New York Liberty vs. Phoenix Mercury Preview, Prediction and Odds - 6/13/21
It’s an interconference clash on the parquet floor as a pair of WNBA squads lock up in the Valley of the Sun. The New York Liberty are on the road as they travel to face the Phoenix Mercury Sunday evening. New York was knocked off 85-64 on the road by Connecticut last Saturday in their most recent contest. Phoenix closed out a two-game home set with Dallas Friday night and was swept as they dropped a 77-59 decision. The Mercury have won four straight meetings and eight of the last 10 in the series. That included a pair of meetings in the bubble, capped by an 83-67 win as the “home” team in the most recent contest on September 5, 2020.
New York Liberty Hoping to Regroup
New York was hammered by Connecticut on the road in their most recent contest as they suffered their third straight loss after a 5-1 start. The Liberty dropped to 5-4 on the year and entered Saturday holding the fourth seed in the WNBA playoff picture. Against Connecticut, New York started slowly, regrouped in the second quarter and then completely fell apart after that. The Liberty trailed by five after the opening quarter and by as many as eight in the second quarter only to rally to lead by four with 3:39 to play in the first half. New York gave up a 12-2 run the rest of the half to trail by six at intermission, then gave up a 9-0 run to start the second half, leaving them in a 52-37 hole with 7:01 to play in the third quarter. The Liberty couldn’t get closer than nine the rest of the way to wind up with the loss. New York shot 43.6% from the field, including 11 of 27 from three-point range, and were dominated 38-22 on the glass. Rebecca Allen led the Liberty with 14 points in the loss.
The Liberty comes into this contest 6th in the league in scoring offense with an average of 81.7 points per game. New York is 11th in rebounding (33.7 boards a night) and second with 21.2 assists per contest. The Liberty ranks 10th in the league in scoring defense by allowing 84.8 points per game. Betnijah Laney leads the Liberty with 20.8 points plus 4.9 assists a night this season. Sabrina Ionescu (13.7 points, 6.4 rebounds, 7.1 assists) and Michaela Onyenwere (11.4 points, 3.1 boards) are also capable scoring options. Sami Whitcomb (10.6 points, 5.3 boards), Natasha Howard (14.5 points), Kylee Shook, Rebecca Allen, Jazmine Jones, Reshanda Gray and DiDi Richards are key contributors for coach Walt Hopkins. New York is 3rd in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.8% from the floor as a team. The Liberty is leading the league in made threes per game (11.4) while ranking first in three-point shooting at 41.4%. New York is 4th in free throw percentage as they cash in 82.2% of their chances at the stripe. Howard is expected to miss four to six weeks with a sprained MCL sustained May 24 against Dallas.
Phoenix Mercury Looking to Defend Home Floor
Phoenix dropped their second straight after a three-game win streak as they were completely shut down offensively by Dallas in the second game of their two-game set. The Mercury fell to 5-5 on the season and entered Saturday holding the sixth seed in the WNBA playoff picture. On Friday night, Phoenix never led in the game, trailing by as many as 14 in the opening quarter and by 11 after one quarter. The Mercury climbed to within three with 1:23 to play in the first half only to give up a 12-0 run spanning both halves to trail 48-33 just over two minutes into the third quarter. Phoenix couldn’t get closer than nine after that as their shots simply weren’t falling. The Mercury shot 34.9% from the field, including a dismal three of 20 from three-point range, and were beaten 40-29 on the glass. Brittney Griner led Phoenix with 19 points plus six boards in the loss.
The Mercury are ninth in the league in scoring offense as they put up an average of 78.2 points per game. Phoenix is fifth in rebounding (35.8 rebounds) per contest and stand fifth in the league by handing out 19.7 assists a night. The Mercury are fifth in the league in scoring defense as they give up an average of 80.4 points per game. Skylar Diggins-Smith is leading the Mercury in scoring with 18.8 points plus 5.2 assists a night. Brittney Griner (18.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.5 blocks), Diana Taurasi (15.8 points, 3.8 assists) and Brianna Turner (6.9 points, 8.2 rebounds) are solid scoring options. Kia Nurse (11.1 points), Kia Vaughn, Megan Walker, Sophie Cunningham, Shey Peddy, Alanna Smith and Cierra Burdick are other role players for coach Sandy Brondello. Phoenix is fifth in the league in field goal percentage as they shoot 43.6% as a team from the floor. The Mercury is ninth in three-pointers per game (6.2 per game) and 11th in three-point shooting (29.4%) this season. Phoenix is 10th in the WNBA in free throw shooting as they cash in 75.3% of their chances on the year. Taurasi was announced to have suffered a fractured sternum that she sustained May 16 against the Sun and is out until late June. She is expected to miss at least four weeks.
Pick: Phoenix Mercury -6.5
This goes back to something we have talked about several times when it comes to the Liberty: their inability to beat good teams. New York beat Indiana (1-10) twice along with single wins over Chicago (3-7), Dallas (5-5) and Minnesota (3-5) on the year. When it comes to playing better teams, they were whipped by 21 by the Sun and by 12 by the Aces. That doesn’t even cover a three-point loss to the up-and-down Dream or a 29-point pasting by the Mystics. Phoenix has had their issues without Taurasi but they are at home here and they have some capable veterans that can step up. We know the Mercury can beat good teams: until New York proves they can accomplish that feat, you have to fade them accordingly.
Total: Under 161
New York has had plenty of inconsistencies on the defensive end of the floor and that could prove to be a boost to a Mercury team that has had their struggles on the offensive end this season. The Liberty has seen the over hit in six of their nine games this season. On the other side, Phoenix has played some tough defense, which has helped the under go 6-3-1 in their contests. The Mercury leads the league in field goal percentage defense (39.5%) and they are fifth in three-point field goal percentage defense (31.5%) this season. We’ve seen the under hit in four of the last five meetings and seven of the last nine matchups between the teams. When New York struggles shooting the ball, this one falls short of the mark.
