NBA Recap: Atlantic Division
According to various media reports, the NBA will return at some point during the summer. Ramona Shelburne of ESPN said recently that NBA players and owners want to salvage the season 2019-20 season, "no matter what", even if it's in July, August, or September. Hopefully, the league will return shortly, even if there are no fans in the stands. Most teams have played about 3/4 of their season. Some teams have played as many as 67 games (Dallas and Atlanta), who have just 15 games left. We're going to take a look at the way the league was before it was halted on March 11, after Utah center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19. We're going to take a look at each team by division in the NBA and list them in order of their SU record. But we're also going to look at some of the handicapping stats, trends, and angles, because once the NBA returns, you'll need a refresher course on how each team has fared overall after the stoppage is over.
Atlantic Division:
1)Toronto Raptors:
Record: 46-18 SU, 35-28-1 ATS, 34-29-1 O/U, 30-10 Eastern Conference.
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (25-1), East Finals (13-2)
Eastern Conference Ranking: 2nd (6.5 games behind Milwaukee)
Recap:
Toronto has been one of the league's biggest surprises. Despite losing superstar Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors are in great position to win the Atlantic Division and finish second in the Eastern Conference behind Milwaukee. Finishing second is very critical considering they would probably end up facing Brooklyn or Orlando (both have losing records) in the first round instead of taking on Philadelphia or Indiana.
Nick Nurse should be a no-brainer for Coach of the Year. They lost the best man-to-man defender in the league and still manage to lead the league in points allowed per game (106.5ppg), rank second in field goal percentage defense (42.9%) and first in three-point defense (33.7). The player who has emerged in place of Leonard is power forward Pascal Siakam (6-9, 230), who is averaging 23.6 points and 7.5 rebounds on 45.9% shooting (35.9% 3pt). His length also anchors a very long frontcourt led by Serge Ibaka (7-0, 235) and OG Anunoby (6-7, 230). When he's healthy, the Raptors go with 35-year old Marc Gasol at center, though he is not the same player he was with Memphis. The 7-footer is shooting just 41.9% from the field, though he is averaging just 7.6ppg. On the plus side, he can shoot the three (40.2%) and is still a very good passing big man.
The backcourt is near the top of the Eastern Conference. That's because Fred VanVleet (17.6ppg, 6.6apg, 38.8%0 moves into the starting lineup to line up with Kyle Lowry (19.7ppg, 7.7apg) to give the Raptors too short and stocky point guard, who can spread the floor with their three-point shooting or get to the rim when necessary. The bigger issue for VanVleet is his health. Having additional minutes creates better stats, but his body may not be used to the starting role. Norman Powell is an underrated 6-5 wing, who averages 16.4 points on 50.2% shooting from the field and 39.8% from long range. They can start him at shooting guard, bring him off the bench or move him to small forward as Anonoby can start or come off the bench to play either forward spot.
Strengths: Length, experience, defense and backcourt. They do have a go-to-guy in Siakam, though he is unproven in the playoffs. The defense is sensational and their length creates problems for opponents. Torontl ranks second in steals per game with 8.8 and second in opponent true shooting percentage (48.6%).
Weaknesses: This is a slightly above-average offensive team. They rank 13th in offensive rating (111.6) and 13th in pace. They shoot just 45.8% from the field (21st). Gasol appears to be on the decline and they lack a post presence on offense. Leonard will be missed during the playoffs because he had the poise and ability to take over a game when needed.
Key Injuries: VanVleet (shoulder) should return by the time the season resumes.
Gambling Outlook: As long as their nucleus is around with VanVleet back healthy, this is a very dangerous team. They won four straight games before the league was halted. However, they've covered just twice in their last seven games, mainly due to injuries to Powell and VanVleet.
2)Boston Celtics
Record: 43-21 SU, 38-23-3 ATS, 30-34 O/U, 28-10 Eastern Conference
Odds from VegasInsider: NBA Finals (25-1), East Finals (13-2)
Eastern Conference Ranking: 3rd (9.5 games behind Milwaukee).
Recap:
It's been a rough year in New England. First, Mookie Betts leaves the Red Sox for Los Angeles and Tom Brady moves from Foxborough to Tampa Bay. The Celtics won their last game 114-111 over Indiana, but that had broken a two-game losing streak. At times, this has been a very good Boston team, but at other times, they've looked lost. They went 5-5 in their last 10 games, falling to Utah, Brooklyn, Houston, Oklahoma City and the Lakers. Four of those losses took place at home. Injuries were part of the reason for the inconsistencies in that stretch and all season long. Point guard Kemba Walker (21.2ppg, 4.9apg) has played in just 50 of the team's 64 games. Shooting guard Jaylon Brown (20.4ppg, 6.4rpg) has also missed 14 games due to injury. One of the team's best all-around players has been Marcus Smart (13.5ppg, 4.8apg), but he has missed 11 games is now dealing with COVID-19. He was playing as well as anybody on the team, averaging 18.3 points over his last nine games.
Smart anchors one of the best defenses in the league. Boston allows just 106.8 points per game (2nd), 44.2% shooting (4th) and 34.2% from long range (8th). One player who has really stepped up this year is 6-8 forward Jayson Tatum, who leads the Celtics with 23.6 points per game on 39.8% three-point shooting with 7.1 rebounds per game. Wing Gordon Hayward is nearly back to his pre-injury form with 17.3 points per game on 50.2% shooting (39.2% 3pt) with 6.5 rebounds and 4.1 assists. But the C's do miss center Al Horford's contribution in the post. Enes Kanter (8.2ppg, 7.7 rpg) is not a defensive whiz, while Daniel Theis has been a pleasant surprise (9.3ppg, 6.6rpg). Offensively, Boston averages 113 points per game (11th) on 45.9% shooting (36.3% 3pt).
Strengths: Defense and depth. Smart, Walker, Tatum, Brown and Hayward can all take over games when necessary. Tatum has become a star.
Weaknesses: Lack of a quality big man could hurt in the playoffs. Tatum hasn't been the "man" in the postseason yet. He might cede at times to Walker. They really don't want to face Philadelphia if they wind up at No. 3 and the Sixers finish at No. 6.
Key injuries: Most of Boston's injuries were nagging ones. They should be healed up during the hiatus.
Gambling Outlook: It's hard not to like a healthy Boston team and down the stretch, they will need to win games. Why? To avoid a Sixers team that owns them (3-1 in regular season). If they can avoid teams with dominant big men, they could end up facing Milwaukee in the EC Finals.
3)Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 39-26 SU, 28-33-4 ATS, 34-30-1 O/U, 26-16 EC (28-2 home)
Odds: NBA Finals (40-1); East Finals (15-1)
Eastern Conference Ranking: 6th (14.0 games behind Milwaukee, t-5th with Indiana)
Recap:
While Toronto has been one of the league's biggest surprises, Philadelphia has been one of the biggest disappointments. One positive of the postponement of the league is that star guard Ben Simmons (6-10, 240) can rest his injured back. Simmons (16.7ppg, 7.8rpg, 8.2apg) has been one of the league's top defensive players, he's held players to just 41.3% shooting when he's defended them. He leads the league in steals per game and total, is third in the NBA in deflections and tied for the league lead in defensive loose balls recovered per game. The Sixers have been up-and-down without him, but one thing is noticeable. When he's out, the 76ers become an over team as they had gone six straight and seven of eight over the total. Simmons has missed nine of the last 10 games.
Defensively, even with Simmons, Philadelphia is a little above average. They allow 107.4ppg (6th) on 46.2% shooting (16th) and 35.4% three-point shooting (15th). On offense, they are averaging 109.6 points per game (21st) on 46.5% shooting (10th) and 36.2% from long range (14th). Simmons (2-6 3pt) is not a three-point threat so he and Joel Embiid (23.4ppg, 11.8rpg, 34.8% 3pt) are not a perfect fit. Embiid has missed 21 games, so continuity has been a problem with Al Horford (12ppg, 6.9rpg, 4.1apg), though this is an incredibly huge team. Tobias Harris (6-8, 226) adds 19.4ppg and 6.8rpg on 47.2% shooting (36.2% 3pt). Josh Richardson (13.8ppg) and Alec Burks (10.7ppg, 32.7% 3pt) add more shooting from the wing, though Burks has struggled since being added from Golden State in a trade. He was averaging 16.1ppg with the Warriors on 37.5% three-point shooting.
Key injuries: Simmons (back).
Strengths: With Horford, Simmons and Embiid on the court together, few teams can match that kind of size. Simmons is good enough to guard centers and point guards. They have a lot of good wings in Richardson, Harris and Burks. Their bench is solid led by Burks and Mike Scott. Rookie guard Matisse Thybulle isn't a big scorer, but is very athletic and can defend.
Weaknesses: If Burks continues to struggle, the Sixers miss that lights-out shooter they had last season with J.J. Redick or close to him. They still lack spacing with Simmons and Embiid are on the floor.
Gambling Outlook: Nobody wants to face Philadelphia in the first round, but if Simmons is hurting, they are done. If not, he, Embiid, Harris and Horford will be difficult to match up in the playoffs. They also would rather get the fifth spot and face Miami in the first round.
4)Brooklyn Nets:
Record: 30-34 SU, 31-33 ATS, 31-32-1 O/U, 20-21 EC
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (100-1); East Finals (51-1)
Eastern Conference Ranking: 7th a 1/2 game behind Orlando and six games ahead of 9th place Washington
Recap:
Where do we start? Let's begin with Kyrie Irving, who helped bring Kevin Durant here as a free agent. Durant wasn't going to play this season due to an Achilles injury he suffered in the NBA Finals last June. But with Irving, you would think that an emerging Nets' team would be a lot better than four games under .500. Irving (27.4ppg, 6.4apg) wound up playing just 20 games this season before undergoing shoulder surgery. He's not expected to play when the season resumes. If he returns, he'll be playing for interim coach Jacque Vaughn since Kenny Atkinson was fired on March 9. Atkinson rarely had a full squad all year as Caris LeVert (17.7ppg, 4.1apg) missed 25 games due to a thumb injury. LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie (20.6ppg, 6.8apg) and Irving shared the court for a total of 67 minutes.
So, while the Nets have underachieved-there's a reason. Defensively, they allow 111.4 points per game (18th), but allow teams to shoot just 44.2% from the field (5th) and 35% (11th) from beyond the arc. They average 110.8 points per game (18th) on 44.4% shooting (26th) and 34% from beyond the arc (26th). So offense has been the big issue for the Nets. They rank 25th in TS% (true shooting) and 23rd in EFG% (efficient). Irving was a star amongst role players. Joe Harris (13.9ppg, 41.2% 3pt) is a three-point shooting specialist, while Garrett Temple (10.3ppg) is the scrappy wing defender. They do have legit big men in DeAndre Jordan (8.3ppg, 10rpg) and Jarrett Allen (10.6ppg, 9.5rpg). Neither can really shoot, but can rebound and protect the rim. This is a very mediocre team but with a healthy LeVert along with Dinwiddie, Harris and Taurean Prince (12.1ppg), they can at least make the playoffs and remain in the seventh seed.
Key injuries: Durant (Achilles), Irving (shoulder).
Strengths: Rebounding. This is a team that while hit the glass. They rank second with 48.5 rebounds per game and 12th in rebounding percentage.
Weaknesses: They lack star power. They have a collection of role players and an interim coach heading into the playoffs.
Gambling outlook: They may not win a lot, but they can cover. They've won four of their last five games and that included a 104-102 road win over the Lakers on March 10. This is a scrappy team that squads can't look past. Don't see them doing much past making the playoffs, but they may be happier playing for Vaughn than Atkinson.
5)New York Knicks
Record: 21-45 SU, 35-30-1 ATS, 31-34-1 O/U, 15-28 EC
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (n/a); East Finals (n/a)
Eastern Conference Ranking: 12th, 9.5 games out of the 8th spot.
Recap:
Hey, it's another season of disappointing results for the Knicks. The reality that this might be a rough season began in last year's Draft Lottery when New York missed out on Ja Morant and Zion Williamson and wound up with R.J. Barrett. The rookie from Duke is having a solid season, averaging 14.3 points on 40.2% shooting (32% 3pt). So he has a ways to go as a shooter and doesn't appear to be a franchise player like Morant and Zion. After missing out on the top two picks, the Knicks decided to go power forward crazy in free agency and wound up with Julius Randle (19.5ppg, 9.7rpg, 27.7 3pt), Bobby Portis (10.1ppg, 5.1rpg) and Taj Gibson (6.1ppg, 4.3rpg). There's nothing like picking up players who are limited defensively and are not very good shooters from long range.
To make matters worse, the Knicks don't appear to have a lot of young talent that will change the franchise around. New coach Mike Miller (who took over for David Fizdale) should just play the youngsters in Kevin Knox (6.3ppg, 32.7% 3pt, 35.9% FG), Allonzo Trier (6.5ppg, 48.1% FG, 35.8% 3pt), Dennis Smith Jr. (5.5ppg) and Frank Nkiltoina (6.3ppg, 3.0apg, 32.1% 3pt). Offensively, this team is atrocious, averaging 105.8 points per game (29th) on 44.7% shooting (24th) and 33.7% from long range (27th). They also rank last in the league in free throw shooting (69.4%). Defensively, they rank 29th on three-point shooting (38.1%). They are more respectable in terms of defensive field goal percentage at 46.3% (18th).
Key injuries: none.
Strengths: Hey, no key injuries! Elfrid Payton is a bright spot, averaging 7.2 assists on 43.9% shooting, but is making just 20.3% of his three-point attempts. Randle can score and rebound. At least got a late first-round pick for Marcus Morris from the LA Clippers.
Weaknesses: Everything, especially on the offensive end.
Gambling Outlook: It might be best betting on where the Knicks end up drafting, though who knows if and when there will be a lottery. The good news is that they've covered five of their last seven games. They faced Chicago, Atlanta, Washington and Detroit in that span, but also covered against Houston and Utah, so there's that.
