NBA Recap: Southwest Division
We're now to the Western Conference of the NBA in our recap of teams that played from 62-67 games before the league halted play on March 11 after Utah center Rudy Gobert tested positive for COVID-19. We'll analyze each team by division in the NBA and list them in order of their SU record. But we're also going to look at some of the handicapping stats, trends and angles, because once the NBA returns, you'll need a refresher course on how each team has fared overall after the stoppage is over.
Southwest Division:
1)Houston Rockets
Record: 40-24 SU, 29-35 ATS, 28-36 O/U, 25-17 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (16-1), West Finals (8-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 6th (tied with Oklahoma City; one game behind Utah)
Recap:
Houston has had quite a solid season thus far, but even though they lead the Southwest Division, they are in 6th place in the West by record. Before the league stopped, the Rockets were in a slump, having lost four of their last five games, including an embarrassing defeat at the Knicks as a 10-point favorite. James Harden has kept his All-Star form with 34.4 points per game, 7.4 assists and 1.7 steals on 43.5% shooting and 35.2% from beyond the arc. Harden also plays 36.7 minutes per game and has played in 61 of their 64 games, so he doesn't take games for load management. He's done that with Russell Westbrook averaging 27.5 points per game and 7.0 assists in 53 games, so for the most part, Harden and Westbrook have been able to co-exist, even though their roles were different when he both played with the Thunder.
Houston traded away center Clint Capela, so they are basically playing five guards with no big man. In their last contest against Minnesota on March 10, a 117-11 victor, Mike D'Antoni started Robert Covington at center. Covington is a 6-7, 210-pound small forward, who averages 12.8 points and 6.4 rebounds. So when you give up that kind of height, you are going to lose the battle of the boards, Houston ranks 24th in rebounding percentage and 28th in rebounds allowed per game.
On the season, the Rockets rank 22nd in points allowed per game (114.4), 15th in field goal percentage defense (46.1%) and 10th in three-point defense (34.8%). On offense, Eric Gordon, Westbrook, Covington and Harden can all jack up threes, but they are shooting just 34.8% from beyond the arc (23rd) as a team. They aren't getting a lot of easy buckets, so making 45.4% from the field (22nd), isn't the greatest percentage either.
Key injuries: none.
Strengths: Putting Covington at center means that you are going to have mismatches with bigger teams on the offensive end. Centers can't cover Covington or 6-5 P.J. Tucker, who is a rebounding machine at 245 pounds. Adding Jeff Green (6-8, 235) gives the Rockets a little more size in the paint and he knows how to defend bigger players. Harden is always an MVP candidate and Westbrook has played well alongside him.
Weaknesses: Even though they lead the league in three-point attempts, they don't lead in makes (Dallas). So they will jack up three and "live by the three, die by the three.". Rebounding will always be a problem when you start a small lineup.
Gambling Outlook: The small lineup is not exactly solving the problem. Not only is Houston in a slump, but the Rockets have lost six straight against the spread and seven of eight before the league was postponed. The Rockets are a solid team, but they don't scare people in the postseason. Harden doesn't exactly have a sterling reputation in the playoffs.
2)Dallas Mavericks:
Record: 40-27 SU, 35-29 ATS, 40-27 O/U, 25-15 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (35-1), West Finals (17-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 7th (1.5 games behind Houston and OKC for 5th place)
Recap:
Dallas could easily be in first place in the Southwest Division had Luka Doncic (54 games) and Kristaps Porzingis (51 games) not missed double-digit games due to injuries. In late January, the Mavs lost Dwight Powell (6-10, 240) to an Achilles injury and he's out for a year. He supplied some much-needed defense and rebounding, while shooting 63.8% from the field. Doncic is just a great talent, who has gone from Rookie of the Year to MVP candidate. The MVP award is not going to happen this year due to his injuries and Dallas' record, but he should win it in the future. Doncic is averaging 28.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 8.7 assists on 46.1% shooting (31.8% 3pt). His defense and three-point shooting need work, but at 6-7, 230 and at just 21, he's going to get better. They also lost guard Jalen Brunson (8.2ppg, 3.3apg) to a shoulder injury in late February. He underwent surgery and is out indefinitely.
Porzingis is averaging 19.2 points per game on 42% shooting (34.9% 3pt) with 9.5 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game. The shooting percentages are down, though he wasn't a great shooter with the Knicks. At 7-3, you'd like to see him be more effective on the blocks. Tim Hardaway Jr. is another former Knicks' player, who averages 15.8 points on 40.7% from beyond the arc.
Defense has improved for the Mavs, but to get to the next level, they will need to improve on that end. They allow 110.3 points per game (15th), 45.4% shooting (12th) and 34.5% from beyond the arc (7th). On offense, the Mavs shoot it well, averaging 46.2% from the field (13th) and 36.9% (8th) from beyond the arc. The Mavs rank 11th in rebounding percentage and 15th in defensive rebounding percentage.
Key Injuries: F Dwight Powell (Achilles) is out for the year. G Jalen Brunson (shoulder surgery) is out indefinitely.
Strengths: Size. Porzingis is 7-3, Doncic is a 6-7 point guard, F Maxi Kleber (9.2ppg) is 6-10, Boban Marjanovic (6.4ppg, 4.3rpg) is 7-4, 290 and Willie Cauley-Stein (7.2ppg, 5.8rpg) is 7-0, 240. They are the anti-Houston Rockets. Even with the injuries, they are pretty deep. This is a good shooting team from the perimeter and Doncic is a superstar.
Weaknesses: They are not very athletic. Can they match up with Houston when they go really small? The last time they played the Rockets was on Jan. 31 and they fell 128-121, though Doncic didn't play. Houston went super-small with P.J. Tucker at center and Porizingis went for 35 points and 13 rebounds. Doncic is great but he needs a little more help. The loss of Powell hurts the defensive end.
Gambling Outlook:
Dallas covered three of their last five games. Not going to buy into this team just yet. They appear to be a year or two away although their 25-15 conference record is impressive. They just aren't the Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Denver, Utah or even Oklahoma City. Bet with caution.
3)Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 32-33 SU, 34-30-1 ATS, 30-35 O/U, 19-22 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (n/a), West Finals (250-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 7th (1.5 games behind Houston and OKC for 5th place)
Recap:
The future is now for Memphis. What a first season for Ja Morant, a lock for Rookie of the Year (considering Zion Williamson has missed most of the season). He's led a young squad to the last playoff spot in the West, which is an accomplishment, unlike the East. Morant is averaging 17.6 points per game on 49.1% shooting (36.7% 3pt) with 6.9 assists. He was supposed to be too think at 6-3, 175 and not a good enough shooter. His athleticism is off the charts and he's become a decent shooter. He's had some help on the perimeter thanks to the emergence of Dillon Brooks (6-7, 225), a young wing who has exploded for 15.7 points on 40.2% shooting and 36.9% from beyond the arc. Power forward Jordan Jackson (6-11, 240) has also improved in his third season, averaging 16.9 points, but just 4.7 rebounds on 46.9% shooting and 39.7% from beyond the arc. Jackson has also missed 10 games due to injuries this season.
Jackson can play some center, though Jonas Valanciunas (6-11, 265) has been pretty steady with 14.9 points per game and 11.2 rebounds. He can also shoot the three (36.7%), something he showed a bit when he was in Toronto. It seems like Valanciunas has been around forever, but he's just 27. Morant has some athletic help defensively led by rookie Brandon Clarke (12ppg, 5.8rpg), a phenomenal athlete and defender at 6-8, 215, who has shown some ability to hit threes (21 of 52). Justise Winslow was added from Miami. He's played in just 10 games due to a back injury, but in the future, he should be a great addition.
Offensively, the Grizzlies still need some work on their three-point shooting, which ranks 21st (35.2%) in the NBA. They shoot 47% (7th) and 112.6 points per game (13th). On defense, they allow 113.7 points per game (20th), 45% from the field (9th) and 36.3% (22nd) from beyond the arc.
Key Injuries: Justise Winslow (back) is questionable.
Strengths: This is a pretty good rebounding team. They rank 9th in rebounding percentage and 13th in defensive rebounding percentage. Morant and Clarke are incredible athletes and pretty skilled. Brooks can be explosive offensively.
Weaknesses: With all this young talent, the Grizz are inconsistent. They finished the regular season (before it halted), losing two of three games, after winning three straight. Youth can be a strength, but also a weakness, especially in the playoffs. They are 1-3 against the Lakers this season and that's who they are likely to face in the first round of the playoffs. If they win one game, that would be a bonus.
Gambling Outlook: One thing that stands out about the Grizzlies is that they've gone under in six of their last seven games and eight of 10. They've covered four of their last six games and went 2-2 ATS against the Lakers. It's hard not to love the potential of this team, but they don't have much to play for if the regular season continues. Once they lock up the eighth seed, they could rest Morant.
4)New Orleans Pelicans
Record: 28-36 SU, 33-29-2 ATS, 36-28 O/U, 17-25 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (60-1), West Finals (30-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 10th (one game behind 9th place Portland, 4.5 games behind 8th place Memphis)
Recap:
There is BZ and AZ. That's before Zion Williamson and after Zion Williamson. The 6-6, 284-pound power forward from Duke finally started playing on Jan. 22 due to a knee injury. The Pelicans had actually won three of four and five of seven before getting Williamson back. They were 12 games below .500 and now eight games below. They still likely won't make the playoffs, but had Williamson played the entire season, they probably would have been a lock for eighth or seventh place. He's averaging 23.6 points and 6.8 rebounds in 19 games. He's shooting 58.9% from the field and 46.2% (6-13) from beyond the arc. His weaknesses are pretty obvious right now and that includes free throw shooting (64.5%), turnovers (51) and defense. But that's not bad for a rookie, who has missed of the season and is just 19. The sky is the limit because the game has changed where he can play power forward at 6-6 (ala Charles Barkley), but still be athletic and can take guys to the perimeter.
This was not a bad team without him in terms of talent. They have a young nucleus and just need to play together. Brandon Ingram 24.3ppg, 6.3rpg, 4.3 apg, 38.7% 3pt) and Lonzo Ball (12.4ppg, 7apg, 38.3% 3pt) have shown that the Anthony Davis trade can pay off at least in the present. As good as Williamson is, they still miss Davis' 6-11 size and rim protection. Derrick Favors (6-9, 265) adds 9.2 points and 9.9 rebounds, but is not an offensive talent like Davis. Not even close.
The Pels had won two straight, but had lost three straight before that. Speaking of defense, New Orleans allows 117 points per game (27th) on 46.5% shooting (19th) and 35.5% three-point shooting (17th). Offensively, they are averaging 116.2 points per game (4th) on 46.2% shooting (14th) and 37.2% three-point shooting (5th).
Key Injuries: Just nagging injuries.
Strengths: Williamson and Ingram will be a very tough forward combination to contain. Ball is the read deal. He may not become a big scorer, but he's a big point guard that can defend and dishes it well. Jrue Holiday (19.6ppg, 6.9apg) is another point guard, who can take pressure off of Ball and is a big-time scorer.
Weaknesses: Defense. Young squads that are trying to gell often struggle on the defensive end. Zion is so good on the offensive end, that the biggest challenge will just to be competent.
Gambling Outlook: I think this team could be absolutely scary coming out of the break. Getting J.J. Redick (hamstring) back can only help a young team that could use another perimeter shooter. You can't double Williamson when Redick is on the floor. Do they go for the last playoff spot? There's nothing wrong with getting some experience in the postseason. Of course, Ball and Ingram wouldn't mind playing their old team again.
5)San Antonio Spurs
Record:27-36 SU, 25-37-1 ATS, 38-24-1 O/U, 15-21 Western Conference
Odds from Vegas Insider: NBA Finals (n/a), West Finals (500-1)
Western Conference Ranking: 12th (5 games behind final playoff spot).
Recap:
The Spurs are on the outside looking in and it's tough to see them go through this. But this should have been predictable. There's no more Tony Parker, Tim Duncan or Manu Ginobili to save them. The Spurs went into this break with a 119-109 win over Dallas, that broke a four-game losing streak. The problem for San Antonio starts on the defensive end. They rank 24th in points per game allowed (114.9ppg), 21st in field goal percentage defense (46.9%) and 26th in three-point defense (37.6%). They just don't have a lot of defensive stoppers on this squad. LaMarcus Aldridge ranks second on the team in scoring at 18.9 points and 7.4 rebounds, but he's become a statue on defense. That's understandable at 34, though he does average 1.6 blocks per game. He shoots 38.% from long range and 49.3% from the field, but has missed 10 games this season.
DeMar DeRozan leads the Spurs with 22.2 points per game, adding 5.6 assists and 5.6 rebounds on 52.6% shooting. But DeRozan (26.7%) has never been much of a three-point threat. Their best three-point shooter is Marco Belinelli (58ppg, 39%), another aging player at 34. The Spurs desperately need an infusion of youth. Dejounte Murray (10.7ppg, 5.8rpg, 4.1apg) has shown flashes, but is wildly inconsistent. Derrick White (10.4pg) and Bryn Forbes (11.2ppg) are average guards. They just don't move the needle, even though each has shown flashes.
Offensively, the Spurs are pretty good, averaging 113.2 points per game (10th) on 47% shooting (8th) and 37.1% (7th) from beyond the arc.
Key injuries: none.
Strengths: Depth. They may not have a ton of stars, but they have a lot of similar players in Forbes, White, Patty Mills and Murray. All pretty good players, but not guys that scare other teams. Aldridge is still one of those guys and so is DeRozan.
Weaknesses: Defense is just abysmal for a Gregg Popovich-coached team. Maybe 6-5 rookie wing Lonnie Walker (53 games) will become a solid defender down the line. They need a post player that can protect the rim. They need stars and now that they will be in the lottery, they'll have a chance to draft one.
Gambling Outlook: Bad. They covered just one game in their last eight. If basketball returns, they'll probably just experiment with younger players and maybe Aldridge and DeRozan play less minutes. They should really start a rebuild.
