NBA Playoff Preview and Predictions for first round
This was written before the NBA play-in game(s) between Portland and Memphis, though let's assume the Trail Blazers advance, because they need to win just one game, while the Grizzlies need to win two straight.
(edit: The Blazers did advance in one game, defeating the Memphis Grizzlies and will face the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round of the playoffs starting on Tuesday at 9pmET).
(odds from betonline.ag)
Eastern Conference
1)Milwaukee vs. 8)Orlando
Series Price: Milwaukee -10000/Orlando +2000
Title Odds:
Bucks: +300
Magic: +25000
The Bucks struggled in the Bubble, going 3-5, but have gone 56-17 overall. But they should get by the first round. The Magic finished at 33-40 and basically underachieved this season The Bucks didn't take the bubble seriously, as they rested several key players including MVP candidate Giannis Antetokounmpo. They have the Lopez twins to clog the middle defensively, the Greek Freak's length on defense along with defensive stalwarts like Eric Bledsoe and Kris Middleton. If the Bucks have an issue, it's giving up too many threes, because Brook and Robin Lopez have the mobility of a statue. The Magic were 3-5 in the Bubble and while they play hard, they don't have the talent to make a run. Nikola Vucevic could give the Bucks some issues with his ability to shoot the three. But when your leading scorer is Nikola Vucevic (19.6ppg) and your best young player Jonathan Isaac (11.9ppg) just tore his ACL, you have no chance. Bucks in four.
2)Toronto Raptors vs. 7)Brooklyn Nets
Series Price:
Raptors: +1000; Nets: +20000
Title Odds: Raptors -2500/Nets +1100
Let's hand it to Jacque Vaughn, who managed to go 5-3 in the Bubble with the Spencer Dinwiddie (20.6ppg, 6.8apg) and DeAndre Jordan out with COVID-19 and Kyrie Irving out with a shoulder injury. The Nets could be a scary team next season with Kevin Durant and Irving healthy, but the Nets still have some talent. Caris LeVert was sensational in the Bubble and nearly beat the Trail Blazers by himself in the last game on Thursday. LeVert (18.7ppg, 4.4apg) runs the show, while small forward Joe Harris (14.5ppg) is the team's best pure shooter. Jarrett Allen (11.1pg, 9.6rpg) can give the Nets some size up front and interior defense. Speaking of coaching, Nick Nurse-led Toronto to a 7-1 record in the Bubble. This is a team that wins with defense and like Milwaukee, they have a lot of length up front. The led all teams in the Bubble with a defensive efficiency of 101.8. But they also averaged 18.7 turnovers per game. Pascal Siakam has been the team's star this season with 22.9 points per game and 7.3 rebounds. Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry have become a great backcourt, despite their lack of size. Nets will steal one game. Raptors in five.
3)Boston Celtics vs. 6)Philadelphia 76ers
Series Price: Celtics: -370/76ers: +300
Title Odds: Boston +1200/Philadelphia +6600
Boston appears to be everybody's wild card for winning the Eastern Conference. They certainly have the talent and went 5-3 in the Bubble, after a slow start. The key is point guard Kemba Walker (20.4ppg, 4.8apg), who has dealt with knee issues all year long. He averaged just 13.8ppg in the Bubble, but is shooting 41.4% from beyond the arc, so he's been very efficient. Jayston Tatum (23.4ppg, 7rpg) and Jaylen Brown (20.3ppg) are one of the best young duoes in the league, while Gordon Hayward (17.5ppg, 6.7rpg, 4.1apg) is getting close to All-Star form. However, their lack of size could be their undoing. Facing the Sixers with Enes Kanter and Robert Williams III is not fair against Joel Embiid (23ppg, 11.6rpg). The big man might be more motivated now that Ben Simmons (16.4ppg, 8apg, 7.8rpg) is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on point guard Shake Milton (9.4ppg). With Simmons gone, that means more playing time for former Celtics' big man Al Horford (11.9ppg, 6.8rpg), who has never fit in well with the Sixers. The bigger question is whether Philly can afford to lose Simmons or Embiid? At this point, it looks like they can afford to lose Simmons. I don't have the cajones to go with the Sixers, but I think it will be closer than people think due to Embiid and Horford. Take the Celtics in seven.
4)Indiana Pacers vs. 5)Miami Heat
Series Price: Heat -310/Pacers +260
Title Odds:
Heat +3300
Pacers +12500
Indiana was a solid 4-2 in the Bubble and had no Domantas Sabonis (18.5ppg, 12.4rpg). Sabonis is out with an injury and Victor Oladipo (14.5ppg) continues to rehab his quadriceps. Enter T.J. Warren, a good scorer from Phoenix, who exjplded with 53 points against the Sixers and now leads the team with 19.8 points per game. He'll need to put up 30+ points in this series, but they do have good guard in Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdon (16.5ppg). The problem is up front as they need Myles Turner (12.1ppg, 6.6rpg) to pick up the slack on the boards. Miami was 3-5 in the Bubble, but they are the favorite in this series. That's because Jimmy Butler (19.9ppg) is the team leader and relishes the job of defending Warren. This is a squad with a big-time defender and rebounder in Bam Adebayo (15.9ppg, 10.2rpg, 1.3bpg) and some outstanding young wings in Tyler Herro (13.5ppg) and Duncan Robinson (13.5ppg). They also have another solid playoff performer in Jae Crowder (11.9ppg, 5.4rpg). There's one thing lacking for Miami and that's a superstar. Butler is really good but not a three-point shooter, while point guard Goran Dragic (16.2ppg, 5.1apg) has lost a few steps. This has a chance of being a great series with both teams being very equal. Going against the grain and taking the Pacers in six.
Western Conference
1)Los Angeles Lakers vs. 8)Portland Trail Blazers/Memphis Grizzlies
Series Price: Lakers -550/Portland +430; Lakers -5000/Memphis +1550
Title Odds: Lakers: +300; Portland: +2500; Memphis: +25000
Going to assume Portland takes out Memphis, who lost their best frontcourt player in Jaren Jackson Jr. Ja Morant and Dillon Brooks can't do it by themselves. Both are very good players, but they are not Dame Lillard and C.J. McCollum. As good as Portland has been in the Bubble and Lillard has been out of this world good, they don't have the defense to stop the Lakers. That backcourt is small and they were abused by Caris LeVert and the Nets in that final seedings game. They have a dearth of big men in Jusuf Nurkic (17.6ppg, 10.3rpg), Hassan Whiteside (15.5ppg, 13.5rpg, 2.9bpg) and Zach Collins (7ppg, 6.3rpg). What they don't have is an answer for Anthony Davis, who struggled in the Bubble and LeBron James. Kyle Kuzma (15.4ppg, 44.4% 3pt in the Bubble) has stepped up his game and now you're asking Carmelo Anthony and the three big men to defend James, Davis and Kuzma. If the Lakers need to go big, they have Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee to defending Nurkic. Lakers in five.
2)LA Clippers vs. 7)Dallas Mavericks
Series Price: Clippers: -600; Mavericks: +460
Title Odds: LA Clippers: +250; Dallas: +4000
This could be a fun series. The Clippers went 5-3 in the Bubble and looked disinterested at times. The best part of the bubble was the emergence of center Ivica Zubac, who averaged 11.3 points and 11.3 rebounds in the Bubble. He played a lot with Montrezl Harrell being out due to quarantine. But Harrell will be key down the line, if they meet the Lakers and Davis. The bottom line is that they have Kawhi Leonard (27.1ppg, 7.1rpg, 4.9apg) and Paul George (21.5ppg, 5.7rpg, 3.9apg) along with one of the best sixth men in the game in Lou Williams (18.2ppg). Chemistry might be in the issue in the first round with players missing a lot of time. Leonard will likely be defending Luka Doncic, who averaged 29 points, seven boards, seven assists (5 TOs) but has shot just 27.7% from beyond the arc against the Clippers this season. Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis (20.4ppg, 9.5rpg) are a heck of a duo, but the Mavs have a bunch of role players who are facing elite defenders in George and Leonard along with the ultimate pest in Patrick Beverley. Clippers in five games.
3)Denver Nuggets vs. 6)Utah Jazz
Series Price: Jazz +175; Nuggets -205
Title Odds: Denver +3000; Utah +7500
This should be a fun series. Neither team really has a superstar, though you can say the Nuggets have one in Nikola Jokic (19.9ppg, 9.7rpg, 7.0apg). Denver, who went 4-4 in the Bubble, found out they may have a future star in Michael Porter Jr., who averaged 22 points, 8.6 rebounds on 42.2% three-point shooting in the Bubble. What they really need is strong guard play as Gary Harris (hip) and Will Barton (knee) have been hampered in the Bubble. Jamal Murray, Barton and Harris are all capable of long-range daggers. Utah offers the best defensive big man in the game in Rudy Gobert, but Jokic averaged 29 points, 12 rebounds and 9.0 assists against the Jazz this season. Utah was just 3-5 in the Bubble and lost four games by less than 10 points. Donovan Mitchell leads the way with 24 points per game and Bojan Bogdanovic adds 20.2 points. This is a pretty balanced squad, however, Bogdanovich is out due to wrist surgery. That's a big loss to a plodding, methodical offense. Utah will also not have point guard Mike Conley for Game 1 and Game 2, who had to leave the bubble to Columbus, Ohio to see his newborn son. That means he will have to quarantine for at least four days, assuming he tests negative. He could also miss Game 3. Take the Nuggets in six.
4)Houston Rockets vs. 5)Oklahoma City Thunder
Series Price: Houston: -155; OKC: +135
Title Odds: Houston +1500; OKC: +5000
It's Russell Westbrook against his old team! Or maybe not. Westbrook may not play in the first round due to a strained right quad. Westbrook (27.2ppg, 7.9rpg, 7.0apg) leads the Rockets in rebounding, but that's not shocking considering they play small ball. James Harden (35.3ppg, 0.2rpg, 9.7apg, 53.6% in Bubble) has been sensational lately and Eric Gordon (14.4ppg) is capable of stepping up, but he's not Westbrook. The Rockets went 4-4 in the Bubble, while the Thunder went 4-4. The Thunder are 44-28 and it all starts with Chris Paul. This may be his last chance to get to the NBA Finals or at least advance in the playoffs. He's having a great year with 17.6 points and 6.7 assists. He knows how to control a game. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (19ppg, 5.9rpg) has stepped up as well. The Thunder may not have Harden, but they play strong defense. They ranked first in three-point percentage (30.1%) in the Bubble. Taking the Thunder in seven.
(some info gleaned from ESPN.com)
