NFL Week 13 Betting Recap

NFL Week 13 Betting Recap

We enter Week 14, so let’s take a look at some of the betting implications from last week’s games from Thursday-Monday and the playoff implications.

(closing lines) (Home team in caps)

NFL

Thursday, Dec. 1

Buffalo (-3.5) over NEW ENGLAND 24-10/Under 44

This was a relatively easy win for the Bills, who were up 17-7 at the half. Josh Allen threw for 223 yards and two TDs. The story was Buffalo’s defense , which held the Pats to just 60 yards rushing and 14 first downs. The Bills also dominated in time of possession with 38:08 to 21: 52. The Bills are now 9-3, while New England fell to 6-6 and is chasing a wild card spot in the AFC.

Sunday, Dec. 4

Denver (+9.5) over BALTIMORE 9-10/Under 40.5

Denver led this game at the half 6-3 and was up 9-3 until backup QB Tyler Huntley ran it in from two yards. The issue for the Ravens was two-fold: Their offense was horrific for most of the game and then Lamar Jackson suffered a mild (PCL) knee injury after being sacked in the first quarter. Baltimore’s left tackle issue with Ronnie Stanley out was a complete mess as backup Patrick Mekhari was also injured and rookie OT Daniel Faalele was forced into action and struggled in pass protection. Denver’s defense has kept the Broncos competitive throughout the year, but their offense has been abysmal. Relying on three field goals from Brandon McManus is why the Broncos are 3-9 and has lost four straight. Russell Wilson completed 17 of 22 for 189 yards. Huntley, an expected starter this week against rival Pittsburgh threw for 187 yards and ran for 41 yards.

Cleveland (-7.5) over HOUSTON 27-14/Under 46.5

The story about the game was the return of Deshaun Watson to face his old team and play for the first time in nearly two years. Watson completed just 12 of 22 for 131 yards and threw a red-zone interception. Fortunately for Watson, he was playing the sorry Texans and Kyle Allen. The Browns built a lead thanks to a four-yard fumble return for a TD by Denzel Ward and a 76-yard punt return for a TD by Donovan Peoples. So if you had Houston getting 7.5, this was a tough loss. But a lot of it was on Allen, who was 20 of 39 for 201 yards with a TD and a pick. That was his last start as the Texans go back to Davis Mills in their next game (vs. Dallas). The Browns will be tested on the road against the Bengals in their next game.

NY GIANTS (+1.5) over Washington 20-20/Under 40.5

Yawn. Nothing like a tie in a divisional rivalry game. Washington was the better team for the most part with 411 total yards. Taylor Heinicke threw for 275 yards and two TDs with no picks (but lost a fumble). Brian Robinson ran for 96 yards and Washington had the ball for 41:11. But they needed a 28-yard pass from Heinicke to Jahan Dotson with 1:45 left in the game. Daniel Jones completed 25 of 31 for 200 yards and a TD and ran for 71 yards, while Saquon Barkley ran for 63 yards and a score. But despite getting six starters back in the lineup and three extra days of rest having played on Thanksgiving, the Giants couldn’t get the important win. They are now 7-4-1, while Washington is just behind them at 7-5-1 in the NFC East and a bye coming up.

DETROIT (-1) over Jacksonville 40-14/Over 51

Just when you thought the Jags were going to get another win, they take a step backwards. This was on the defense that gave up 340 passing yards to Jared Goff and 11 receptions to Armon-Ra St. Brown. Trevor Lawrence completed 17 of 31 for 179 yards and a TD for the Jags (4-8), who were down 23-6 at the half. Lawrence (sprained toe) suffered an injury but is expected to play in Week 14. The Lions have now won four of their last five games to move to 5-7 . They also picked up 31 first downs, had zero turnovers and just one penalty.

MINNESOTA (-2.5) over NY Jets 27-22/Over 43.5

The Vikings are now 10-2 and while they are dominating games, they continue to win. Mike White got the start for the Jets and while he played well at times 31 for 57 for 369 yds), he also threw two picks. The Jets produced a ton of yards (486-287), but didn’t finish drives and wound up with five Greg Zuerlein field goals with just one TD in six trips to the red zone. Getting behind 20-6 at the half didn’t help matters though the Jets had a chance to win at the end. But White had a fourth-and-goal pass fall incomplete and then had another chance with 10 seconds left. White was picked off by Camryn Bynum on fourth-and-10 with 10 seconds left near the goal line. The Jets fell to 7-5 on the season and will now face the Bills on the road in their next game.

Pittsburgh (-1.5) over ATLANTA 19-16/Under 42.5

Knock-knock. Who’s there? The Steelers at 5-7 are not out of the playoff picture yet. Rookie Kenny Pickett is not Peyton Manning in his prime, but he’s managing the offense. He did not commit a turnover for the fourth straight games after tossing eight picks in his first five games. He completed 16 of 28 for 197 yards while the defense got the job done. They forced Atlanta to kick three field goals and allowed just one TD. The held the Falcons to just 306 total yards and now face a struggling Baltimore offense likely without QB Lamar Jackson this week.

PHILADELPHIA (-4.5) over Tennessee 35-10/Under 45.5

Talk about a revenge game. A.J. Brown catches eight passes for 119 yards and two TDs against his old team, the Titans. Tennessee responds after losing two straight by firing GM Jon Robinson on Tuesday. It was a dismal effort by Tennessee with just 11 first downs and 87 rushing yards as the Eagles held Derrick Henry to just 30 yards on 11 carries with a long of six. Jalen Hurts continued his MVP-type of a season with 380 yards and three TDs with one rushing TD. The Eagles have the best record in the NFL at 11-1.

Green Bay (-2.5) over CHICAGO 28-19/Over 46.5

Justin Fields returned for Chicago and completed 20 of 25 passes for 254 yards and ran for 71 yards and a TD. But he also threw two picks. Aaron Rodgers, playing with a broken thumb, threw for just 182 yards with a TD, but the Packers ran for 175 yards on the Bears. They scored 18 points in the fourth quarter after being down 19-10. That included a 46-yard run by rookie WR Christian Watson. The Bears fell to 3-10, while the Packers are 5-8 and still holding out hope for a wild card spot.

SAN FRANCISCO (-5.5) over Miami 33-17/Over 46.5

Miami had problems protecting Tua Tagovailoa, who threw for 295 yards and two TDs, but also had two 3rd quarter picks. The Dolphins also gave up on the run, with just eight rushes for 33 yards. While Miami has offensive line issues and protecting Tagovailoa, the 49ers lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo in the first drive. Brock Purdy completed 25 of 37 for 210 yards and two TDs (one pick) in a solid performance. Jimmy G. suffered a foot injury and could return in the playoffs.

LA RAMS (+6.5) over Seattle 23-27/Over 40.5

The Seahawks won this game, but needed a TD with 36 seconds left on a Geno Smith 8-yard pass to DK Metcalf to get the win. Smith threw for 367 yards to give Seattle a 7-5 record. The Rams fell to 3-9, but they covered this game with John Wolford completing 14 of 26 for 178 yards with two picks and Cam Akers rushing for two TDs. Wolford may start on Thursday night against the Raiders, but the Rams just signed Baker Mayfield off of waivers, which means he could start the rest of the season with Matthew Stafford likely out with a neck injury.

LAS VEGAS (-2.5) over LA Chargers 27-20/Under 49.5

You can’t count the Raiders out. Not when you have Davante Adamas who caught eight passes for 177 yards and had two 3rd quarter TDs. Justin Herbert did his best with 335 yards passing and a TD. Derek Carr threw for 250 yards and two TDs with a pick and Josh Jacobs ran for 144 yards and a TD. The Chargers’ defense just didn’t get the job done allowing 404 yards. They also couldn’t run the ball averaging 3.3 yards per carry. The Chargers fell to 6-6, while the Raiders are 5-7.

CINCINNATI (+2.5) over Kansas City 27-24/Under 53.5

Another MVP candidate entered the room and his name is Joe Burrow. The former LSU star threw for 286 yards and two TDs to help the Bengals upset the Chiefs. The Bengals (8-4) did it without star RB Joe Mixon (concussion), who is expected to return this week. Samaje Perine rushed for 106 yards in his place and star WR Ja’Marr Chase returned from a hip injury to catch seven passes for 97 yards. The Chiefs fell to 9-3 as Patrick Mahomes aw held to 223 yards. Harrison Butker missed a 55-yard field goal attempt with 3:19 left after the Chiefs stalled.

DALLAS (-11.5) over Indianapolis 54-19/Over 44.5

Indy is down 21-19 heading into the fourth quarter and the Cowboys (9-3) exploded for 33 fourth-quarter points with five TDs. Dak Prescott had an ordinary but efficient game with 170 yards and an interception but threw for three TDs and a pick. But Dallas rushed for 220 yards led by 91 yards and two TDs from Tony Pollard. The defense came up big led by a 38-yard fumble recovery for a TD by Malik Hooker in the fourth quarer.

New Orleans (+3.5) over TAMPA BAY 16-17/Under 41.5

The legend of the G.O.A.T. continues. New Orleans amassed just 14 first downs but somehow led 16-3 going into the fourth quarter. But losing teams find ways to lose. Tom Brady and the Bucs found a way to come back with two late TD passes to TD Cade Otton and Rachaad White (six secs left). Tampa Bay improved to 6-6 and is on their way to winning the lowly NFC South where Brady is competing with rookie Desmond Ridder (Atlanta), Sam Darnold (Charlotte) and Andy Dalton (Saints).