go one and one-fourth mile on the turf, is quite interesting as all but two competitors have not raced in at least 100 days. I’m giving #2 No Word the nod here. The 3-year-old colt is one of the two horses that has raced recently as he shook the cobwebs off in a $75,000 optional claimer at Gulfstream, which resulted in a third-place finish, in April. Todd Pletcher has tabbed Jose Ortiz to give No Word the added boost after finishing fifth in his only other outing at Belmont -- the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes. #7 Mr. Alec has yet to finish worse than second in any of his four career races but he has not raced since November. Despite the long layoff, Mr. Alec should be able to handle this distance as the four-year-old gelding has gone at a mile in each start as well. He is 1-for-1 at Belmont. Similarly, #4 Value Engineering, who has not raced since last September, likes the distance and the artificial surface as he has not finished lower than third in any of his four outings -- finishing third in his lone event at Belmont. I also will consider the #10 Tide of the Sea, #9 Militiaman, and #3 Mini P in exotic bets.

Picks: I will go with a show bet on the #2 unless his odds are 3/1 or lower then I would go with a win bet for the #2. I also like an exacta box of #2, #7,#4.

Race 9 - Flat Out Stakes (Purse -$80,000)

This very competitive field of nine 4-year-old’s and upward male horses will go one and three eighth miles. #4 Sir Winston, who is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite, has the most class in the field having posted a 50% WPS percentage in eight stakes races which includes two wins. The 2019 Belmont Stakes champion has not raced since turning a two and one-half length deficit into a two-and one-fourth length victory in an $80,000 optional claimer at Aqueduct on January 1 where he posted a career higher Beyer rating of 109. Jockey Joel Rosario has won 17% of his stakes races and finished in the top 3 in 49% of those efforts. #2 Rocketry also is coming off a lengthy layoff, having last raced in the Listed Grand Prix American Jockey Club Invitational Stakes back in September. The 6-year-old horse, who is part of the Centennial Farms family, has finished ‘in the money’ in 50% of his 10 stakes races since 2018. Rocketry is one of two competitors that have gone this distance, along with #1 Prompt, and has a 50% (2-for-4) success rate in these trips. #6 Expert has been strong in his last seven outings, medaling in six of those events. The 5-year-old Kentucky horse has not raced since ending up seventh in the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park mile, which is his only previous stakes race. Expert also had a strong last workout. #3 Moretti and #8 You’re To Blame have raced recently and should be considered in exotic bets. Saying that Moretti and You’re To Blame are second-tier horses in this field behind the top 3.

Picks: Depending on the post time odds, I like a show bet on the #4 and #2. I also like an exacta box of #4, #2, #6.