NFL Week 4 Betting Recap

NFL Week 4 Betting Recap

This was a strange week where Taylor Swift took up more headlines, but Zach Wilson nearly outshined Patrick Mahomes in New Jersey. Let’s take a look at each game from Week 4 and look at the betting implications that occurred and may also affect the line in Week 5 and beyond.

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(closing lines) (Home team in caps)

NFL

Thursday, Sept. 28

Detroit (-2.5/45) over GREEN BAY 34-20

The Lions jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead and never looked back. David Montgomery rushed for 121 yards and set a career-high with three TDs. Jared Goff threw for 219 yards with a pick and a TD. It was a rough night for Jordan Love and the offense. He did throw for 246 yards, but was picked off twice. Quay Walker had an incredible 19 tackles, but also picked up a costly penalty in the fourth quarter. The Packers lost this game in the first half when they amassed just 21 yards on 22 plays with three first downs.

Sunday, October 1

JACKSONVILLE (-3.5/42.5) over Atlanta 23-7 from London

Jacksonville jumped out to a 17-0 lead at the half and held on to beat the Falcons from London by 16. The defense won this game as the offense scored just one touchdown (a 30-yard TD pass from Trevor Lawrence to Calvin Ridley in the first quarter). Darious Williams had a 61-yard interception return for a TD. Demond Ridder struggled for the Falcons with two picks, while rookie running back Bijan Robinson added 105 yards with 14 carries. Lawrence completed 23 of 30 for 207 yards and a score, along with 42 yards rushing.

BUFFALO (-2.5/53) over Miami 48-20

This was expected to be a shootout and it was in the first half until the Bills pulled away to lead 31-14 at halftime. Miami’s defense was a no-show allowing 414 yards of offense. After putting up 70 points against Denver, Tua Tagovailoa threw for 282 yards with one TD and one pick. Rookie RB De’Von Archane added 10 yards rushing with eight carries and ran for two more TDs. But it was Josh Allen, who threw for 320 yards with four TDs and a rushing TD, who was the star of the game. He got help from Stefon Diggs, who made a great 55-yard catch-and-run for a score late in the second quarter.

Minnesota (-4.5/46.5) over Carolina 21-13

This game did not start out well for the Vikings, who were down 7-0 after Sam Franklin Jr. brought back a kickoff return for 99 yards. The Vikings needed a strong game from WR Justin Jefferson, who caught two TD passes. It was not a stellar game from Kirk Cousins, who completed 12 of 19 for 139 yards with two TDs and two picks. It was an ugly game for the Vikings, who improved to 1-3, while the Panthers dropped to 0-4. Bryce Young completed 25 of 32 for 204 yards in his return from an ankle injury.

LA Rams (-1/44.5) over INDIANAPOLIS 29-23ot.

The Rams blew a 20-0 halftime and 23-0 third-quarter lead and needed overtime to beat the feisty Colts by six. Matthew Stafford his star rookie Puka Nacua for a 22-yard pass for a TD on the first possession of the OT. Safford also played through a leg injury in the second half. Nacua wound up with nine catches for 163 yards. RB Kyren Williams rushed for 103 yards with two TDs. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson thew for 200 yards with two TDs, but completed just 11 of 25 passes. The Colts are 2-2 with their two losses coming at home.

Washington (+9.5/43) over PHILADELPHIA 31-34ot

Washington kept fighting back in this back-and-forth struggle. They were up 17-10 at the half and then the Eagles scored 14 straight points. Yes, the Eagles needed a 54-yard field from Jalen Elliott with 3:58 left in the overtime to win this game. Sam Howell led a very impressive drive at the end of regulation and threw a 10-yard TD pass to Jahan Dotson with no time left to get the game to OT. Jalen Hurts completed 25 of 37 for 319 yards and two scores. Both TD passes went to A.J. Brown, who had nine receptions for 175 yards. Howl threw for 290 yards with no turnovers.

Denver (-3/47) over Chicago 31-28

The Bears blew a 28-7 lead in this game and wound up getting outscored 17-0 in the fourth quarter. Sean Payton earned his first victory with Denver, but it wasn’t easy. His defense was horrible for the most part. Russell Wilson was efficient with 223 yards passing and three TDs. His 48-yard pass to Marvin Mims Jr. set up Will Lutz’s game-winning 51-yard field goal with 1:46 left in the game. For the Bears, Justin Field completed 28 of 35 for 335 yards and four TDs. WR D.J.Moore caught eight passes for 131 yards, while RB Khalil Herbert added 103 yards on 18 carries. The Bears have now lost 14 straight games going back to last October.

Baltimore (-2.5/41) over CLEVELAND 28-3

The Ravens were dealt a good luck charm when Deshaun Watson (shoulder) decided not to play. The Browns were already without Nick Chubb, so predictably they produced very little offense under rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Cleveland converted 4 of 16 third-down opportunities and that’s all you need to know about a Browns’ offense that produced just 166 yards. For Baltimore, they did what they needed,as Lamar Jackson completed 15 of 19 for 186 yards with two TDs passes and two TD runs against a strong Cleveland defense.

HOUSTON (+3/41.5) over Pittsburgh 30-6

Rookie C.J. Stroud helped the Texans improve to 2-2 with two TD passes to Nico Collins. Houston’s defense was another part of the story as they held the Steelers to just 12 first downs and outgained them 451-225. Pittsburgh QB Kenny Pickett completed 15 of 23 for just 114 yards and a pick, before suffering a knee injury in the third quarter. Mitch Trubisky played the rest of the game and could start this week, though Pickett wants to play. The Steelers also lost TE Pat Freiermuth to an injury and he’s not expected to play this week. Stroud completed 16 of 30 for 306 yards with two TDs and has not thrown a pick this season. Collins caught seven passes for 168 yards.

Tampa Bay (+4.5/41) over NEW ORLEANS 26-9

The Bucs improved to 3-1 with an impressive divisional victory. Baker Mayfield completed 25 of 32 for 246 yards and three short touchdown passes and a pick. This was supposed to be a much better offensive performance from the Saints, who got RB Alvin Kamara back from a suspension and Derek Carr played despite suffering a shoulder injury the previous week. Carr completed 23 of 37 for 127 yards with a fumble as the Saints recorded just 197 total yards and were held to three field goals from Blake Grupe. Kamara rushed for 51 yards on 11 carries.

TENNESSEE (+2.5/41.5) over Cincinnati 27-3

The Titans came up with a big win as Derrick Henry ran for 122 yards with a TD and a passing TD. The Tennessee defense was outstanding as they held the 1-3 Bengals to just 211 yards. Cincy is having some major problems on offense as Joe Burrow struggled, completing just 20 of 30 for 165 yards. They also lost WR Tee Higgins (rib) in the first half and then starting CB Cam Taylor-Britt left in the third quarter with a concussion. The Titans improved to 2-2 and just showed that they aren’t done yet despite having an aging quarterback and few weapons that are healthy.

LA CHARGERS (-5.5/48.5) over Las Vegas 24-17

Yes, the Chargers won and covered, but they don’t do anything with ease. This is a game they should have won easily because they faced a mediocre team with a rookie quarterback as Aidan O’Connell thew for 238 yards and a pick. It wasn’t a bad performance considering he was sacked by Khalil Mack six times. Jimmy Garoppolo missed the game due to a concussion. Los Angeles QB Justin Hebert completed just 13 of 24 for 167 yards with a TD and a pick, but also had two rushing scores. He struggled probably because his injured his left idle finger and wore a splint but played through it. The Chargers could really use RB Austin Ekeler (ankle), who should return in Week 6.

DALLAS (-6.5.43.5) over New England 38-3

Dallas bounced back nicely from a shocking loss at Arizona and dominated the Patriots, who produced just 10 first downs. The Cowboys’ defense was fantastic as they scored two defensive touchdowns in the first half (Leighton Vander Esch and DaRon Bland). Dak Prescott was efficient completing 28 of 34 for 261 yards and a TD. Mac Jones struggled with 150 yards passing and two INTs. He was removed for Bailey Zappe late in the third quarter. Zappe went 4 of 9 for 57 yards. Dallas has now won three games by 20 points or more.

SAN FRANCISCO (-14.5/43.5) over Arizona

The Cardinals didn’t cover, but they gave the Niners a tough game for three quarters. Then Christian McCaffrey took over. The early MVP candidate ran for 106 yards and three scores, while catching seven passes for 71 yards and a TD. Brock Purdy completed 20 of 21 for 283 yards and a TD. San Francisco has now won 14 straight games in the regular season and has scored 30 or more points for the seventh straight time. Arizona fell to 1-3, but played well at times. Josh Dobbs completed 28 of 41 for 265 yards and two TDs. The thing that held the Cardinals back were the nine penalties for 55 yards and that the defense allowed 30 first downs.

NY JETS (+9.5/41.5) over Kanas City 20-23

The Jets covered this one and the most important stat that came out of his game was that Zach Wilson completed 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two TDs. Their defense also pushed a very good KC offense to the limit. Patrick Mahomes threw for 203 yards and a TD, but also had two picks. Isaiah Pacheco picked up the slack with 158 total yards. The Chiefs led 17-0 in the first quarter and this looked like a typical Jets’ blowout on prime time. But Wilson found former Green Bay receiver Allen Lazard for a 10-yard TD pass early in the third quarter to tie the score at 20-20. The Chiefs needed a 26-yard field goal from Harrison Butker with 10:51 left to win the game that surprisingly held up.

Monday, October 2, 2023

Seattle (-2.5/46.5) over NY GIANTS 24-3

This was an absolute disaster for the Giants as Daniel Jones continued his poor play, especially without injured RB Saquon Barkley. He also dropped to 0-7 on Monday Night football. Rookie cornerback Devon Witherspoon came up big for the Seahawks with a 97-yard interception return for a TD and two of Seattle’s 11 sacks. Kenneth Walker rushed for 79 yards, but the offense was mediocre for the Seahawks as they produced just 281 yards. They didn’t need to be great against Jones, who had two picks and combined for 269 yards passing and running.