Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Preview and Odds - 5/26/21
A pair of Western Conference teams take the floor in the Valley of the Sun in WNBA action. The Las Vegas Aces are on the road as they make the trip to face the Phoenix Mercury Wednesday night. Las Vegas was knocked off 72-65 at home by Connecticut Sunday evening in their most recent contest. Phoenix was dropped 84-67 at home by Connecticut in their latest contest Friday night. The Mercury won both meetings between the teams last season in the bubble. That includes a 92-85 victory as the road team in the most recent matchup on September 1, 2020. All told, Phoenix has won seven of the last 10 meetings.
Las Vegas Aces Seeking to Regroup on the Road
Las Vegas had won two straight games but was shut down offensively for long stretches by Connecticut in their last game, leading to a home loss. The Aces now hope to bounce back and get in the win column on the road here. Las Vegas got off to a slow start, trailing 11-2 just over four minutes into the game, and were down 10 after the opening quarter. The Aces regrouped by outscoring Connecticut 25-9 in the second quarter to lead by six at the half. Las Vegas was still up six midway through the third quarter before giving up a 17-0 run that put them down 50-39 with 2:46 to go in the stanza. The Aces clawed back within two on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter but couldn’t come up with the victory. Las Vegas shot 40.7% from the field, including five of 16 from three-point range, and lost the rebounding battle 44-26. A’ja Wilson led the Aces with 14 points and seven rebounds in the loss.
The Aces come into this contest near the top of the pack in scoring offense, ranking third with 85.3 points per game. Las Vegas is eighth in the league in rebounding (35.8 boards a game) and stand fourth in the league in assists by handing out 20 dimes per contest. The Aces have been solid on the defensive end of the floor as they are 4th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 79.5 points a game. A’ja Wilson leads the Aces with 18.3 points, 7.8 rebounds and 3.3 assists per game. Liz Cambage (13.8 points, 7.5 rebounds), Jackie Young (13.5 points, 4.8 rebounds) and Kelsey Plum (10.5 points) are all solid secondary options on the offensive end. Coach Bill Laimbeer also can call on Chelsea Gray (12.3 points, 5.3 assists), Dearica Hamby (11 points, 6.8 boards), Riquna Williams, Jisu Park, Emma Cannon and Destiny Slocum to contribute on both ends of the floor. Las Vegas is first in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 47.7% from the field as a team this season. The Aces are 11th in the league in threes per game (4.5) and seventh in three-point shooting at 31.6% on the year. Las Vegas is currently second in free throw shooting at 83.1% on the season. Plum is currently with USA Basketball for the three-on-three qualifying tournament in Graz, Austria for the Olympics and will be out until early June.
Phoenix Mercury Looking to Bounce Back at Home
Phoenix has alternated wins and losses in their first four games of the season as they followed up a win over Washington on the road by getting trounced by Connecticut in their home opener Friday. On the plus side, the Mercury are 2-0 against everyone that isn’t the Sun, who they fell to 0-2 against with the loss. Against Connecticut, Phoenix never led as they were down 11-0 two-and-a-half minutes into the game, and never recovered. The Mercury was down eight after the opening quarter, by 18 at the half and never got closer than 10 in the second half en route to the defeat. Phoenix shot 38.2% from the field, including five of 20 from three-point range, and were destroyed 48-24 on the glass, including giving up 17 offensive rebounds. Skylar Diggins-Smith led the Mercury with 20 points in the loss.
The Mercury are seventh in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 78.3 points per game. Phoenix is seventh in rebounding (35.8 rebounds) per contest and stand tied for sixth in the league by handing out 19 assists a night. The Mercury is third in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 78.8 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith leads the Mercury in scoring with 16.5 points a night. Brittney Griner (13.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, three blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.8 points, 3.8 assists) and Brianna Turner (8.8 points, 9.3 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, Alanna Smith and Cierra Burdick are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is sixth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 42.1% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is sixth in three-pointers per game (seven per game) and eighth in three-point shooting (30.1%) this season. Phoenix is 10th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 74.4% of their chances on the year. Kia Vaughn has cleared quarantine for COVID-19 and is expected to return for her season debut here. Taurasi was announced to have suffered a fractured sternum that she sustained May 16 against the Sun and is out. She is expected to miss at least four weeks.
Pick: Las Vegas Aces -7.5
While the Mercury have dropped two games to the Sun and are unbeaten against everyone else, it’s hard to get a handle on them so far. Phoenix was handled rather easily in their home opener against the Sun as they were hammered into oblivion. Las Vegas was dropped by Connecticut in their last game at home but they held the lead at the half and into the third quarter before giving up that 17-0 run. The Aces still battled and made it a two-point game on multiple occasions in the fourth quarter before falling short. Wilson and Cambage should be able to do damage on the inside and they lead the league in field goal percentage. The Mercury has to show that they can beat the better teams in the league and until they do, you have to fade them accordingly. Losing Taurasi is a big blow for the Mercury as it means someone else has to step up offensively. Give the edge to the Aces here.
Total: Over 167.5
Both teams were under the mark in their previous contests, with both those games coming against the Sun. While both teams are solid defensively with the Mercury ranking third in scoring defense and the Aces fourth, the fact remains that there is no shortage of offensive weaponry to work with on either side. The Aces have six players averaging in double figures counting the missing Plum, so you can’t just key on Wilson or Cambage. Meanwhile, Phoenix has a trio of veterans that can light up the scoreboard along with an emerging talent in Turner. Each of the last six meetings between the teams have ended up over the number. Look for these teams to push the pace and rack up enough points to go over the mark as well.
