Free Picks For Saratoga - 7/16/20

Race 3 - Allowance (Purse -$73,000)

A small field of five 3-and-4-year-old fillies will go six furlongs in what appears to be a two-horse race. I believe that it will ultimately come down to #3 Palace Avenger and #5 Palomita. Palomita, a daughter of Into Mischief, is by far and away from the fastest of the competitors and has cashed in three of four career events. Palomita has not raced since last March but she has run well at this distance and owns a 33% win percentage at six furlongs. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has five wins in his last 18 rides. #3 Palace Avenger showed tremendous ability in her 2020 debut, posting a career-best ESpeed of 94, with a second-place finish in an allowance race at Churchill Downs on May 24. Palace Avenger has shown improvement in each of her last three events, which includes a top 2 finish in each of the three meets. Jose L. Ortiz, who has a 17% win rate and 47% WPS percentage this year, gets the ride on the Kentucky horse. #4 Glass Ceiling is making her third start since coming off a nearly four-month layoff. Glass Ceiling, who had her two-win race streak snapped the last time out, was seventh in the Grade 1 Acorn Stakes.

Picks: I like a win bet on the #3. I also like an exacta box of #3,5. Additionally, I will also make a show bet on the #4.

Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight ( Purse -$72,000)

Seven 3-year-old fillies, which includes two first-timers, will go six furlongs in what should be a very competitive race. #5 Valletta is the most experienced of the runners and has been very consistent in her last four efforts. The daughter of Into Mischief is coming off a fifth-place at Churchill Downs though she registered a career-best ESpeed of 83, which ironically came at the current distance. Trainer Carlos Martin and jockey Javier Castellano have a strong working relationship and own a 33% winning percentage together. #2 Yes To Mischief has trained well under the direction of Mark Casse and will have Jose L. Ortiz, who has a 20% win rate while also finishing in the top-3 37% of the time with first-time runners, in the saddle.#4 Palace Duchess, who finished third in her debut, and #7 Gran Chemin, who was fifth in her debut at Saratoga, are racing for the second time ever and for the initial time in 2020.

Picks: I will take #5 to win and also a show bet on the #2.

Race 8 - Schuylerville Stakes (Purse - $100,000)

This six-furlong sprint Grade III stakes race features eight quality 2-year-olds that have never gone this distance or raced at Saratoga. #3 Beautiful Memories led most of the way in her debut and coasted to a 10-length victory at Churchill Downs at the Special Weight level on May 28. The daughter of Hard Spun has also trained well, going five furlongs in 59 and 59.20 seconds recently at Churchill -- both of which were the best workout times among over 30 horses. Trainer Mark Casse has a 14% winning percentage and a 42% WPS percentage in stake races for his career. While Beautiful Memories roared in her debut, #8 Hopeful Princess had a battle on her hands in which she turned a five-length deficit down the stretch into a three-quarter length victory going four-and-one half furlongs the week prior at Churchill Downs. Trainer Steven Asmussen also has the daughter of Not This Time training pretty decently. New York-bred #1 Make Mischief, #7 Dayoutoftheoffice, and #4 Quinoa Tifah are also contenders and all are coming off victories in their debuts as well as training pretty well.

Picks: I like a win bet on the #3. I also like an exacta box of #3, #8, #1. Additionally, I will take a show bet on the #8, #1.

Race 9- Peter Pan Stakes (Purse -$100,000)

Nine 3-year-old male horses will go one and one-eighth miles in this Grade 3 Stakes race with the top 4 finishers collecting points for participation in the 2020 Kentucky Derby. I believe that four horses have distinguished themselves, however, I can’t recommend a win bet on #7 Caracaro despite what my handicapping numbers say. I think that Caracaro may still be a factor due to his early speed, he is not as experienced as most of the other competitors -- having started just twice before with both coming at the maiden special weight level (Gulfstream)and has not raced since January. Plus, Caracaro has not ever run at this distance and has trained poorly. So, who do I like better? There are three -- #3 Modernist, #5 Candy Tycoon, and #6 Mystic Guide. Modernist is my choice as he has a 66.7% winning percentage at this distance and is coming off a seventh-place finish in the Belmont Stakes as well as a third-place finish in the Grade II Louisiana Derby. Expect the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes winner, who has shown pretty good early pace, to be around the first flight of runners most of the race. Candy Tycoon has finished in the money in four of six starts which includes nabbing second in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes on Feb. 29. Candy Tycoon is known as a closer and is coming off a second-place finish against $80,000 optional claimers at Oaklawn back in May. Mystic Guide has shown improvement in each of his last two races, finishing second to Belmont Stakes participant Tap It To Win the last time out on June 5.

Picks: I will go with a win bet on the #3. I also like an exacta box of #3, #5, #6.

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