NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

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(closing lines) (Home team in caps)

NFL

Thursday, Sept. 21

SAN FRANCISCO (-10.5/43.5) over NY Giants 30-12

Brock Purdy just keeps winning and getting better. He threw for 310 yards and two TDs in another comfortable 49ers’ win. Christian McCaffrey added 119 total yards as San Francisco won their 13th straight regular season game. The Giants were playing without star RB Saquon Barkley, who was out with an ankle injury. They basically did nothing offensively against a very good 49ers’ defense. Daniel Jones completed 22 of 32 for just 137 yards and a pick. The running game led by former San Fran back Matt Breida picked up just 29 yards on 11 attempts.

Sunday, September 24

LA Chargers (+1/53) over MINNESOTA 28-24

The Chargers finally got their first win, but it wasn’t easy. They also lost big receiver Mike Williams (knee) for the season. Keenan Allen was phenomenal with 18 catches for 215 yards and a threw a TD pass to Williams on a trick play. Justin Herbert completed 40 of 47 passes for 405 yards and three TDs. Minnesota did enough offensively on paper with Kirk Cousins throwing for 367 yards with three TDs and a pick. Justin Jefferson catching seven passes for 149 yards. But the Vikings had a chance to win this game after Brandon Staley (shocking) decided to go for it at his own 24-yard line on 4th-and-1 with less than two minutes to go. They failed (also shocking), but Minnesota couldn’t take advantage as linebacker Kenneth Murray Jr. made the game saving pick for the Chargers in the end zone. The Vikings are now 0-3 after going 13-4 last season. They have now turned the ball over nine times in their first three games of the season.

New Orleans (+1.5/41.5) over GREEN BAY 17-18

A tough loss for the Saints, who got off to a 17-0 lead in the first half. Tough loss for Green Bay bettors who had -1.5 or more. The Packers, who had no offense throughout most of the game, scored 18 points in the fourth quarter. Jordan Love completed 22 of 44 for 259 yards with a TD and a pick, but helped the Packers get the job done. Green Bay was helped out by several key injuries from the Saints in the first half. Derek Carr threw for 103 yards and a first quarter TD to Jimmy Graham before injuring his right shoulder after he was sacked by Rashan Gray, who finished with three sacks. Carr missed the rest of the game, as did Graham, was injured as well early on. The good news is that Carr’s injury is not serious and he has not been ruled out for Week 4. Jameis Winston took Carr’s place and completed 10 of 16 for 101 yards. He also did his job late in the game by getting the Saints into scoring position but rookie free agent kicker Blake Grupe missed a 46-yard field goal with 1:05 left in the game.

Houston (+9.5/43.5) over JACKSONVILLE 37-17

This might have been the biggest upset of the day next to Arizona. This was Houston’s first win of the season and first for new head coach DeMeco Ryans. Rookie C.J. Stroud threw for 280 yards and two scores, while Tank Dell caught five passes for 145 yards to lead the Texans. They also received an 85-yard kickoff return a for a touchdown by fullback Andrew Beck. Jacksonville was led by Trevor Lawrence, who threw for 279 yards and a TD with a pick. The Jags were outgained 404-366 and were -2 in turnover ratio. Kicker Brandon McManus missed a 48-yard field goal and had another field goal attempt blocked.

CLEVELAND (-3.5/38) over Tennessee 27-3

Another dominant performance from the Cleveland defense and a solid passing game from Deshaun Watson (27-off-33, 289) after the loss of star RB Nick Chubb (knee) in their previous game. The running game was still an issue with just 78 yards on 31 carries (2.5ypc). Myles Garrett completely dominated this game with 3.5 of the Browns’ five sacks. If they can get that kind of defensive performance nearly every game, they won’t miss Chubb as much. The Cleveland defense held Derrick Henry to just 20 yards on 11 attempts. Tennessee QB Ryan Tannehill completed 13 of 25 for 104 yards.

Indianapolis (+9.5/445) over Baltimore 22-19ot

This was one of the wildest games of the day. Matt Gay nailed five field goals, including four of more than 50 yards to lead the Colts to this near-miraculous road victory. They won the game with Gardner Minshew at quarterback, who started for rookie Anthony Richardson (concussion). Zach Moss rushed for 122 yards on 30 carries on a mostly rainy day. The Colts were outgained 364-327 by the Ravens, but Baltimore lost two fumbles from Kenyon Drake and Lamar Jackson. Baltimore’s injury problems continued as they came in with seven starters out due to injuries and lost RB Gus Edwards to a potential concussion in the second half. Jackson completed 22 of 31 for just 202 yards and rushed for 101 yards and two scores. On his incompletion to rookie Zay Flowers on Fourth-and-3 late in the overtime, it appeared as though Flowers was interfered with. Tight end Isaiah Lively also dropped a pass earlier that would have given Justin Tucker a potential game-winning FG (he missed a 61-yarder towards the end of regulation).

MIAMI (-6/44) over Denver 70-20

The most surprising score of the day came in Miami. There was nothing shocking about Miami beating Denver, but by 50 points and scoring 70 against what used to be a pretty good defense. It was a big day for RBs De’Von Archane and Raheem Moster who combined for eight touchdowns. The Dolphins amassed 726 yards of total offense. Before Sunday, not a lot of people knew about Archane, a third-round pick this year from Texas A&M. Archane had an incredible day with 203 rushing yards, 30 receiving yards and four total touchdowns. Russell Wilson threw for 306 yards with a TD and a pick for the Broncos, who are now 0-3.

New England (-2.5/35.5) over NEW YORK JETS 15-10

This was an ugly game as expected. The Pats came into this game having won 14 straight against the Jets and they kept it going thanks to a strong defense and another poor performance from New York QB Zach Wilson. The Jets had a chance after Wilson led them to an 87-yard TD drive late in the game to cut 13-3 deficit to three points. But after getting the ball back, Matthew Judon sacked Wilson in the end zone to record a safety with 2:19 left to preserve the win. Mac Jones threw for 201 yards and a TD, while Ezekiel Elliott added 80 yards on 16 carries for the Patriots. The Jets were not able to run the ball as Breece Hall and Dalvin Cook combined for just 36 yards on 20 carries.

Buffalo (-3/43.5) over WASHINGTON 37-3

So much for the great start for Washington. The Bills were all over young QB Sam Howell, who sacked nine times and threw four picks. Josh Allen had a pedestrian game with 218 yards passing, while Stefon Diggs caught eight passes for 111 yards in a return to his home state of Maryland. The Commanders were never really in this game as they trailed 16-0 at the half. The Bills have won two straight games to improve to 2-1. This game was all about turnovers as the ‘Manders turned it over five times and the Bills had just one.

DETROIT (-3/47.5) over Atlanta 20-6

The Lions’ defense and Jared Goff stepped up big in this game. Goff passed for 243 yards with two TDs. WR Armon-Ra St. Brown caught nine passes for 102 yards, while TE Sam LaPorta added eight catches for 84 yards with a TD. Detroit’s defense recorded seven sacks and held the Falcons’ rushing attack to just 44 yards. Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs outdueled rookie Bijan Robinson with 80 yards on 17 carries. He was replacing the injured RB David Montgomery (thigh), who could return on Thursday. Atlanta fell to 2-1 and when their ground game is stalled, they don’t have a strong enough passing game to overcome it. Desmond Ridder completed 21 of 38 for 201 yards with no TD and no picks.

SEATTLE (-5/43) over Carolina 37-27

For Seattle to be successful, they need balance. RB Kenneth Walker led the way with 97 yards on 18 carries with two TDs to led the way for the Seahawks, while Jason Myers booted five field goals. The Panthers fell to 0-3 with Andy Dalton replacing rookie Bryce Young (ankle). Dalton didn’t play poorly as he competed 34 of 58 for 361 yards and two TDs. Veteran WR Adam Thielen added 11 catches for 145 yards and a late TD. The Panthers actually led 13-23 at the half, before the Seahawks exploded with 25 second-half points and 10 in the third quarter.

ARIZONA (+11.5/43.5) over Dallas 28-16

Another huge surprise as the Cardinals shocked Dallas in front of many Cowboys fans in Glendale. QB Joshua Dobbs continued his solid play, tossing for 189 yards and a short TD pass to Marquise Brown with 7:22 left in the game. Dallas was a no-show defensively against a winless Cardinals team, allowing 400 total yards and 7.5 yards per play. Losing Trevon Gibbs to a season-ending knee injury just a few days earlier did not help their situation. Dak Prescott threw for 249 yards and a TD, but also a late-game pick to Kyzir White. RB Tony Pollard added 122 yards on 23 carries. Arizona kicker Matt Prater also had a big game led by a 62-yard kick as time expired in the first half to give the Cards a 21-10 lead.

KANSAS CITY (-13/48.5) over Chicago 41-10

The Chiefs took a 34-0 lead at the half and then took the foot off the pedal. Patrick Mahomes passed for 272 yards with three TDs, while Jerick McKinnon added two scores. Blaine Gabbert took over at quarterback late in the third quarter. The only concern for the Chiefs came in the first half when Mahomes appeared to injured his ankle). He returned in the second half, but that’s something to watch. As for the Bears, they were outgained 312-85 yards in the first half. With no defensive coordinator as Alan Williams resigned on Wednesday, head coach Matt Eberflus called the defensive plays and it well, didn’t work out tool well. What a mess in Chicago.

Pittsburgh (+3/43.5) over LAS VEGAS 23-18

The Steelers jumped out to a 23-7 lead and held on as the Raiders scored 11 points in the fourth quarter. Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett responded with a better game as threw for two TDs for this first time in his career and T.J. Watt added two sacks (not for the first time). Watt now has six sacks in three games. Jimmy Garoppolo was not good, even though he threw for 324 yards and two TDs, but he also was picked off three times. If you are a good defensive team and have issues on offense, it helps to have a strong kicker. Pittsburgh has one in Chris Boswell, who made three field goals including a 57-yarder in the third quarter.

Monday, September 25, 2023

Philadelphia (-5.5/44) over TAMPA BAY 25-11

The Eagles controlled this game in the bad weather thanks to their offensive line controlling the line of scrimmage. They rushed for 201 yards and held the Bucs to just 41 yards on 17 attempts. Their defense also picked off Baker Mayfield once and forced a fumble from Rachaad White. QB Jalen Hurts threw for 277 yards with a TD and ran for a TD, but also threw two picks. But the Eagles are off to a 3-0 start because of a solid defense and a running game now led by D’Andre Swift, who had 130 yards. WR A.J. Brown caught nine balls for 131 yards. Mayfield was subpar with 146 yards with a TD and a pick. Tampa Bay was held to just 174 total yards, while the Eagles recorded 472. Philly also had the ball for 38:55. That’s domination.

CINCINNATI (-3/45.5) over LA Rams 19-16

The key for the Bengals was their defense as Logan Wilson picked off Matthew Stafford twice. Cincinnati also sacked him six times. Stafford threw for 269 yards on 18-of-33 with a TD. Cincy QB Joe Burrow completed 26 of 49 for 259 yards with a calf strain. Ja’Marr Chase caught 12 passes for 141 yards, while Joe Mixon added 65 yards rushing on 19 carries. The Rams’ problem, aside from their offensive line, was that they could not run the ball consistently. The did rush for 71 yards on 13 carries, which is not bad in terms of yards