NFL Preview 2024: AFC Edition
NFL Preview 2024: AFC Edition
Last season ended the same as 2022 did, with the Kansas City Chiefs hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. The Chiefs are the odds-on favorites to make it three straight titles, which would be an NFL first in the Super Bowl era. Some teams have other ideas, however. Let's take a look at this year’s win totals in the AFC. Next week, we will take a look at the win totals for the NFC.
American Football Conference
AFC East
Buffalo Bills (9.5 wins) - The Bills are built differently this year with a strong running game and a passing game that will likely run through their tight ends. The loss of MLB Milano for the season is a painful one but they will still be the team to beat in an overrated AFC East Division. This could be the year that Allen breaks through with an MVP award. Win Total - Over and they’ll win another division title.
Miami Dolphins (9.5 wins) - The Dolphins have made back-to-back appearances in the playoffs but have folded each time they faced a game in adverse conditions. They are built to play fast and in perfect weather. Did I mention they play in the AFC East? I’d be a little concerned with the backfield given the age of Raheem Mostert and the injury-prone nature of De’Von Achane. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are stellar but Odell Beckham Jr. isn’t the same player he was a few years ago. This defense has holes and I don’t trust a team that can’t win in poor weather. Win Total - Under, I think the Fins miss the playoffs.
New England Patriots (4.5 wins) - This is the first year of a new era with Jerrod Mayo at the helm and potentially rookie QB Drake Maye under center. The team’s offensive line is atrocious and they lack playmakers around Maye. The defense is solid but they’ll be under fire all year. The Pats will be looking at a top-five pick again. Win Total: Under, this team needs draft capital and that is what they’ll get.
New York Jets (10.5) - The Jets had a good defense last year but were painfully inconsistent on offense. Rodgers makes them better but how much better at his age and coming off an achilles injury? I’m having vibes of Dan Marino toward the end of his career after he suffered a similar injury. There’ll be moments that Rodgers looks like his MVP self of years past but too many moments that he doesn’t. Win Total: Under, I see the Jets getting right to 10 wins and fighting for a playoff spot.
Predicted Finish: 1. Buffalo Bills 2. New York Jets 3. Miami Dolphins and 4. New England Patriots
AFC Central
Baltimore Ravens (10.5 wins) - Lamar Jackson rewarded the Ravens’ faith in him with an MVP season. He has more weapons to get down the field but can this team run the ball as effectively with an older Derrick Henry in the backfield as the lead back? This is a tricky win total for a team that I think takes a minor step back but still earns a playoff spot. Win Total: Over, the Ravens will get to 11 wins but I don’t think they’ll make it to back-to-back division titles.
Cincinnati Bengals (10.5 wins) - Joe Burrow is back and healthy and still has his top two WR threats and a solid offensive line. The Bengals defense has looked very good this offseason and they’ll hold down the forte while Burrow gets back to form. Win Total: Over, I like the Bengals to grab the division title this season and ride the arm of Burrow into the playoffs.
Cleveland Browns (8.5 wins) - The Browns’ running game is in a state of flux with Nick Chubb still recovering from his devastating knee injury from last season. They dangled Amari Cooper in a bid to get WR Aiyuk and now he’s unhappy, and QB DeShaun Watson is a huge question mark after an injury-filled 2023. They still have a great defense but this team looks like one that will step back from their playoff appearance last year. Win Total: Under, The Browns mortgaged the future to get Watson and he’s been a bust so far. I don’t see a great uptick from him this season and he could be on the bench by November.
Pittsburgh Steelers (8.5 wins) - The Steelers start the year with Russell Wilson under center but for how long? Justin Fields waits in the wings and this could turn into a season-long QB controversy. This team always plays hard and very disciplined under Tomlin and that is reflective of their winning record year in and year out. That will be tested this season. Win Total: Just over. Tomlin is simply one of the best coaches in the league and consistently gets more out of his teams than most could. They’ll win nine but they won’t be a playoff team.
Predicted Finish: 1. Cincinnati Bengals 2. Baltimore Ravens 3. Pittsburgh Steelers and 4. Cleveland Browns
AFC South
Houston Texans (9.5 wins) - Many might expect the Texans to take a step back this year but I’m not one of those people. Stroud has the poise of a 10-year vet and now has a legit #1 receiver in Diggs. The Texans’ defense is predicated on their pass rush and they should have a good one. The secondary is their biggest weakness but they’ll survive as long as the Texans front can get to the quarterback. Win Total: Over. The Texans are in line to take their second straight division title and be a playoff threat.
Indianapolis Colts (8.5 wins) - This could be a team that takes a step back in 2024. Quarterback Anthony Richardson looks like he’ll be a good one but he will go through some growing pains. He didn’t get a chance to do that last year, getting hurt early and giving way to veteran Minshew. Minshew has taken his lounge act to Vegas and that puts the spotlight on Richardson. He’ll have ups and downs and show the immense talent connected with his talent but eight wins feels right for this team. Win Total: Under. The Colts will be a playoff team in 2025 but not this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5 wins) - Trevor Lawrence didn’t suddenly forget how to be a dynamic quarterback and head coach Doug Pederson didn’t forget how to win. They’ll both bounce back this season and get back into the playoffs in what is a fairly weak AFC. Don’t discount the Jacksonville defense either. This team stumbled last year but it won’t define them. Win Total: Over, the Jags will battle the Texans for the division title to the end.
Tennessee Titans (6.5 wins) - Brian Callahan has been brought in to give a stale offense new life. He helped to groom Burrow in Cincy and will be tasked to do the same thing with Will Levis here. It will take him time to get the type of players he needs to succeed in this offense and this year could be a rough one. We’ll know by year’s end, however, if Levis is the guy to lead this team going forward. Win Total: Under. The Titans will need another draft to keep this build going.
Predicted Finish: 1. Houston Texans 2. Jacksonville Jaguars 3. Indianapolis Colts and 4. Tennessee Titans
AFC West
Denver Broncos (5.5 wins) - Rookie quarterback Bo Nix is 24 years old and has talent around him to succeed. Head coach Sean Payton struggled through a failed marriage with Russell Wilson last year but now has a QB that he can mold. The Broncos will sneak up on some teams and be better than advertised. Win Total: Over. They’ll be competitive each week and 8 to 10 wins is not out of the question.
Kansas City Chiefs (11.5 wins) - The Chiefs should dominate a week division yet again and they’ll use the regular season to gear up for another deep run in the playoffs. Mahomes has more weapons at receiver this year and that should save Kelce for the games that really matter. Win Total: Over. The Chiefs will finish with the AFC’s best record.
Las Vegas Raiders (6.5 wins) - Head coach Antonio Pierce is in his first full season and he made one of his first tough decisions, naming veteran Gardner Minshew as his starter. With Minshew, the Raiders will probably be far less volatile offensively and he’ll keep them in every game. Win Total: Over. Like Denver, Las Vegas has a fighting chance to get to 10 wins with Minshew running the show.
Los Angeles Chargers (8.5 wins) - It is going to take time for Harbaugh to turn this ship around. He will bring a sense of toughness to this team and will run the football. The Chargers don’t have the horses yet to be a threat but Harbaugh will get his chance to build around QB Herbert over the next two seasons. Win Total: Under. The Chargers are a year away but watch out when Harbaugh gets a team full of his type of players.
Predicted Finish: 1. KC Chiefs 2. Denver Broncos 3. Las Vegas Raiders and 4. LA Chargers
Most Overvalued AFC Team 2024: Los Angeles Chargers - 8.5 wins is a lofty goal for a team that has two new running backs, a less-than-stellar offensive line, and several missing weapons for a dynamic quarterback. They’ll have growing pains this season as they settle into Harbaugh’s system. Runner-up: Cleveland Browns (8.5)
Most Undervalued AFC Team 2024: Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen is good enough for 10 wins with his talent alone. They may not leap over this number with 12 wins but 9.5 is easy for the Bills to attain. They’ll easily get 10 and win the AFC East yet again. Runner-up: Jacksonville Jaguars (8.5)
