Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction, Preview and Odds - 7/3/21
A pair of Western Conference teams take the floor in the Valley of the Sun in a WNBA tilt. The Minnesota Lynx are on the road as they travel to face the Phoenix Mercury Saturday night in the second game of a two-game set. On Wednesday night in the opening game of this two-game set, it was the Lynx taking an 82-76 victory to ensure no worse than a split and evened the season series. In the first meeting between the teams this season, it was the Mercury clawing out a 77-75 victory on the road back on May 14. Minnesota has won eight of the last 10 meetings: will Phoenix bounce back with a victory here or can the Lynx keep rolling?
Minnesota Lynx Seek Fourth Straight Win
Minnesota won their third straight game as they took the opening game of this two-game set on the road. The Lynx improved to 8-7 on the season and entered Friday fifth in the WNBA playoff picture, 1.5 games ahead of the ninth-place Mystics to remain on the proper side of the cut line. Minnesota gave up an 11-0 run in the first quarter to trail by 11 before cutting the deficit to five after the opening quarter. The Lynx led by one at the half and trailed by one midway through the third quarter before going on a decisive 12-0 run to take a 64-53 lead. Minnesota didn’t let Phoenix closer than four the rest of the way to earn the win. The Lynx shot 50.7% from the field, including six of 13 from three-point range, and won the rebounding battle 39-22. Kayla McBride led Minnesota with 26 points in the win.
On the season, the Lynx are 5th in the league in scoring offense with an average of 82.4 points per game. Minnesota is 7th in rebounding as they collect 35 boards a night while the team is fourth in assists by dishing 20.2 dimes a night. The Lynx are eighth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 83 points per contest this season. Sylvia Fowles is second on the team with 17.2 points plus 10 rebounds per contest. Kayla McBride (13.3 points), Crystal Dangerfield (9.3 points, 3.9 assists) and Aerial Powers (10 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.5 assists) are solid secondary scoring options. Damiris Dantas, Napheesa Collier (17.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists), Jessica Shepard, Layshia Clarendon (9.1 points, 4.9 assists), Bridget Carleton, Rachael Banham, Natalie Achonwa and Linnae Harper are looked at to be contributors for coach Cheryl Reeve. Minnesota stands third in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 44.6% from the field as a team this year. The Lynx are 8th in the league in three-pointers per game (6.9) and 10th in three-point shooting as they hit 33.2% of their attempts from beyond the arc. Minnesota is 5th in the league in free throw shooting as they hit 81.9% of their attempts at the charity stripe. Powers is out eight to 10 weeks after undergoing thumb surgery June 18 for a torn UCL. Achonwa (knee) and Rennia Davis (foot) are out indefinitely at this point in time.
Phoenix Mercury Look to Split Series
Phoenix had their two-game win streak snapped as they lost for the fourth time in six games by dropping the opener of this two-game set. The Mercury fell to 7-8 on the season and held the final spot in the WNBA playoff picture, half a game ahead of the ninth-place Mystics entering Friday. Phoenix used an 11-0 run in the first quarter to take a 23-12 lead with 2:29 to play in the opening stanza before things started to slip away. The Mercury saw their lead trimmed to five after the opening quarter, trailed by one at the half and led by one midway through the third quarter. Phoenix then surrendered a 12-0 run to trail by 11 and couldn’t get closer than four after that as Minnesota held them off. The Mercury shot 42.6% from the field, including six of 22 from three-point range, and lost the battle of the boards by a 39-22 margin. Brittney Griner led Phoenix with 28 points and seven rebounds in the loss.
The Mercury are 10th in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 79.3 points per game. Phoenix is sixth in rebounding (35.8 rebounds) per contest and stand seventh in the league by handing out 18.3 assists a night. The Mercury are third in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 80.1 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is second on the Mercury in scoring with 18.7 points plus 5.2 assists a night. Brittney Griner (20.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 2.2 blocks), Diana Taurasi (16.3 points, 4.2 assists) and Brianna Turner (7.5 points, 8.7 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (9.6 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy and Alanna Smith are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is fifth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.2% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is 10th in three-pointers per game (6.3 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (29.8%) this season. Phoenix is 10th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 78% of their chances on the year.
Pick: Minnesota Lynx
Admittedly, I had higher expectations for the Mercury in the opening game of this two-game set with Taurasi back in the mix but they ended up flopping in a key stretch of the second half. That inevitably cost them the game as Minnesota maintained control from there. The Lynx are missing some key personnel but we’ve seen them play solid basketball led by Collier, Clarendon, McBride and Fowles. Phoenix struggles when it comes to shooting from the perimeter and they leave points on the floor at the charity stripe. The Mercury is just 2-6 at home this season and that proves to be their downfall again. Look for Minnesota to earn the victory in this contest.
Total: Under
We saw these teams end up falling short of the mark in the opening game of this two-game set as they combined for 158 points against a 165.5-point total. The under has hit in each of the last four meetings and nine of the previous 10 entering this contest. Phoenix has seen the under hit eight times with one push in their 15 games this season. Meanwhile, Minnesota has seen the over hit in nine of their 15 games on the season. Still, the Lynx are missing some personnel and even with shooting better than 50% from the floor Wednesday night, the game still missed the total by a fair margin. Based on what we’ve seen when these teams meet, this one falls short of the mark.
