Free Picks For Gulfstream Park - 7/4/20
Race 3 - Maiden Special Weight (Purse -$47,000)
Eight male runners, including a trio of first-timers, will go six and one-half furlongs in search of their maiden victory. While I think that this race is pretty wide open, I believe it will ultimately come down to #2 Elusive Edge and #5 Brewmeister. Elusive Edge makes his way to Gulfstream via Tampa Bay after clearly being second best in his debut where he posted an ESpeed rating of 84 going this distance. Elusive Edge, who showed some good early speed in his first race, is also racing from an inside post position rather than outside like he did at Gulfstream. Jockey Edgar Zayas has scored a top 3 finish, including two wins, in his last seven maiden rides. Brewmeister is coming off his best race in three outings as he recorded a second-place finish, edging Sir Kahn by over two lengths, the last time out on June 13. Luca Panici gets his ride on Brewmeister, who for the first time in his career is running on the same track. #6 Sir Kahn is the most experienced of the competitors and also has shown the earliest speed in the field. The 3-year-old colt has registered two straight top 3 finishes though Sir Kahn had a tough trip the last time as he stumbled at the start and then hit the rail at the 3/16th pole. Like Brewmeister, Sir Kahn is stretching out from six lengths the last time out. #8 Mascabroni and #3 Plum Funny have been training well and are talented enough to give their more experienced counterparts some problems.
Picks: I like an exacta box of #2, #5. I also like a value show bet on the #8, #3.
Race 9 - Azalea Stakes (Purse - $75,000)
This seven-furlong filly stake race will have six 3-year-old runners. #6 Boerne appears to be the class of the field. The Texas horse is debuting at the distance after her 3-race win streak ended when she finished second to Up in Smoke in the six and one-half-furlong $75,000 Game Face Stakes race. Prior to her last outing, Boerne recorded three straight victories.#5 Don’t Get Khozy is making her stakes debut for red-hot trainer Antonio Sano, whose horses have finished in the top 3 in each of their last three stakes races. The Florida horse is coming off back-to-back victories, including the open-length score vs $75,000 optional claimers at this niche distance. Don’t Get Khozy has an 80% WPS percentage this year and has medaled in 10 of 15 starts overall. Jockey Joseph Trejos gets his second career stakes ride -- he claimed the bronze in his first stakes race --though he doesn’t get the apprentice weight relief in this one.#4 Compensate was just off the pace in the Game Face Stakes, the last time out, before tiring and finishing a distant sixth. While she has not medaled in any of her two stakes events, Compensate recorded a top 3 finish in 66.6% of her races. #2 Estilo Talentoso should also be considered in exotic bets.
Picks: I like a win bet on #6. I also like an exacta bet of #6, #5, #4. Additionally, I like a value show bet of #4.
Race 11 - Carry Back Stakes (Purse - $75,000)
This seven-furlong stakes races in for 3-year-old male races. I think that this stakes race appears to have three levels of ability. The first level consists of #2 Cajun Brother and #4 Double Crown. Double Crown has raced extremely well the past two races, claiming victory in the six and one-half furlong Roar Stakes. The Maryland horse is under the direction of trainer Katherine Ritvo, who has an 18% win rate and 44% WPS rate in stakes events. The speedy Cajun Brother is turning back to a sprint distance after his two-race win streak ended when he set the pace and faded to sixth in a one-mile $75,000 allowance optional claimer last out. #6 With Verve and #3 Poe man in the second tier. With Verve, who was 3rd behind Double Crown in the Roar Stakes, turns back after finishing fifth behind classy Sole Volante in a $100,000 optional claimer going a mile. The Florida gelding has shown improvement in each of his last four races and has a victory in the Listed Hutcheson Stakes. #3 Poe has not raced since seventh in the Smooth Air Stakes back on November 30. Poe should be able to put some pressure on Cajun Brother early in the race as he has shown some good early pace.
Picks: I like an exacta box of #2, #4. I also like a trifecta box of #2, #4, #6. Additionally, I like a show bet of the #6.