March Madness First Round Predictions and Analysis- South
SOUTH REGION FIRST ROUND
#1 Arizona Wildcats vs. #16 Wright State/Bryant
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#8 Seton Hall vs. #9 TCU – Ben Hayes
Seton Hall has been ravaged with injuries including 25- year-old point guard Bryce Aiken for the season due to a concussion. Yet the Pirates found a way to win six straight games at the end before losing to UConn at the Big East Tournament. TCU limped its way into the tournament. This was a team that shot the ball very poorly from three-point range (29.6) and like most Jamie Dixon teams, they have to hit the boards. Seton Hall can hold their own on the boards so that negates an advantage. Prediction: Seton Hall -1
#5 Houston vs. #12 UAB – Ben Hayes
UAB is a feisty team that has given South Carolina (66-63 loss) a tough game and West Virginia (65-59). But they haven't played a team as good as Houston. The Cougars, coached by Kelvin Sampson, rolled through the AAC Tournament, dominating a pretty good Memphis team. Houston holds teams to just 58.9 points and 37.2% shooting to lead the nation. But they are one of the few great defensive teams with a very good offense. Fabian White at 6-8, 230 is a problem and had a back issue in the AAC Trny. He came back after missing a game to score 20 in the final. Prediction: Houston -9
#4 Illinois vs. #13 Chattanooga – Ben Hayes
The Mocs won the Southern Tournament and reg. season. In non-conference play, Chattanooga beat a tough VCU team on the road. While they have a tough task against 7-foot Kofi Cockburn, who will be a tough matchup for any team. The Mocs have Silvio De Sousa (6-9, 250) and Avery Diggs (6-10, 255) who are not small. The Illini may not have Jacob Grandison (10.3ppg), who has a shoulder issue and has not played since March 3. The Illini are talented, but they play down to their opponents. They've covered just once in their last five and twice in their last nine. There will be at least one 13th seed defeating a four as they are 5-7 last 12. Prediction: Chattanooga +7.5
#6 Colorado State vs. #11 Michigan – Ben Hayes
This is one of the rare cases where the No. 11 seed is the favorite. The Wolverines are just 17-14 and they are going to the Big Dance because of their SOS, which is sixth according to KenPom. Nobody doubts the talent led by 7-1 Hunter Dickinson, but the Wolverines have been underachievers. James Moors at 6-10, 240 will have to hold his own along with double teams. The Rams beat Mississippi State and Saint Mary's in non-conference play. This is a guard-oriented team that will give the Wolverines fits. Prediction: Colorado State +2.5
#3 Tennessee vs. #14 Longwood – Ben Hayes
Longwood won the Big South Tournament. That was nice, but it will end here against a very good Tennessee team that beat up on Kentucky and Texas A&M and won the SEC Tournament with relative ease. Yet, they ended up with a No. 3 seed. The Lancers lost to Iowa 106-73 to open the season and fell at a terrible Georgetown team by eight. The Vols have a bunch of terrific guards led by Kennedy Chandler (13.7ppg, 4.6apg) and Santiago Vescovi (13.5ppg,3.1apg). They are just too good defensively and can shoot the three (35.3%). That's a tough combination. Prediction: Tennessee -15.5
#7 Ohio State vs. #10 Loyola-Chicago – Ben Hayes
Drew Valentine is the youngest coach at 30 in Division I. A long run could mean that Loyola Chicago is looking for another coach. The Ramblers are the slight favorite here, because nobody wants to play at their pace. They are 308th in Adjusted Tempo according to KenPom. OSU is limping into this one with Zed Key (8.1ppg, 5.4rpg) and Kyle Young (8.2ppg) is questionable for various issues. The Buckeyes have lost four of their last five games including a 71-68 defeat to Penn State in the Big 10 Trny. Loyola Chicago won the tough Missouri Valley, beat Vanderbilt and Arizona State. They gave Michigan State a tough time (63-61) and could make another Final Four run. This is a team that shoots lights out (38.8% 3pt). They are top 10 in three-point shooting and field goal shooting. Prediction: Loyola-Chicago -1
#2 Villanova vs. #15 Delaware – Ben Hayes
Villanova won the Big East. What else is new? Delaware was the fifth seed in the CAA Tournament and lost to Villanova by just eight in December of 2019. Both schools are close in proximity around 45 minutes away and playing in Pittsburgh. That should help a veteran Delaware team who has a ton of veteran guards led by Jameer Nelson Jr. (13.7ppg), but they have solid post players. Dylan Painter (6-10, 240) is a Villanova transfer who will look to produce against his old team. Nova is 6-1 at neutral sites, but Delaware is 5-2. The Wildcats move on, but a veteran Blue Hens team will push them. Prediction: Delaware +16.5
