NBA Recap: Northwest Division
NBA Recap: Western Conference
We're now to the Western Conference of the NBA in our recap of teams that played from 62-67 games before the league halted play on March 11 after Utah center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19. We'll analyze each team by division in the NBA and list them in order of their SU record. But we're also going to look at some of the handicapping stats, trends and angles, because once the NBA returns, you'll need a refresher course on how each team has fared overall after the stoppage is over.
Northwest Division:
1)Denver Nuggets
Record: 43-22 SU, 29-32-4 ATS, 30-34-1 O/U, 26-13 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (20-1), West Finals (10-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 3rd (1.5 games behind the Clippers for 2nd; 1.5 games ahead of Utah)
Recap:
The Nuggets are one of those teams that seem to be an afterthought, even though they are a very good club. That might be because their best player is a 7-foot, 285-pound unathletic but super skilled center in Nikola Jokic. The 25-year old star big man averages 20.2 points, 10.2 rebounds and 6.9 assists, though his numbers are slightly down from last season. What Denver has is an identity crisis and a lack of a true superstar. Jokic is not a great defender, but is better than advertised. The problem is that he's not Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis or Rudy Gobert when it comes to protecting the rim.
As a whole, Denver is a pretty good defensive team, holding opponents to just 107.4 points per game (8th) on 45.9% shooting (14th) and 34.6% from beyond the arc (8th). On offense, they average 110.4 points per game on 47.1% shooting (6th) and 35.8% from beyond the arc (15th).
The backcourt has one of the more underrated players in the game in Jamal Murray, who averages 18.8 points per game and 4.8 assists on 45.5% shooting (34.5% 3pt) and 89.3% from the line. He's not a true point guard because Jokic is such a good passer. Garry Harris (6-4, 210) is the shooting guard, but averages just 10.4 points per game on 42% (33.3% 3pt) shooting. He's not a great scorer, but is a solid defender. They have a high-scoring small forward in Will Barton (15.1ppg, 37.5% 3pt) and Paul Millsap (12ppg, 5.9rpg), who is in decline but still pretty productive. Off the bench, Jerami Grant (11.6ppg) provides athleticism, defense and a pretty good three-point shot (40%).
Key injuries: none.
Strengths: Jokic is an incredible passer and just a mountain of a man. That pure size makes up for some of his lack of quickness, but he is agile for his size. Good passing team.
Weaknesses: Let's face it, Denver is a quality team, but they don't have the star power of the Lakers, Clippers or even Houston. They are also barely hanging on in the Northwest Division over Utah and Oklahoma City. Despite all that, they are 10-1 in the division and Utah is just 5-5.
Gambling Outlook: It's understandable to be skeptical over the Nuggets against the spread. They are three games under .500 against the spread. Before the league stopped, Denver had covered in just one of their last five games. That's not to disrespect Denver, but as a covering team, don't trust them, especially on the road (18-14 SU).
2)Utah Jazz:
Record: 41-23 SU, 30-32-2 ATS, 33-31 O/U, 21-16 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (35-1), West Finals (17-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 4th (1.5 games behind Denver for third place, 1 game ahead of OKC and Houston)
Recap:
Unfortunately, Utah will be known as the reason the league halted, thanks to Rudy Gobert contracting COVID-19 and apparently spreading it to Donovan Mitchell and Emmanuel Mudiay Both players are expected to recover and the league would have stopped at some point. Both players are also stars for a team that had won five of their last six games before the league stoppage. The Jazz also added Mike Conley last summer from Memphis in a deal along with Bojan Bogdanovich from Indiana. In late December, they traded Dante Exum for Jordan Clarkson of Cleveland.
All those additions added offensive firepower to the team, but something is still missing. Maybe it's a power forward where Royce O'Neal (6.3ppg, 5.3rpg) is a 6-4, 225-pound small forward, who is mainly a role player. Maybe it's the fact that small forward Joe Ingles (9.8ppg, 5.2apg, 39.7 3pt) has had his struggles. But Mitchell is a player who can take them to the next level. He's averaging 24.2 points per game on 45.3% shooting (36.4%), while Bogdanovich adds 20.2 points on 41.4% three-point shooting. Add Gobert (15.1ppg, 13.7rppg, 2.0bpg) in the middle, blocking shots and rebounding, the Jazz are a very dangerous team.
The Jazz allow 107.9 points per game (9th) on 45.2% shooting (11th) and 35.1% three-point shooting (12th). They rank 4th in field goal shooting (47.5%) and second in three-point shooting (38.3%). They also rank fourth in rebounding percentage.
Key Injuries:
None.
Strengths: Gobert in the middle is not only a key component to their defense, but on the boards as well. Mitchell and Conley (13.8ppg, 4.3apg, 37.6% 3pt) are a dynamic backcourt. Bogdanovic is a tremendous perimeter shooter and Clarkson brings in scoring off the bench.
Weaknesses: This is a strange team in terms of balance. Mitchell is a phenomenal athlete, but Bogdanovich and Gobert are not going to love a transition game. Fortunately, the playoffs is usually a halfcourt game. Conley has missed 23 games due to injuries. He's not the same player he was in Memphis at 33.
Gambling Outlook: Is Utah a great team? Could the overtake the Lakers or Clippers as the top squad in the West? Possibly in the playoffs. They were playing very well at the end of the season before it was cut short. However, they covered just twice in their last 10 games. Going against this team as a favorite is usually a good idea. In the playoffs, they might be a dog, so that's a different story.
3)Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 40-24 SU, 30-32-2 ATS, 30-33-1 O/U, 25-15 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (100-1), West Finals (50-1-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 5th (one game behind 4th place Utah, tied with Houston)
Recap:
Let's be honest. With Russell Westbrook gone to Houston and Paul George moving to the Clippers, who thought that the Thunder would be 40-24 after 64 games? Who thought Chris Paul would still be with the team? Kudos to Paul for turning into his old self as a player and Billy Donovan coaching this team up. Before the league stopped on March 11, the Thunder were supposed to play Utah on that date from Salt Lake City when Rudy Gobert had tested positive for the COVID-19. So the Thunder had not played since March 8, but had won three straight games. However, they were obliterated by the Clippers by 14 at home and Milwaukee 133-86 on the road.
The key has been Paul, who shot just 41.9% from the field last season with Houston and is shooting 48.9% with the Thunder, 36.2% from beyond the arc and is averaging 17.7 points and 6.8 assists. At 34, he's different than Westbrook, but he still needs the ball and didn't have as much of a chance in Houston with James Harden hogging it. The other key is 21-year old guard Shay Gilgeous-Alexander (19.3ppg, 6.1rpg), who should be a leading candidate for Most Improved Player. He was involved in the George trade along with Danilo Gallinari (19.2ppg, 5.5rpg, 40.9% 3pt), who has had a resurgence, though a big part of it is him staying relatively healthy (55 games). They also have the size with 7-0 Steven Adams (10.9ppg, 9.4rpg) and 6-11 Nerlens Noel (7.7ppg, 4.9rpg, 1.5bpg) off the bench.
Speaking of bench, the Thunder have a strong one led by Noel and 6-1 point guard Denis Schroder, who is averaging 19.0 points and 4.1 assists on 38.1% 3pt shooting.
Key Injuries: none.
Strengths: Defense. A Donovan team will usually defend every game. They aren't quite as strong as some teams allowing 45.6% from the field (13th), but they are excellent defending the three-point shot (34.4%). On offense, they rank fifth in field goal percentage (47.3%). Paul, even though he has so many playoff issues, has basically put this team on his back.
Weaknesses: They are not a great three-point shooting team (35.5%) other than Gallinari. Rebounding. They rank just 20th in rebounding percentage and 26th in rebounds per game.
4)Portland Trailblazers
Record: 29-37 SU, 27-37-2 ATS, 37-29 O/U, 16-26 Western Conference.
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (60-1), West Finals (30-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 9th (3.5 games behind Memphis)
Recap:
Portland has had a very disappointing regular season and it appears as though they will be on the outside looking in. That's despite having one of the best backcourts in the game. But big guys still matter and not having Jusuf Nurkic (7-0, 290) for the entire season after he suffered a gruesome leg injury last season has been devastating. Nurkic is just 25 and was close to becoming an elite center last season, averaging 15.6 points and 10.4 rebounds with 3.2 assists. What makes little sense is that the Trail Blazers keep adding old veterans. Hassan Whiteside (7-0, 265) can give you great numbers at 16.3 points, 14.2 rebounds and 3.1 blocks. He's definitely a plus on the defensive side and was very solid over his last 10 games, becoming a double-double machine.
So if Whiteside was a nice addition for Nurkic, why did the Blazers struggle? They also added aging Carmelo Anthony and Trevor Ariza to the lineup, which again begs the question, why? This is not a team headed to the NBA Finals. Losing small forward Rodney Hood (11ppg) to an Achilles' injury in early December was one of the reasons they added Anthony. Damian Lillard (28.9ppg, 7.8apg, 39.4% 3pt) and C.J. McCollum (22.5ppg, 4.3apg, 38% 3pt) have carried this team for awhile now, but both are approaching 30 and the team appears to be stuck in mud.
Defensively, the Blazers have some issues allowing 115.2 points per game (26th), 45.1% shooting (10th) and 37.7% three-point shooting (27th). On offense, they have no issues shooting the three (37.2% 4th) and average 113.6 points per game.
Key injuries: Jusuf Nurkic (leg) was close to returning before the league halting play. Rodney Hood (Achilles) is out.
Strengths: Strong backcourt. Age and experience. So if they made the playoffs, they would have a slight advantage there.
Weaknesses: Defense and rebounding. Despite having Whiteside, Portland ranks 21st in rebounding percentage and 27th in defensive rebounding percentage. Not a lot of youth in the rotation, so where is the future?
Gambling Outlook: Portland is playing a lot of veterans, so it appears they are going to attempt to make the playoffs, assuming it returns with the regular season left. They did cover four of their last seven, but they were playing bottom feeders in Phoenix twice, Sacramento, Washington, Orland and Atlanta.
5)Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 19-45 SU, 23-39-2 ATS, 36-28 O/U, 9-30 Western Conference.
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (n/a), West Finals (n/a)
Western Conference Ranking: 4th (2 games ahead of Indiana and Philadelphia; 2.5 games behind Boston)
Recap:
What has happened to this franchise? The team that used to have Kevin Garnett, Kevin Love, Stephon Marbury and now Karl-Anthony Towns. One of the best young big men in the game averages 26.5 points and 10.8 rebounds, but his team has won 19 games. Part of the problem is that Towns has played in just 35 games. He missed 15 games in December due to a sprained knee and right before the NBA stopped play, he fractured his wrist.
This team is basically going through a rebuild now. Josh Okogie (8.6ppg) and Towns are the only players who were on the team now that were members last season. The T-Wolves finally moved wing Andrew Wiggins and acquired D'Angelo Russell. But also had to give up a 2021 protected first-round pick and 2021 second-rounder to Golden State. They've added a bunch of players, but the only thing that matters is a 2020 pick from the Nets and the 23-year old Russell, who is now a building block of the franchise. Russell averages 23.1 points and 6.3 assists. They also added Juancho Hernangomez, who was getting a lot of time with Towns out. He put up 18 points and 10 rebounds against Houston on March 10 and had averaged 13 points and 9 rebounds over his last 9 games.
Defense has been an issue even with Towns on the floor. The T-Wolves are allowing 117.5 points per game (28th) on 47.7% shooting (25th) and 36.3% 3pt shooting (20th). Offensively, they average 113.3 points per game (9th), but shoot just 44.1% (28th) and 33.6% from beyond the arc (28th).
Key Injuries: Karl-Anthony Towns (wrist) should return after the hiatus. Though Towns is also dealing with the virus affecting his parents.
Strengths: Russell and Towns. This is just a team in transition right now and need to see if some guys are worth keeping or not.
Weaknesses: They need to find players that can defend. Towns is not in the mold, so he needs help. He can also get better as a defender, even if he's not a rim protector.
Gambling outlook: Minnesota played hard in their last 10 games. They covered three of five games and they did beat Chicago, so there's that along with an upset over Miami on Feb. 26. If Towns returns, it will be interesting to see who they play aside from Russell, or do they rest their only two stars and just look at the youngsters. In that respect, it could get very ugly.
