UFC 251 Prediction Preview and Odds Masvidal Replaces Burns
Big news recently surfaced as multiple reports place Gilbert Burns out at UFC 251. Originally to face Kamaru Usman for the undisputed welterweight title, Burns tested COVID-19 positive Saturday and willing replacement Jorge Masvidal is now set to duel for 170 lb honors.
Pending two negative COVID-19 tests from each this week, Usman and Masvidal will headline UFC 251 per MMA Junkie.
With eleventh-hour main event tweaks, this UFC 251 preview will reflect an evolving situation and install “Gamebred” and the “Nigerian Nightmare” as top bill players. Meanwhile, rolling Burns loses a major opportunity following his May 30 dissection of Tyron Woodley. The 33-year-old Brazilian found his stride winning four consecutive before falling ill.
However, even as some bettors felt Burns a dark horse vs. Usman, Jorge Masvidal steps in with higher ranking and an impressive 2019 run. For all his success, pending clean health, the major caveat sees Masvidal fighting the consensus no. 1 welterweight on six day's notice: a tough assignment for any opponent.
Current odds, found at BestFightOdds.com, reflect this and consider Usman a prohibitive -325 favorite over Masvidal (+250).
Leaving a trail of outwrestled, outstruck and outclassed competition in his wake, TUF season 21 winner Usman stands 11-0 in non-exhibition Octagon bouts. Holding the balance, reach and technique of a professional boxer -along with dominant wrestling and complete MMA tools, it's hard to envision prime Usman not outpointing Masvidal this weekend.
The 33-year-old was too versed for Covington, though Masvidal offers far superior boxing than his predecessor. That stated, it will take an arsenal to dethrone the most rounded Welterweight since Georges St. Pierre.
With respect to Masvidal's 2019 wins vs. Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz, Usman wields more critical offensive output than his good-not-great challenger.
The Prediction
Expect early exchanges between the two as "Gamebred" is the best boxer Usman has traded with. After absorbing enough Masvidal strikes to lose upright comfort, the champ will drop levels and repeatedly ground his veteran foe -top control will sway the judges toward Usman. Also, a three-inch reach edge will help the Hard Knocks 365 boss score jabs to set up those takedowns.
While Jorge Masvidal will enjoy solid moments, possibly winning one or two rounds Saturday, Usman will deploy all his craftsmanship to earn another 25-minute unanimous decision win.
Look for Usman to be heavy in mount and land enough striking damage this weekend to nullify Masvidal in a heated five-rounder.
Kamaru Usman by decision
Max Holloway (+195) vs. Alexander Volkanovski (-235)(Featherweight Title)
The co-main sees another title scrap as Alexander Volkanovski defends in an immediate rematch against ex featherweight ruler Max Holloway.
When the two fought last December, Volkanovski was too elusive and strong for Holloway. After banking the first three rounds using seamless leg kicks and body-head combos, Alexander "The Great" visibly perplexed his favored assignment.
For all his great work early, Volkanovski did fade, thus creating bet line tension for part two. "Blessed" did his best work from lefty in rounds four and five landing harder shots and taking an anemic significant strikes edge. Ultimately, however, Volkanovski's runaway third round, which saw the challenger outland Holloway 35-22, brought the Aussie an upset championship bid.
The Prediction
Expect more of the same this weekend. Holloway simply cannot match a fresh Volkanovski in either hand or foot speed. The 31-year-old's fleet combination work will render Holloway a semi-stationary heavy bag through 15 minutes. The final two rounds will again produce Max's best work, but it won't be enough to regain his familiar strap. In a constricting standup battle, Volkanovski's 2.5 inch reach will help as naturally larger Holloway sets late traps in this Fight of the Night front runner.
While Volkanovski figures to win, from a pure betting standpoint Holloway is a great pick for the upset. Still, Max looked frozen at times vs. his recent and upcoming opponent.
Alexander Volkanovski by decision
Jose Aldo (+205) vs. Peter Yan (-245) (Vacant Bantamweight Title)
The third title bout pits surging 135 pound lion Petr Yan against featherweight legend Jose Aldo. Now 33, Aldo has lost five of eight, but did look convincing in his bantamweight debut while losing a thin split decision versus former division head Marlon Moraes.
Meanwhile, Yan has blitzed Zuffa opponents along a 6-0 UFC start. "No Mercy's" last three wins have come against Urijah Faber, Jimmie Rivera and John Dodson. Yan's clinical dissection of Faber brought chills before a well-placed head kick netted the Russian spotlight glory.
The Prediction
At this stage of their careers Yan is a bit sharper than his battle-tested obstacle. Aldo is bigger and longer, though Yan can close the gap and eventually land two strikes for every one from Aldo. It is perplexing the former 145 pound institution has stopped throwing his patented kicks which famously hobbled the aforementioned Faber.
Exclusively a one-faceted standup machine, Aldo should repel Yan's early takedown attempts, however, while darting in and out and showing angles, the Russian's dynamic striking will edge the human chess match.
This fight is a bit closer than odds suggest, but Petr Yan is still a bit much for a lightly shopworn Aldo.
Petr Yan by Decision
Jessica Andrade (+175) vs. Rose Namajunas (-210)
When these fighters last met, Jessica Andrade landed an earthquake slam to pry top strawweight honors from "Thug" Rose Namajunas.
With no belt at stake, Namajunas is decidedly the more polished combatant in this rematch. Some could call Andrade's 2019 upset flookish in that she was being picked apart from every angle before striking paydirt with the rare KO slam.
Don't expect another lightening bolt Saturday.
The Prediction
Instead, expect Namajunas to deliver a second TKO loss to Andrade in as many Octagon appearances. "Thug" nearly halted the plodding, semi one-dimensional Andrade in their first rendezvous, look for the former to make good on that work early at UFC 251 while avoiding any freak scenarios from powerful "Bate Estaca."
Knowing Andrade's force, "Thug" will keep distance and land precise kick boxing until her opponent loses steam.
Rose Namajunas by TKO
Paige VanZant (+575) vs. Amanda Ribas (-850)
Once billed as the next women's division ball runner for her youth, good looks and hot Octagon start, Paige VanZant was derailed in 2015 by Rose Namajunas. After splitting her last four fights, "12 Guage" has been chased down and leapfrogged by her less heralded peers.
Expect well-rounded, unbeaten UFC prospect Amanda Ribas to justify heavy odds by exploiting VanZant's gaping technical flaws.
The Prediction
VanZant is a fine kick boxer and submission fighter. Unfortunately, nuance at an elite level never became part of her package. PVZ nullifies her distance work by lunging in off balance and more often than not, being taken down or deftly countered. Ribas will secure a takedown, find an opening and halt VanZant via ground strikes or submission.
Amanda Ribas by TKO
